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Well, ladies and gentlemen, today this is an NEI's of Truth update. It is very early in the 11th of March. It's going to be relatively short because again, not that much happening on the front lines at the moment. And we'll go around the world relatively quickly. Well, on the front lines right now, the reason not much is happening is because we are in the middle of the Raskutnitsa, which means the coming apart or the smothering apart, I guess that's the best way or the liquefying apart. Basically, the ground turns to mush, that black earth mush. I mean, it's beautiful ground for farming. You can't export it, by the way, it's illegal to export or even sell inside of Russia. You can't bag it on the black earth that's in the black earth regions. And it sucks if you're walking through it. It sucks even more if you're in a vehicle that goes down straight into it. It is as bad as mud that brown mud is. This is worse by and far. It's almost like quicksand. And that's the situation right now. So for the next couple of weeks, things are going to be very slow. That doesn't mean there isn't movement on the front. We're seeing Eastern, well, the great Moon-Him Conference, Ukrainian counteroffensive in Eastern Zaporizhzhia has petered out. And in fact, the one that was north of Gulyay-Polya not only was stopped, but was crushed and reversed. And Russian forces are continuing to move westward toward Orekhov, about two, three kilometers. So they've moved, again, not as fast as you'd want it, because a lot of those forces are going to re-divert it to stop the northern Zaporizhzhia offensive that's east of Dobropolya, Dobropolya, Zaporizhzhia, not Dobropolya, Donetsk Republic. And they stopped it, stopped the cold. There's forces still building up on either flank of the Ukrainian forces, and they're going to basically take them and encircle them and destroy them. Ukrainians are out of steam, they can't advance any further, but they're still there. And they took really heavy casualties, but they don't care. They don't care how many people they lose, particularly when it's most of these guys partly right off the street. So that's the situation there. 

Up north, Russia's continuing to advance toward Sumy. It's about 13 kilometers outside of Sumy and closing. Now, Sumy is not a huge city. It's the capital of the province, a city of about 200, 250,000. But once you take it, it is a key logistics point because of the different road networks that go through it. Once Sumy falls, basically Kharkov in the far west will be cut off. So it will be much harder to supply Kharkov except from the south-southwest. Russia is also expanding its buffer zone up and down the Kharkov region. It's cutting, it's pushing back the Ukrainian forces. And Kharkov itself is only about 25 kilometers or so from the edge of the Russian positions in the north. In the east it's a bit further, plus there's a big water reserve between Kharkov and the Russian forces heading westward toward Kharkov. It's off of the Serebryanka River, which means Silvery River, Serebryanka. Constantinovka is still going on. Some people are saying it's going to fall in a couple of weeks. I don't think so. This is going to be a much longer fight because the Ukrainians are just throwing everything in it. Now the two parts of the city have been split. The bridges have been blown, particularly right now the water is high and it's still very cold. It's not freezing, but it's not that high above freezing. So the two parts of the city have been cut off from each other. And Russia is advancing on the southern half, the east of the southern half of the city. So you see more advances. But it's still about 20-25% in Russian hands. And the Ukrainians are fighting hard for it because they can't afford to lose it. It's one of the last three fortresses. 

Meanwhile, the north, so you've got the Yaman. Instead of charging through the Yaman and doing a head-on, Russian forces have flanked the Yaman and they're working their way down to cut off the last big bridge that feeds the Yaman, and that's on the Oskol river, if I remember correctly. And actually there, I think it's already a Serebryanka. The Oskol falls into the Serebryanka. And there, once that bridge is taken, Krasnoyy Yaman is effectively cut off. That's it. The logistics are cut off. And that garrison there is going to be looking at either surrender or slow but steady destruction as their ammunition runs out, as their provisions run out. It's about a 10-kilometer stretch from the edge of Krasnoyy Yaman to the bridge. So it's not, there's a big circle going up around the south edge going, it's already behind, Russian forces are already well behind the city. And they're closing in on the road itself, and then there's the bridge further south. I think it's going to be taken, probably taken relatively soon. That's the rough situation right now. There's some small territorial movements here and there, especially toward Dobropolje, Donetsk and Donetsk Oblast, or People's Republic. But overall, it's small progress, considering the terrain you're traveling over is mud. It's going to be that way probably for at least the next two to three weeks. It's the off-season. It was always the off-season for both sides. World War II was no different. That was the quiet time, more or less, I guess, if you can have a quiet time these days. Drones going to fly over it, not just planes. 

