Author Topic: 2038, That Magical French Date?  (Read 671 times)

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Offline Caraffa

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2038, That Magical French Date?
« on: July 19, 2019, 02:50:34 AM »
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  • A claim that has been repeated on Catholic sites over that past few years is that by 2038, the majority of the priests in France will have been ordained in the Traditional Rite by 2038. That is, that priests from the NSSPX, FSSP, & ICKSP will be the majority of the priests in France in 20 years. Our old friend XavierXem likes to repeat this in a number of threads; however XX was not the first to come up this and instead copies and pastes this calculation from the blogger Centurio as well as other sites.


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    Meanwhile, as the SSPX continues to focus on the really important work of forming Priests, fostering Vocations, caring for orphans, teaching children in schools, forming strong Catholic Families, and the like, there's a good fruit of so-called Trad-ecumenism: If we combine the Society of St. Pius X, the Fraternity of St. Peter, and the Institute of Christ the King, Tradition is expected to have more Priests than mainstream Priests in France in just less than 20 years. https://centurioweblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/traditional-priests-in-france-until-2050.html?m=1

    In another thread, the claim is said this way:


    Quote
    (3) Traditional Priests (SSPX, FSSP, ICRSS etc) account for about 20% of the New Ordinations in France, and are projected to increase to more than 50% of all Priests by around 2038.

    Now, read that again. Your mind should recognize why that doesn't sound right. If priests from the NSSPX/FSSP/ICKSP make up 20% of the priests currently being ordained now, how are they going to be 50% of all the French priests by 2038? A bit too good to be true.

    The mistake lies in a misapplication of the retirement rate. The person, Centurio, who originally calculated the retirement rate per year of those priests ordained in the New Rite applied that same retirement rate for those currently ordained. In other words, he applied a 20% retirement rate to someone just ordained in the New Rite.

    So what percentage of the priests will the ConTrad groups in France make up by 2038? Once you work it all out with rough estimates, I'd say between 17% and 23% assuming current numbers continue.*  





    *None of this however, touches the issue of sacramental validity which is not in the FSSP's or ISKSP's favor.  
    Pray for me, always.

    Offline MMagdala

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #1 on: July 19, 2019, 02:59:00 AM »
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  • I wasn't aware of that prediction about the French priesthood, but I am aware of predictions of that same year, 2038, as the Second Coming.


    Offline forlorn

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #2 on: July 19, 2019, 05:47:51 AM »
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  • Also there's not much reason to care if Trad priests become the majority if they only do so by a gigantic decline in NO priests. It's not like it's people switching from NO to Trad Catholicism en masse, it's mostly people switching to atheism. 

    Offline SeanJohnson

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #3 on: July 19, 2019, 06:10:05 AM »
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  • Also there's not much reason to care if Trad priests become the majority if they only do so by a gigantic decline in NO priests. It's not like it's people switching from NO to Trad Catholicism en masse, it's mostly people switching to atheism.
    That, and the fact that the so-called “trad priests” are really just conciliar priests who say a read Mass (accepting V2, etc).
    Romans 5:20 "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."

    -I retract any and all statements I have made that are incongruent with the True Faith, and apologize for ever having made them-

    Offline 2Vermont

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #4 on: July 19, 2019, 06:47:21 AM »
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  • That, and the fact that the so-called “trad priests” are really just conciliar priests who say a read Mass (accepting V2, etc).
    This is what I was thinking.  
    "For there is not any thing secret that shall not be made manifest, nor hidden, that shall not be known and come abroad."- Luke 8:17


    Offline Pax Vobis

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #5 on: July 19, 2019, 08:33:04 AM »
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  • Will new-rome let the new-sspx ordain priests using bishops who are actually bishops?  Does the FSSP have bishops who were consecrated in the old rite?  You can use the old rite all you want, but if the bishops aren't really bishops (because they were consecrated in the new rite), what does it matter?
    .
    The new-sspx and all these indult communities are addicted to "hope-ium".  It's a powerful drug.

    Offline Mega-fin

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #6 on: July 19, 2019, 09:56:20 AM »
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  • This is such a denial of the real issue. 

