I have been waiting months for your proof that only the Church can attain moral certitude that one has committed the public sin of manifest formal heresy. All I have heard so far is crickets.
You (and Ladislaus) make the distinction between moral and dogmatic certainty. Ok, these 2 types do exist. But I don't think dogmatic certainty applies here, because we're not talking about "faith and morals" in a dogmatic sense. We're talking about sin/morality.
Secondly, to judge one guilty of manifest, formal heresy has to do with morals, and the DENIAL of dogma, but declaring someone a heretic isn't a dogmatic decree, but govt/moral one.
Dogmatic certainty has to do with an article of faith; a part of Divine Revelation; what I must believe. Moral certainty has to do with what I must do (i.e. what the Church decides or tells me how to act).
It is the Church that has the decisive authority to impose the reality on the consciences of all Catholics.
In this case, the judgement is not of a dogma, so there's no dogmatic certainty. The judgement is one of morals, a violation of faith, so it's related to moral certainty. It's not a LESS CERTAIN situation, but only a certainty of a different type. A judgement of this type couldn't be dogmatic, because it has nothing to do with Revelation, Scripture or Tradition.
However, this does not preclude the faithful from making a private judgment corresponding to the reality, and having their own consciences bind themselves prior to the Church's judgment.
A private judgement couldn't be considered 'morally certain', but only FACTUALLY certain. Or legally certain.
Nonetheless, the reality is the reality. The fact is the fact. The Church herself has stated (e.g., Canon 188.4 of the 1917 Code) that an office is lost by tacit resignation based on the FACT of public defection. This FACT is evident in regards to Jorge Beroglio. The Church simply needs to enforce that which is evident by removing Jorge Bergoglio.
If you're using Canon Law to make a judgement, then you can only be legally certain. Canon Law is a human/govt creation and, while it deals with morals, it is not a 'morally certain' guideline, unless the Church decides formally.
The second issue is, you're not even a canon lawyer and your "certainty" regarding your legal interpretations is (even if accurate) not certain at all, but only probable. If a number of canon lawyers agreed with you, then your opinion would rise to the level of "legally certain". But still, this is not morally certain, which only the Church can have.
Morally certain implies that one sins by NOT following or by doing something which is commanded or prohibited. So say that you can be "morally certain" of your own opinion, and thus, your PERSONAL conscience is bound only...this is anti-catholic and the definition of protestant private interpretation. Catholics don't/can't "bind" their own conscience; you go ask a priest or an authority, and THEY bind your conscience...but only based on a rule that the Church has put into practice. A priest/bishop (especially in Tradition, where they have no jurisdiction) is not allowed to bind anyone's conscience of their own decision, except in confession.