So what else have we got? Well, Ukraine has gone full terror mode, nothing to be surprised. Two days ago, they struck a children's hospital in Donetsk. I think it was under repairs, I'm not sure, at least a portion of it was. And they did a very good job in destroying it. And those were Heimarm missiles, by the way. So some American general decided that was a good location to strike. And he told his American mercs to launch that. And one of those Heimars, as a matter of fact, up further north, in I believe it was Harikov obelisk, it got to burn. And they got to go see St. Bandera in hell. Yeah, it works like that, too. Grand II drones, which have a range of about 500 kilometers and are controllable now by joystick, not just location and target coordinates. Hunted that Heimars down after fired off its missiles. Yeah, and burn it. There was a Russian gas tanker that was hit near Molotov. This was a couple of, oh, this is probably about four or five days ago. What's interesting about this is they're blaming this on the West is declared as a great hit by the US, which would mean that either consider also there was a hit like this by about two months ago on a tanker floating by or steaming by the Aegean islands and drones. I'm sorry, the drones came flying in from that island, from Greek territory. So this is one of two things. Neither is good for either Malta or Greece, because they either didn't know that anybody was launching something off their territories, which means they have no control over their own territories, or they didn't know, which means they're now an active participant in the war. We're just going to be realistically speaking, because they're allowing their territories to be used for terror attacks, knowingly the government. That means the government is a sponsor of terror. 

Now, do I think these were Ukrainians? No, I do not think these were Ukrainians. This is more than likely MI6 and SAS. They like doing terror. They like murdering civilians. They like getting civilian infrastructure. They're Russophobic as hell. They wouldn't have a reason to be alive if it wasn't for hatred of Russia. I see British fingerprints all over this, if you ask me personally. So, Hexeth, he came out with, you know, you hurt Americans, you're intent to hurt Americans, we're going to come get you, in so many words. Big man, big man, big man. Couldn't probably plan his way out of a wet paper bag, but he likes to dance in his little Pee Wee Herman outfits. Those little super tight suits that are just not quite long enough here, and they're always short. Anybody that remembers Pee Wee Herman, that's Pee Wee Herman right there. The Milsim version, the Zionist Milsim version of Pee Wee Herman. I've got a question for Pete Hexeth. You ever heard of a guy by the name of Gonzalo Lira? Yeah, he was a US citizen. He was a journalist. Let's see, where did he die? Somebody decided to hurt him. They hurt him right to death. Oh, where did he die? Where did he die? Oh, I know where he died. He died in custody of the SBU, because he used to live in Kharkov. Yeah, so your proxies murdered yet one more American, and what did you do about it? Oh, not a damn thing. What are you going to do about it? Oh, not a damn thing. So Mr. Big Mouth, there are no rules in war, and I'm one of the big men, and I can do whatever I want. War criminal that one day was going to stand trial, and is going to be screaming, well, did Trump told me to do this? Which isn't going to work for your defense, because if you're about to read anything, you might figure out that, you know, it didn't work for Nuremberg. It sure as hell is not going to work for Hexeth. So, yeah, there you go. Taking care of Americans. Well, sometimes. At least the ones that matter. And obviously, an independent journalist, Gonzalo Lira, an American citizen, just didn't matter. It still doesn't. Sad. Sad. 