    100% of the priests and bishops at the time of the Council were validly ordained and said the Traditional Mass. 

    Then what happened. They almost all switched over to modernism. 

    The TLM is not a marker of orthodoxy. 

    If these so-called “traditional” priests say the TLM but preach VII, NOTHING has been achieved, NOTHING is fixed, NOTHING is better, and in fact, I would argue that it would be worse, because those who appear to be good (saying the TLM) are killing souls by preaching believing and spreading the errors and heresies of VII. 

    At a Baptism, the priest asks “What do you ask of the Church of God?” And the answer is “Faith”. “What does Faith give you?” “Life everlasting”. The answer is the faith, not the TLM. 

    Offline Incredulous

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #7 on: July 19, 2019, 11:50:43 AM »
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  • Will new-rome let the new-sspx ordain priests using bishops who are actually bishops?  Does the FSSP have bishops who were consecrated in the old rite?  You can use the old rite all you want, but if the bishops aren't really bishops (because they were consecrated in the new rite), what does it matter?
    .
    The new-sspx and all these indult communities are addicted to "hope-ium".  It's a powerful drug.

    The neo-trad orders are forming an army of "hirelings in long cassocks". 

    These crypto-conciliar prelates have been trained to act and look like real traditional Catholic priests.


    Recall the two, back-to-back issues of Bp Fellay's Angelus Press in 2008, where he officially endorsed newChurch's invalid Sacrament of Holy Orders.
    "Some preachers will keep silence about the truth, and others will trample it underfoot and deny it. Sanctity of life will be held in derision even by those who outwardly profess it, for in those days Our Lord Jesus Christ will send them not a true Pastor but a destroyer."  St. Francis of Assisi


    Offline SeanJohnson

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #8 on: July 19, 2019, 01:08:09 PM »
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  • This is such a denial of the real issue.

    100% of the priests and bishops at the time of the Council were validly ordained and said the Traditional Mass.

    Then what happened. They almost all switched over to modernism.

    The TLM is not a marker of orthodoxy.

    If these so-called “traditional” priests say the TLM but preach VII, NOTHING has been achieved, NOTHING is fixed, NOTHING is better, and in fact, I would argue that it would be worse, because those who appear to be good (saying the TLM) are killing souls by preaching believing and spreading the errors and heresies of VII.

    At a Baptism, the priest asks “What do you ask of the Church of God?” And the answer is “Faith”. “What does Faith give you?” “Life everlasting”. The answer is the faith, not the TLM.
    :applause:
    Romans 5:20 "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."

    -I retract any and all statements I have made that are incongruent with the True Faith, and apologize for ever having made them-

    Offline XavierSem

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #9 on: July 20, 2019, 06:13:16 AM »
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  • Well, as we discussed on the other thread, number of Seminarians in SSPX Seminaries are at a 30 year high. I feel very good about the future of Catholic Tradition. But the resistance is not on the right path, sorry to say. Work with the SSPX, not against it.

    Here are more SSPX articles on the state of the Church in France. If Tradition triumphs in France, the home country of Archbishop Lefebvre, and it will, Rome will have to acknowledge Tradition is the solution to the crisis and the shortage in the Priesthood.

    ""Open since 1901, the St. Joseph Seminary of Bordeaux will close its doors at the beginning of September 2019. Jean-Pierre Cardinal Ricard, Archbishop of Bordeaux, made the announcement in a statement, May 18, 2019.  He wrote, “It is with a heavy heart that I make this decision, but the good of the seminarians and concern for their formation must take precedence over all other considerations.” https://fsspx.news/en/news-events/news/france-after-lille-bordeaux-seminar-closing-its-doors-48742

    So some of France's most important mainstream seminaries are in the process of closing. When will the authorities recognize Tradition is the solution?

    "The SSPX article below makes the case: http://www.sspxflorida.com/en/tradition-solution-for-priestly-crisis

    Tradition: solution for priestly crisis
    JULY 10, 2015
    SOURCE: DISTRICT OF THE USA

     
    If the "experiment of Tradition" is implemented, the ever-declining number of priests (and religious) that is being experienced by dioceses throughout the world can be reversed.

