but "Pastor Dowell" speaks as if it's a certainty
Well, in the non-catholic world, divorce is not a certainty but it's well nigh close to it. So, is Mr Dowell being extreme? Based on his statistics, no. Is Croix incorrectly applying non-catholic divorce rates to the Trad world? Probably. But what is the divorce rate for baby boomers - like 50%? Who's to say that the Millenial generation won't be higher? According to my experience the % of trad millenials who become atheists is pretty high. Also the # of trad millenials who leave tradition and accept the indult/novus ordo is VERY high. So, will they accept "catholic divorce" (which involves the courts) since new rome promotes this? Why not? It stands to reason that the divorce/"annulment" rate among Trads may INCREASE in the newest generation. So maybe Croix's fears are not unfounded, since his potential marriage partners are millenials...
Anyway, the discussion about statistics, and the divorce rate is irrelevant. Even if we could prove that the Trad divorce rate is only 5%, i'd still argue that the court system is rigged and since anyone can fall from grace and be tempted to divorce, then the need for a prenup still exists.