But how about this, P.D., old boy? How about this? How many of the men and women under your responsibility, Mr. Secretary of War, are going to be dead in Mexico because you, Mr. Secretary of War, well, your department or your ministry, your department there, is supplying weapons to Ukraine, and they're selling them off to everybody to the tune of 70% of weapons confiscated in Mexico are traced back to Ukraine. And we're not talking, you know, pistols and rifles here or assault rifles. We're talking javelins. We're talking stingers, baby. We're talking drone warfare with top-right, top-notch training by the Ukrainians. Aren't you just proud? The men and women that you're so happy right now, you want to throw away their lives on an attempted invasion of Iran, which is past insane, but so are you, but in a bad way. Oh, so it's also in a bad way. You know, it's only a mountainous country with rows upon rows of mountains. I don't know, have you ever looked at a contour map of Iran? Missy Hexeth there? Peewee Hexeth? Have you? Have you, Peewee? Have you? Maybe you'll notice rows of mountains. Do a base relief one, what, 3D ones, they have those out. You may even be able to afford one. They're actually pretty cheap subscriptions. Even Google Maps will probably do that for you. And then compare how high those mountains are to the Appalachian Mountains. Nope, nope, they're much higher, yeah. Euro Mountains, you wouldn't even know where the Euro Mountains are, would you? The Alps, maybe you've heard of the Alps. I'm sure you've heard of Rocky Mountains. I mean, even you've probably heard of Rocky Mountains. Yeah, they're kind of like that, except on a much drier terrain. So you're going to tell the 82nd Airborne, or 101st Airborne, or 3rd Mech, or 10th Mountain, at least the 10th Mountain is a mountain, that they didn't really do that well in Tora Tora, that they have to push their way through a half million Iranians? Okay, say the other Iranians are all busy and they just drop a hundred thousand Iranians who are really, really pissed off and really want to let your guts out for murdering their children and their women, and they're locked up in those mountains and they're waiting for you, and you have to push your way through about a thousand kilometers to get to Tehran. Okay, sure, why not? Not you care. I mean, look how many Americans are going to be dying or already dying on the border, because, hey, you guys give Ukraine weapons that all disappear. Oh, and now your excuse. Now your excuse. As Trump, by the way, watch this video, as Trump throws everybody under the bus, Trump is desperate with Iran, and he's throwing them all under the bus. I'll repeat this, the update on the war in Iran and the Global South. But yeah, so what are you going to do? What are you going to do? Weapons are coming into Mexico from Ukraine. Ukraine, which is the biggest hub of child porn, children for pedophiles, cнιℓd тrαffιcking and organs, organ dealing in general with the government, taxes organs that are, quote, legally exported out of the country. Human organs, they're taken from living bodies, not dead bodies. Can't take organs from volunteer dead bodies. One billion dollars, I think, was the tax revenue from organ sales. Country's in a war. You think you need organs going the other direction, save the soldiers' lives. But, you know, they're young, they're healthy. Take their organs. It's only a scratch. No, it's terminal. We will make sure it's terminal for you. Get more organs, get more schoolers. We need more money. We sell more organs. It's only bio matter. Yeah, yeah, so that's how that goes. Ukraine, real Western values. And they are. They absolutely have all the Western values. All of the Western values. Democracy is down. Absolutely. I don't believe in democracy because democracy is a shell game at best. Freedom of speech? Absolutely. We've taken care of freedom of speech. It's gone too. Selling our, exploiting our population for organs and whatever, just to make more money on them? Absolutely. Shutting up any opposition, that goes without saying. It's the modern terrorist dictatorship. 