    The editor of DICI, Fr. Lorans, offers a brief commentary—and then a challenge from Tradition—on the tragic state of affairs afflicting the Church in France concerning the number of priests.

    In contrast to the dire situation faced by French dioceses (see the following news article for more details), the Society of St. Pius X continues to flourish as testified by its recent priestly ordinations:

    2 more priests ordained at Zaitzkofen (Germany)
    7 priests ordained at Econe (Switzerland)
    4 new priests ordained for the SSPX (Winona, MN - USA)
    In consequence of this year's ordinations, the SSPX now numbers over 600 priests.

    In fact, as made clear by Fr. Wegner's recent Future Fund appeal letter for the New Seminary Project (see the sidebar video), the SSPX's North American seminary is "suffering" from a different sort of decrease—a lack of room for the training of priests!

    From denial to challenge

    This year there were only 68 ordinations of diocesan priests throughout all of France and 52 ordinations of religious for a total of 120 new priests. It is predicted that there will be only 6000 priests in France in 5 years as compared to 15,000 today, because 10,000 of them are over 65 years of age, and 7000 are over 75.

    How will 6000 priests be able to serve parishes? The head of the Great Mosque of Paris has some ideas for putting former churches to good use in France (Europe 1, 6-15-2015), and Bishop Michel Dubost of Evry, who “prefers that churches become mosques rather than restaurants,” will be able to hand over the keys to him ...
    Do make Acts of Consecration to the Twin Hearts, Spiritual Offerings of the Precious Blood of Jesus in Union with the Holy Mass, like in St. Gertrude's Chaplet, along with Spiritual Communions at least every hour. The Saints say Spiritual Communions are a way to quickly advance to Union with God.

    Offline XavierSem

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #10 on: July 20, 2019, 06:16:24 AM »
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  • Faced with this inexorable drop in ordinations, specialist committees offer sociological explanations and expert consultations suggest psychological interpretations, while the conclusion is more demographically obvious every day: there are not enough new priests to replace the priests who die.

    This critical situation led one bishop to ask several years ago for permission to “make the experiment of Tradition.” But in the name of an ideological a priori, his request was denied: the Council is non-negotiable, post-conciliar reform is irreversible, the numbers that contradict it must be “Lefebvrist,” and must be treated accordingly with the disdain… Such is the denial of reality.

    But the facts are always there, and the experiment of Tradition can still be made. But for that to happen we must make an energetic denial that this decline is our destiny, and there must be a will to make use of the treasures offered by the Tradition of 2000 years… Such is the challenge!

    France: Drop in the number of ordinations this year

    Le Figaro of July 7, 2015, indicates that “the number of priests ordained in France has never been so low.” Indeed, the French bishops’ conference announced 68 ordinations of diocesan priests in 2015, down from 82 in 2014. Together with the 52 ordinations of priests from religious orders, this makes up 120 priests (diocesan and religious) who are ordained for the year 2015, as compared to 140 last year. This is the lowest number in the last 15 years.

    The future is hardly brighter, for only 87 diocesan seminarians were ordained to the diaconate in 2015 and are due to become priests next year. As Figaro columnist Caroline Picquet writes,

    the chronic drop in the number of priests in France has been concerning the bishops for a long time. The number of Catholic priests in France was almost halved over 20 years, moving from 29,000 (diocesan and religious priests together) in 1995 to around 15,000 in 2015. Experts predict that there will be only 6000 priests in France by 2020." 
    10,000 of them are over 65, and 7000 are over 75. And one bishops recognized the plain facts: “I ordain one priest per year, while I bury 12.” This means that many French bishops have not ordained a priest for 10 years.

    Le Figaro accepts this commentary fatalistically:

    In the diocese of Toulouse, the chancellor Christian Teysseyre has observed this permanent fluctuation from one year to the next. ‘On average, we have 1.5 ordinations per year, but this year we have not had any diocesan ordinations,’ he reports. ‘This is not the first time this has happened, it depends on the year. In 2016, for example, we expect to have three.’ In the diocese of Orleans, it varies a good deal. ‘This year, we have one ordination, versus four in 2014,'” 
    explains a layman involved with the Church who preferred to remain anonymous. 2012 and 2013 were more difficult years: “no ordinations.”

