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Author Topic: wars and rumors of wars  (Read 336 times)

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Offline Mark 79

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wars and rumors of wars
« on: July 24, 2025, 09:57:29 AM »
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  • Geopolitical Powder Keg Erupts: Thai F-16s Strike Cambodian Targets In Border Clash 
    https://www.zerohedge.com/military/geopolitical-powder-keg-erupts-thai-f-16s-strike-cambodian-targets-border-clash



    Offline Mark 79

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    Re: wars and rumors of wars
    « Reply #1 on: July 25, 2025, 08:07:02 AM »
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  • I was in Isaan a couple of weeks ago, taking photos near the Mekong when things were just starting, hence my special interest. The Cambodians are also harassing the Laotians. Without Chinese assistance, the Cambodians are seriously outclassed.  The odd thing? Cambodia has its own currency, the riel (1 KHR = US$0.000249), and even despite two decades of Chinese influence and investment, most  commericial transactions are still paid directly with jewbux. Jewbux are Cambodia's de facto currency.

    Thailand Warns Border Crisis With Cambodia "Could Escalate Into War"
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thailand-warns-border-crisis-cambodia-could-escalate-war

    The geopolitical powder keg along the heavily disputed Thailand-Cambodia land border has been lit this week, with both countries exchanging heavy fire. Thailand's acting leader warned on Friday that the conflict could escalate into a war.
    Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters earlier, "This situation could potentially develop into a war. At present, it is still considered an armed clash involving heavy weaponry."

    The Thailand-Cambodia conflict marks some of the worst cross-border fighting in decades, with at least 15 people killed so far - mostly civilians and one soldier. As the clashes enter their second day, over 100,000 people have been evacuated from the conflict area.
    On Thursday, Thai F-16 fighter jets bombed military targets (read report) in Cambodia. Both Southeast Asian nations have accused each other of starting the conflict.
    For over a century, Thailand and Cambodia have disputed sovereignty claims along parts of their shared 508-mile land border. Boundary ambiguities stem from colonial-era treaties and inconsistent mapping practices dating back to the 1907 Franco-Siamese agreement. A notable 2011 skirmish lasted one week with multiple fatalities.

    "The root cause of this issue lies in the lingering consequences left by Western colonialists in the past, and it now needs to be faced calmly and handled properly," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a meeting with ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn in Beijing.
    Media outlet Al Jazeera broke down how Thailand's military stacks up against Cambodia's in a side-by-side comparison

    Latest overnight headlines from the conflict area, courtesy of Al Jazeera:
    • U.S. advises citizens against travel within 50km of Thai-Cambodian border
    • China's Wang says 'root cause' of dispute a consequence of Western colonialism
    • Thai evacuees brace for long period of uncertainty
    • Thailand opting for bilateral solution, Cambodia negative: Thai Foreign Ministry spokesperson
    • In letter to UN, Thailand blames Cambodia for 'firing first'
    • Cambodian military says Thai forces attack seven locations
    • Thailand rejects international mediation to end Cambodia fighting: Report
    • More than 138,000 Thai civilians evacuated amid Cambodian border clashes
    • Thailand military denies targeting UNESCO World Heritage Site in Cambodia
    In markets, Thailand's baht fell .3% to 32.29 per U.S. dollar. The baht fell to a multi-year...
    "We do not expect that the border conflict to have sustained impact on the baht unless it significantly escalates," said Alan Lau, FX strategist at Maybank.

    A crucial understanding of this geopolitical powder keg is the alignment of major powers: China backs Cambodia, while the U.S. is a long-standing ally of Thailand.
    So what happens if Thailand invokes its security ties with the U.S. and Cambodia does the same with China?
    With U.S.-China tensions already flaring up with trade, technology, and global influence, a localized border conflict could quickly become a dangerous proxy flashpoint between the global superpowers.


    Offline Mark 79

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    Re: wars and rumors of wars
    « Reply #2 on: July 26, 2025, 01:03:05 PM »
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  • Day Three [MONTH 3!!!]: Fighting Spreads Along Thai-Cambodian Border, Mass Civilian Exodus

    by Tyler Durden

    Saturday, Jul 26, 2025 - 08:05 AM

    The escalating conflict along the highly disputed 500-mile Thai-Cambodian land border entered its third day on Saturday, leaving at least 33 people dead and displacing more than 168,000.

    Here are the latest military actions:

    • Thai navy and army repelled Cambodian attacks in Trat province.
    • Thailand deployed F-16 and Gripen jets to strike Cambodian rocket sites.
    • Cambodia accused Thailand of hitting civilian targets—claims Bangkok denies.
    Our latest coverage:
    Moscow-based American political analyst Andrew Korybko posed a critical question on Friday: What is Thailand's endgame if its border conflict with Cambodia spirals into full-scale war?
    Korybko's first take: "Demilitarization and regime change might be in the cards..." Read the note here

    The latest diplomatic efforts to defuse the tense border crisis:

    • Thailand insists that Cambodia cease hostilities before any ceasefire.
    • Cambodia accepted an ASEAN-brokered peace plan by Malaysia, which Thailand rejected at the last minute.
    • A UN Security Council meeting urged de-escalation and regional mediation.
    The military balance is tilted heavily in Thailand's favor (at the moment). Second, Thailand has four times the population and a GDP more than ten times larger than that of neighboring Cambodia. 
    The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) wrote in its Military Balance 2025 report that "Thailand has a large, well-funded military, and its air force is one of the best equipped and trained in Southeast Asia." 
    Thailand, a U.S. treaty ally, has F-16 fighter jets and modern weapons, while Cambodia relies heavily on Chinese military aid. Thailand has warned about possible Chinese-made missile strikes by Cambodia. 
    Yet another conflict is emerging in a world fracturing into a bipolar state. The war cycle rages on as major powers rush to build military arms, with threats of further conflicts looming (more here on the investing theme).