And what has this modern terrorist dictatorship done? Well not only did it hit the children's hospital, today it hit Bryansk. Just shot a rocket or a missile into, a ballistic missile into Bryansk. Killed six people, wounded 37 others. Why not? Yesterday, two days ago, they took out a family in a car. One little boy survived. His brother and parents were dead. That happens constantly. They use FPV drones to attack civilian vehicles constantly. I've seen the results of burning civilian vehicles, corpses and all. I've driven by this stuff. They do this all the damn time. All the damn time. They hit Zaporizhzhia in a village called Viktorivka, Vitalivka. Luckily nobody died. They hit a market with a drone. It's an airplane style type drone. Wounded two people. Just a market. People going to buy some fresh produce or some meat or something like that. In this small town, small village's central market. That's right. That's America's bad boy proxies. That America so loves. Because you know, Mr. Trump hasn't cut off intelligence sharing. He hasn't really cut off the weapons. He hasn't cut off the ammunition flow. He hasn't cut off anything. He's made lots of promises and innuendos. But yeah, I'm sure the girls he was having got plenty of innuendos too. And promises. But that's right. So, just quickly, we'll go over the Austro-Hungarian Bloc. That's what I'm calling them. Versus Ukraine, NATO and EU. Because the Austro-Hungarian Bloc is in EU and NATO. And two members of the Austro-Hungarian Bloc, Slovakia and Hungary and Romania, which isn't part of it, but left aside, have all been attacked by Ukraine. Not only did a man married to a Ukrainian agent try to murder the president of Slovakia, Fytsko took five rounds to the chest. A man is a machine. He took five rounds to the chest. He didn't pass out, if you noticed, they were carrying him out. He was still trying to walk. He took five rounds to the chest, survived, recovered relatively quickly. And he wasn't any bit cowed by Ukraine or Ukraine special forces through a honeypot, trying to get him αssαssιnαtҽd. I mean, most men would probably declare war right there on that. Well, no, he yelled off. So Ukraine has cut the oil transport, citing its damage and all that. Has insulted... And then, by the way, Ukraine also attacked the oil refineries or luk oil, fully owned or partially owned joint venture luk oil oil refineries in Hungary, Slovakia and Romania. Which is really stupid on Ukraine, these people are ignoramuses. Considering that those oil refineries produce a lot of diesel, and 20% of Ukraine's diesel used to come from Slovakia and Hungary. Which, with all the bitching and complaining, were still feeding the nαzιs next door. And, by the way, all the electricity for... Well, a lot of junk electricity for the Volvo and those areas came from Slovakia. It's all cut off now. And while we're at it, you know, Zelensky, he's a wannabe thug, he's a wannabe player. He is a player. He is a piano playing... or a piano... penis playing... or penis playing... or... what am I trying to say? Piano penis player. That's it. That's the word we want. That's what Zelensky is. He's a player, man. Boy, I'm a player? I'm going to play you like a... And what do you say? I think I'm going to give my telephone to the contacts of Mr. Orban. Over to my boys! And my boys and the armed forces are going to have a little talk with him. You know. If he wasn't so bi-queer Zelensky, he may actually be dangerous. His nose definitely is. It's snorted anything and everything that's ever been made on Earth. And it'll snort some more. So he... actively... threatened. Like a wannabe mafioso gangbanger. FITZO. Orban. The president of Hungary. And it was such an insult that even Orban's main opponents for the elections, or liberals as hell, had to say something and said we will defend Orban because nobody gets to threaten our prime minister. Of course, Orban's opponents are absolute sell-outs. They're absolute sell-outs. They're absolute puppets of... van der Leyen. And would be... have their pants down in front of Zelensky before the last vote was ever cast. But they still had to say something, at least for the elections, not to look like total wet rags. 
But, I mean, this is basically a cause of balance for war. I mean, everything that Ukraine's done, it's basically already at war in a terrorist mode of war against... directly against Slovakia and Romania. Slovakia and Hungary have committed crimes against Romania. And Czech hasn't said anything loud enough yet to get all the... get all the anger and all the other forms of anti-loving from Zelensky and company. But who's to hope the anti? You see, the kickback scheme works very straightforward. They... for all these contracts and the begging, they get a number of kickbacks. And a pair of those kickbacks were being driven directly through Hungary by two armored trucks, seven guys, including a former... I think it was director of intelligence of Ukraine. And they were arrested with about 80 million euros in cash and gold. And after a day, these guys were released to Ukraine, but the money stayed in Bucharest. I'm sorry, Budapest. So we'll see, and we'll see how it's going. 
The Ukrainians are all screaming bloody murder about, oh, it's innocent money flowing into Ukraine from Austria. So what exactly did you sell in Austria for 80 million euros in physical money to be transferred to you? Money, you know, fiat currency and gold. I mean, obviously nothing digital because digital can be tracked. Gold can be melted down. Money is money. It could be tracked, but it won't be. This is cash. So we have this quandary. We have this quandary. Where did the money come from? We don't know where it ended up, but where did it come from? Who was getting their little kickbacks? Who was screaming the loudest? Well, the minister of foreign affairs in Ukraine is screaming very loud. So maybe he, that's unfortunate. His little bonus that he didn't get. Who knows? Who knows? That money would sure go well to replace a rebuild of Children's Hospital in Ukraine that was blown up, wouldn't it now? There's compensation for the people it killed on a daily basis. When it's not killing its own, it's definitely, well, it's not killing Russians, it's killing its own. But it likes killing its own, too. 
So that's where we stand right now. All the allies, of course, are back on the Gulf and it's going to be there for a while. And that's going to have, it already is having ramifications up and down. BRICS is having big problems because Modi has betrayed BRICS. Modi's become a whore of Israel. Total rag. And very quickly. To a point where nobody can even understand why now. So quickly. We will discuss this on the other updates. Okay. God bless. Hit like, support the channel anywhere you can. Tell your friends, tell your enemies, tell your mother-in-law. And kiss her on the cheek and tell her, you know, that she's the best mother-in-law you ever had. Cheers. God bless.