    This drop in ordinations is invariably accompanies, throughout the decades, a drop in the number of participants: in 1952, 27% of Catholics attended Mass; in 2010, only 4.5%, according to a study conducted by IFOP."
    Do make Acts of Consecration to the Twin Hearts, Spiritual Offerings of the Precious Blood of Jesus in Union with the Holy Mass, like in St. Gertrude's Chaplet, along with Spiritual Communions at least every hour. The Saints say Spiritual Communions are a way to quickly advance to Union with God.


    Offline Mega-fin

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    Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?
    « Reply #11 on: July 20, 2019, 07:50:06 AM »
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  • Faced with this inexorable drop in ordinations, specialist committees offer sociological explanations and expert consultations suggest psychological interpretations, while the conclusion is more demographically obvious every day: there are not enough new priests to replace the priests who die.

    This critical situation led one bishop to ask several years ago for permission to “make the experiment of Tradition.” But in the name of an ideological a priori, his request was denied: the Council is non-negotiable, post-conciliar reform is irreversible, the numbers that contradict it must be “Lefebvrist,” and must be treated accordingly with the disdain… Such is the denial of reality.

    But the facts are always there, and the experiment of Tradition can still be made. But for that to happen we must make an energetic denial that this decline is our destiny, and there must be a will to make use of the treasures offered by the Tradition of 2000 years… Such is the challenge!

    France: Drop in the number of ordinations this year

    Le Figaro of July 7, 2015, indicates that “the number of priests ordained in France has never been so low.” Indeed, the French bishops’ conference announced 68 ordinations of diocesan priests in 2015, down from 82 in 2014. Together with the 52 ordinations of priests from religious orders, this makes up 120 priests (diocesan and religious) who are ordained for the year 2015, as compared to 140 last year. This is the lowest number in the last 15 years.

    The future is hardly brighter, for only 87 diocesan seminarians were ordained to the diaconate in 2015 and are due to become priests next year. As Figaro columnist Caroline Picquet writes,

    the chronic drop in the number of priests in France has been concerning the bishops for a long time. The number of Catholic priests in France was almost halved over 20 years, moving from 29,000 (diocesan and religious priests together) in 1995 to around 15,000 in 2015. Experts predict that there will be only 6000 priests in France by 2020."
    10,000 of them are over 65, and 7000 are over 75. And one bishops recognized the plain facts: “I ordain one priest per year, while I bury 12.” This means that many French bishops have not ordained a priest for 10 years.

    Le Figaro accepts this commentary fatalistically:

    In the diocese of Toulouse, the chancellor Christian Teysseyre has observed this permanent fluctuation from one year to the next. ‘On average, we have 1.5 ordinations per year, but this year we have not had any diocesan ordinations,’ he reports. ‘This is not the first time this has happened, it depends on the year. In 2016, for example, we expect to have three.’ In the diocese of Orleans, it varies a good deal. ‘This year, we have one ordination, versus four in 2014,'”
    explains a layman involved with the Church who preferred to remain anonymous. 2012 and 2013 were more difficult years: “no ordinations.”

    This drop in ordinations is invariably accompanies, throughout the decades, a drop in the number of participants: in 1952, 27% of Catholics attended Mass; in 2010, only 4.5%, according to a study conducted by IFOP."
    XS, if you don’t want to see the problems for what they are, and want to sell the TLM for 30 pieces of apostate Roman conciliar silver, that’s unfortunately your choice. Ecclesia dei groups and indults and allowing the Latin Mass while maintaining that the NO and VII are good is poison killing souls and destroying the Church. If you want to work with modernist, liberal, apostate Rome, then that’s your choice. But continually shoving down our throats that more priests (with questionable ordination) are saying the TLM is a bandaid solution that we obviously aren’t going for. Look at what’s+ABL said about the indults. Read and study his last three interviews, One Year After the Consecrations, Two Years After the Consecrations and his last interview in Fidelitier in Jan-Feb 1991. He makes it very clear: tradition CANNOT work with the new apostate religion. 

     

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