Author Topic: Well, prepare for President Clinton the second (Read 1741 times)

MaterDominici · « **Reply #5 on:** March 15, 2016, 11:38:53 PM »

Quote from: Charlemagne

If you honestly think that Ted Cruz has more of a chance against Shillary than Trump does, you're beyond delusional. Only Trump even comes close to putting Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois in play in the general. Cruz's "evangelical" snake-handler bit won't play well in those places at all, but a street fighter like Trump will at least make it interesting. I don't give a rat's behind what Trump said about women or any other dead horse Matthew and Mater want to continue to beat, because Trump is the ONLY candidate who even has a shot of taking down the screeching feminαzι - if the FBI doesn't get to her first.

Now, you do actually have a point here. The only states that matter in the general are swing states. So, a national poll isn't the most useful.

Florida and Ohio are swing states and conveniently have very recent polling due to today's primaries.

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 49, Trump 41   Clinton +8
Florida: Cruz vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 48, Cruz 43   Clinton +5
Florida: Rubio vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Rubio 46, Clinton 47   Clinton +1
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Trump 42, Sanders 50   Sanders +8
Florida: Cruz vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Sanders 48, Cruz 41   Sanders +7
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 48, Trump 42   Clinton +6
Ohio: Cruz vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 45, Cruz 47   Cruz +2
Ohio: Kasich vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Kasich 57, Clinton 36   Kasich +21
Ohio: Trump vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Sanders 50, Trump 41   Sanders +9
Ohio: Cruz vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Sanders 45, Cruz 44   Sanders +1

MaterDominici · « **Reply #6 on:** March 15, 2016, 11:45:46 PM »

Quote from: Patricius

People who are for Trump are often afraid to reveal their preferences, because they fear to be judged by those who poll them!

This is true. Trump does better in anonymous polls than phone polls (you should reflect on that for a moment, but it's not the point of this conversation). That doesn't mean we can't look at the anonymous poll and see just how he fares... I'll find you one in a few minutes, but this below is easier:

Quote

Remember, 2-3 weeks ago, Trump was not supposed to win in Florida! Because, supposedly, all blacks and hispanics were supposed to be for Rubio. And tonight he won in a landslide!

Not true.
Trump has been shown to win Florida ... pretty much forever.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_republican_presidential_primary-3555.html#polls

Charlemagne · « **Reply #7 on:** March 15, 2016, 11:50:06 PM »

Quote from: MaterDominici

Quote from: Charlemagne
If you honestly think that Ted Cruz has more of a chance against Shillary than Trump does, you're beyond delusional. Only Trump even comes close to putting Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois in play in the general. Cruz's "evangelical" snake-handler bit won't play well in those places at all, but a street fighter like Trump will at least make it interesting. I don't give a rat's behind what Trump said about women or any other dead horse Matthew and Mater want to continue to beat, because Trump is the ONLY candidate who even has a shot of taking down the screeching feminαzι - if the FBI doesn't get to her first.

Now, you do actually have a point here. The only states that matter in the general are swing states. So, a national poll isn't the most useful.

Florida and Ohio are swing states and conveniently have very recent polling due to today's primaries.

Florida: Trump vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 49, Trump 41   Clinton +8
Florida: Cruz vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 48, Cruz 43   Clinton +5
Florida: Rubio vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Rubio 46, Clinton 47   Clinton +1
Florida: Trump vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Trump 42, Sanders 50   Sanders +8
Florida: Cruz vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Sanders 48, Cruz 41   Sanders +7
Ohio: Trump vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 48, Trump 42   Clinton +6
Ohio: Cruz vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Clinton 45, Cruz 47   Cruz +2
Ohio: Kasich vs. Clinton   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Kasich 57, Clinton 36   Kasich +21
Ohio: Trump vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Sanders 50, Trump 41   Sanders +9
Ohio: Cruz vs. Sanders   NBC/WSJ/Marist   Sanders 45, Cruz 44   Sanders +1

So, you show exactly two states' polling numbers - in the middle of March. Be honest: Do you think Cruz, an "evangelical" whack-job who believes in Dominionism and honestly believes he's some type of messianic figure, can pull independents, disaffected Democrats, and blue-collar workers the way Trump can? And remember this: Every single poll of note, whether it be Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Reuters, etc., had Shillary ahead by as much as 30 points the day before the Michigan Democrat primary. Polls mean nothing. If the Left really dreams of Trump getting the nomination as they claim, why all the sudden vitriol against him? It's simple: They're scared to death that he just might win.

MaterDominici · « **Reply #8 on:** March 15, 2016, 11:59:17 PM »

Quote from: MaterDominici

Quote from: Patricius
People who are for Trump are often afraid to reveal their preferences, because they fear to be judged by those who poll them!

This is true. Trump does better in anonymous polls than phone polls (you should reflect on that for a moment, but it's not the point of this conversation). That doesn't mean we can't look at the anonymous poll and see just how he fares... I'll find you one in a few minutes, but this below is easier:

Here you go. I took out all of the phone polls and included only Internet (anonymous) and automated phone (anonymous).

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton#!mindate=2015-07-01&estimate=custom&hiddenpollsters=abcpost,nbcwsj,cnn,fox,suffolkusa-today,quinnipiac,msnbctelemundomarist,mcclatchymarist,surveyusa

Polling Trend

Hillary Clinton 44.7%
Donald Trump 36.8%

MaterDominici · « **Reply #9 on:** March 16, 2016, 12:11:48 AM »

Quote from: Charlemagne

So, you show exactly two states' polling numbers - in the middle of March.

There are more, but they're not as recent. I can't give you future polls that haven't happened yet.

Here's North Carolina, another swing state.

North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton   SurveyUSA   Clinton 43, Trump 45   Trump +2
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders   SurveyUSA   Sanders 44, Trump 44   Tie
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Clinton   SurveyUSA   Cruz 48, Clinton 43   Cruz +5
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Sanders   SurveyUSA   Sanders 46, Cruz 42   Sanders +4
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Clinton   SurveyUSA   Rubio 49, Clinton 42   Rubio +7
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Sanders   SurveyUSA   Rubio 44, Sanders 45   Sanders +1

North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton   Elon University   Clinton 47, Trump 41   Clinton +6
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders   Elon University   Sanders 48, Trump 40   Sanders +8
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Clinton   Elon University   Cruz 46, Clinton 46   Tie
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Sanders   Elon University   Sanders 47, Cruz 43   Sanders +4
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Clinton   Elon University   Rubio 48, Clinton 45   Rubio +3
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Sanders   Elon University   Rubio 46, Sanders 43   Rubio +3

North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton   PPP (D)   Clinton 43, Trump 44   Trump +1
North Carolina: Trump vs. Sanders   PPP (D)   Sanders 44, Trump 42   Sanders +2
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Clinton   PPP (D)   Cruz 46, Clinton 43   Cruz +3
North Carolina: Cruz vs. Sanders   PPP (D)   Sanders 43, Cruz 43   Tie
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Clinton   PPP (D)   Rubio 49, Clinton 40   Rubio +9
North Carolina: Rubio vs. Sanders   PPP (D)   Rubio 45, Sanders 41   Rubio +4