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AI SUMMARY AND OUTLINE
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SUMMARY 
The video transcript provides an update on the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe, highlighting the slow military progress due to challenging terrain, particularly the Raskutnitsa (muddy ground) in Ukraine, which hinders both sides. Russian forces are advancing in Sumy and Kharkov, aiming to cut off Ukrainian supply lines, while Ukrainian counteroffensives in Zaporizhzhia have stalled or been reversed. The situation in Krasnoyy Yaman is described as a logistics chokepoint, with Russian forces closing in on the city. The transcript also details alleged Ukrainian terror attacks, including strikes on a children’s hospital in Donetsk and a gas tanker in Molotov, which are attributed to British intelligence (MI6/SAS) rather than Ukraine. The speaker criticizes the U.S. for arming Ukraine, which has led to weapons being sold to Mexico and potentially escalating conflicts in the Global South, including Iran. Political tensions are noted, with Ukraine accused of attacking oil infrastructure in Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania, and Zelensky mocked as a "gangster" and "piano penis player." The transcript also mentions BRICS facing challenges due to India’s alleged betrayal of the alliance, and ends with a call to support the channel. 

OUTLINE 
- **Military Situation** 
  - Slow progress on the front lines due to Raskutnitsa (muddy terrain) in Ukraine. 
  - Russian advances in Sumy and Kharkov, targeting logistics hubs and cutting off Ukrainian supply lines. 
  - Ukrainian counteroffensives in Zaporizhzhia stalled or reversed, with Russian forces moving westward. 
  - Krasnoyy Yaman under siege, with Russian forces cutting off the city’s logistics and preparing for encirclement. 

- **Territorial Conflicts** 
  - Russian forces advancing toward Kharkov, with the Serebryanka River acting as a barrier. 
  - Fighting in Constantinovka, where Ukrainian forces are holding a divided city despite heavy casualties. 
  - Flanking maneuvers in the Yaman region to cut off the last bridge, isolating the garrison. 

- **Terror Tactics** 
  - Alleged Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets, including a children’s hospital in Donetsk and a gas tanker in Molotov. 
  - Accusations of British intelligence (MI6/SAS) involvement in these attacks, not Ukraine. 
  - Criticism of Western support for Ukraine, linking it to civilian casualties and proxy warfare. 

- **Weapons Supply Chain** 
  - U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine are being diverted to Mexico, fueling regional conflicts. 
  - Concerns over weapons like Javelins and Stingers being used in potential Iranian conflicts. 
  - Criticism of NATO allies for enabling Ukraine’s aggression through weapon sales. 

- **Political and Diplomatic Issues** 
  - Ukraine accused of attacking oil infrastructure in Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. 
  - Assassination attempts on Slovakian President Fytsko and threats against Hungarian PM Orban. 
  - BRICS facing strain due to India’s alleged betrayal of the alliance (supporting Israel). 

- **Personal Attacks and Criticism** 
  - Zelensky mocked as a "wannabe thug" and "gangster," with comparisons to mafia figures. 
  - Accusations of Ukrainian officials exploiting the population for organ trafficking and corruption. 
  - Mention of journalist Gonzalo Lira’s death in Ukrainian custody, criticized as a Western-backed proxy attack.

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G'day, legends. I hope you are having a fantastic day and so far you're having a brilliant week. Firstly, thank you for all of the wonderful birthday messages that I received yesterday. Now, legends, it has been 12 or 13 days since we have done an update on the war in Ukraine. Why? Well, because there is a much larger war, a war that involves much larger powers and involves the entire globe happening in Iran. This is not just limited to the Gulf states, it's not just limited to Israel, America, Iran. The global consequences of that war are massive. That is why all eyes have been in that direction, including my own. But today we will have an update on Ukraine. We will talk about how that conflict will, of course, directly influence and affect this conflict. A lot of this video today is going to be on data from January, February. It's going to tell us about the state, the overall state of the war, what we are seeing, both losses of vehicles, loss or gain of territory. And this will be an extension of our video that analyzed the data far deeper than this video will, but analyzed all the data from 2025, from troop losses to vehicle losses, specific types of vehicles lost, as well as territory. I'll link that video down below. We'll talk about all of that. We'll have a quick look at the maps. We'll look at oil. We'll talk about this tension between Ukraine, the EU together, most of those states, versus Hungary, Slovakia, a real threat to kill Viktor Orban, the leader of Hungary, also what Slovakia said about this, and then Hungary taking a lot of money. It's hard to get an idea, but tens into the hundreds of millions of dollars from a Ukrainian armored vehicle movement or a cash in transit vehicle. We'll talk about that. We'll look at then, of course, the effect on the Druzhba pipeline, because what do we know? Well, if you're selling something in demand, well, prices will go up. And what is in demand? Oil and gas. Why? Because the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, except if you're a Chinese vessel. So let's look at this. Now, this isn't the best numbers possible. Why? Because we can't get super up to date figures, but you will be aware if you filled up petrol or diesel in your vehicle in the past week, how much more expensive it's been. Why? Well, we see this. We see over the month the lift in crude and Brent, and of course, in gasoline. You've seen all of this go up, not only crude products, but also refined products. Why? Strait of Hormuz, those Gulf oil and gas giants. The pain, in my opinion, the real pain of this is still yet to come. But why is this important for this war? Well, we've heard about many different wonder weapons, wonder warfare, but really how Russia makes ends meet, the bottom end dollar of this is on their oil price.

And we've seen this as a common theme through the war, as we need to affect the oil. The problem is great states like China and India buy it hand over fist. And then Europe and everyone else buys a refined product from them. It says that it's Indian oil, but what the Russian budget requires a price of at least their budget for the last year was an average, average, remember, of $56 a barrel, which it did sit above that. It was downgraded, I believe at 64 originally. Now, Urals crude as of the best measurement that I can get, which is March the 9th is just over a hundred USD a barrel. Now, Urals, at least from the tracker that I use, it doesn't update as frequently. As you can see, others have taken around a 9% dip. So potentially it's around $90 at the moment. But as you can see, still sitting over that. Not only is it at a higher price, but it's in more demand. So they may sell more barrels at a higher price. Therefore, massive amounts of funding being floated back into Russia. So why have we seen the recent dip in this? Well, the US has lifted multiple sanctions to increase supply. Economics goes just down to supply demand. The demand has increased. The supply has been severely limited. So lifting sanctions on this oil to flow crude and refined. We've seen a lot of states, of course, filling markets with their strategic reserves. Also, I know in South Australia, where I live, we already have, especially in the more country parts, in the rural parts, we have rationing already of diesel to now emergency vehicles only. But not only this of putting more on the market, but the White House is driving a campaign that this strait will be open as soon as possible. We will see a sharp drop in oil. And they were pushing for a while that a ship had actually passed, being taken through by Navy vessels. But it seems that they are walking back on this. It was deleted. It seems that that was false. So trying to keep that price down, because at the end of the day, yes, you and I look at the specifics of war, but most people they care and where drives their vote is when they go and buy groceries at the supermarket or when they go to the bowser to fill up their car. And of course, if fuel is expensive, the truck that takes it to your supermarket, of course, has to increase and you end up paying for this. Of course, nothing is free. Of course, there's all flow on it and well, shit goes downstream. So let's have a look at the data. We could analyze oil all day, but there's a lot to go over in this. So we need to look at the data sets. We need to look at what it means. We need to look at vehicle losses. We also need to look at some blatant propaganda disinformation that Zelensky is pushing through his intelligence services as well. The law of averages just does not work with. But I was told from a friend, before we look at the maps, about 10 days ago, he rang me. We had a good chat, actually, actually a really good chat about the whole situation. But speaking about the southern region, of course, we saw those Ukrainian counteroffensive near mid end February, he said to me, the Starlink effect is wearing off. Now, what was this? Well, we saw that Starlink, you had to have registered terminals. And of course, the Russian terminals wouldn't be allowed to be registered. So a lot of comms, a lot of drones got then turned off. We have seen, of course, replacement systems come in for this, either other encrypted networks, even balloons, fiber optics, etc. And we did know that would only last for a period of time. And he said it is wearing off from his experience right there. So let's just have a quick look at the maps. And then we'll talk about this specific data. Now, what I'm going to do, and I hope you don't mind me doing this, it might be the cheap way to do it, but on deep state, we're just going to go back 10 days, forward 10 days from March the 1st to March the 10th, see where things are shifting. And I think it is important occasionally, we do actually zoom out, just not look day to day and see overall movements. Now, a lot of people ask me, well, Willie, why don't you use Ukraine views, of course, the website that just put together all of the mappers from AMK to this to the Russian ones to everything. And you could go forward and back in days. And I actually do not know what has happened to the gentleman who built that website. I actually am very worried. Him and I, we spoke every day about bits and pieces around the war for years and years. He lived in Europe. We spoke about all of this for years, I'd say was a good friend of mine. And last messages were just, okay, mate, I'll speak to you in the morning. And this is a couple of months back, I haven't heard anything. So I don't know, I hope the website comes back on, I hope that he's okay. But again, that I hope that answers the question. But it was a fantastic, fantastic website to use. So let's go back in the Sumy Oblast. So up in the north, of course, is Ukraine, the same screen, the capital of Kiev, red areas occupied 22, purple since 2014. And we're looking for movements in grey and red zone, forward or backward. So from the 1st of March, so we're stepping forward until where we are sitting today, you will see that in Sumy Oblast, there is a fair amount of ground being made in the direction of Krasnopilya. We do see that operations up around Sumy do continue. So we come down into the northeast. Now there's no changes being shown over the past 10 days in this area, but there's a lot of reports that there is continual movement around Kupyansk and Vovchansk actual. Then we'll come down to what I'll call the Siversk front, but really becoming the Sloviansk Kramatorsk. Just slight movements, but more extension of grey zone in Russia's favour, moving in this direction. Of course, the big update over the past month has been Siversk. A lot brushed over that, but that was a very big update. Kostantin Ivsky are all the way down to Pokrovsk. We're looking at a lot more sort of grey zone shifting in here. Yes, there's a little bit of red moving, but a lot of just grey zone extension, bit of red. We see Pokrovsk in the direction of Hrushov as well. Then we'll move down to the Velika southern area. And now it is in March that Deep State is really updating some of the map in here. So you can see back on the 1st, you can see that the grey moving in the direction of Ukraine's favour, but we won't talk about Hulia Pola for a second, but we can see that it's only grey zone being moved. So a reduction in red, grey zone moving and that grey zone, which was once contested, but now basically an infiltration area, has stayed the same on the extremes, but has deepened, which does actually make sense in this area. It's more coming to the limits that AMK was showing, but you'll see that therefore the data can't show because it never showed the advancements of Russia around Vedranye Ostapivsk and areas coming under control. Coming down to the Hulia Pola front, you can see that Russia has expanded control to the south of here, continue moving in this Zelachnaya area and then nothing further south around the Zaporizhzhia front. Remember, we're coming out of the real deep winter weeks and months. So let's look at the data on February. Have a look at what this tells us. So a little bit of a zoom in on this. Remember, this is net data. This is not just the advances Russia made, just the advances Ukraine made. So for instance, if Russia made 300 kilometre squares, Ukraine made 200 kilometre squares, the net would be minus 100. Okay. Both sides did make a lot of ground. So this is in 2026. You can see 25's figures greatly in Russia's favour up to between four and a half to 6,000 kilometre squares. Look here, we can see February, we see AMK in Ukraine's favour of 142 kilometre squares. In Suryak, Russia net only one kilometre square and deep state, because deep state didn't show the limits that Russia made in the south, they could never show the Ukrainian advancement. So they're showing more than both, which typically they are far less than both in Russia's favour over the month of February. Now, this is where we need to go a little bit deeper into the data and look at momentum movement. Now, what I will show you is just in case anyone has a use for this, is this is the full from 2022 to March the 11th here in Australia, the complete movements so far month to month net data. But this is where net, I think net is the best way, but it's not perfect. We have a look at this compiled by Hayhay, it's Hayden of the Suryaks figures. And this is what we get. So total Russian advanced gross, so the total of what they made was around 348, for Ukraine was about 290. But you might say, well, Willie, how did you end up on Suryak at 0.97? This is where these figures become very difficult with grey zone movements. It's never perfect. And as I say, these data is not perfect, but it's the best that we have got. So you can see the advancements here. So this is where it is still important to go. Russia still had a gross advancement of 348, Ukraine had a 290. So in the previous month where we didn't see Ukrainian offensives, we still see that Russia does have a lot of momentum in other areas. The net is getting canceled out by Ukrainian offensive, successful offensives down in the south, but there's still a lot of movement. What we did say is if Russia can have around 400 kilometre squares in February, we said this in the beginning of January, it tells us a lot about the momentum on the battlefield from previous years. So of course, in previous years where we didn't see a Ukrainian offensive at the same time skewing the net, we can see that its gross would be larger than the years previously. Now let's go deeper and see what Mr. Hey Hey Hayden says about this. The main reason for the discrepancy between the gross numbers in the picture and the net figure is grey zone. Suryak added significant amounts of grey zone, not just in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro where Ukraine had their counter offensive, but also on other fronts. That is the reason why Suryak's numbers are different from AMK. Pretty much boils down to Suryak showing more grey zone in the counter offensive than AMK, but both show Russia with much less territory. So reduction in territory, but Suryak being more generous on grey zone than Mr. AMK is. Both Suryak and AMK exceptionally busy at the moment, as per basically everyone talking about Iran. It all comes down, when we boil all this down, comes down to the long-standing argument of the war about whether it's worth it for Ukraine to expend so much manpower and equipment to retake territory, or if they would have been better off conserving it for defensive operations, elastic defence falling rearwards, which I've said in attritional war, you can win a war without ever winning a position if you were tricked down over time. Just in terms of attrition, it obviously isn't worth it, as it resulted in significant losses for one-off boost territory numbers. But as we all know, the war isn't about attrition, as the media, morale, PR and international support also factor in. This is the big factor for Ukraine, where their centre of gravity, their Shverpont sits outside of Kiev, because they need to maintain positive international support, especially now that everyone's eyes are on the Middle East. They do need to maintain then media victories, PR, morale, etc.

But does this, like Kursk did, like the 23 Offensive does, come back to bite you in the arse as the worst move possible? Potentially so. And this is where these net figures will potentially tell us more in the coming months. My main comment for the territorial statistics is that whilst Ukraine has significant win in their counter-offensive, the Russian pace of advance on all other fronts was virtually unchanged. Sumy had the Russian border crossings, which don't look to be stopped in time soon. Russia is gradually gaining ground around Vovchansk and Kupyansk, whilst in Donetsk, the pressure is mounting on Le Mans and Konstantinovskaya. The Seversk front was the most successful one for Russia for February, and I'd predict they will likely maintain the current pace until they hit the canal of Mykolaivka, further pushing west on the Seversk region. So it was certainly successful for Ukraine to launch a counter-offensive against weak Russian positions and nullify their advances for February, showing a zero net gain. But it also required the majority of their assault forces to do so and came at quite a high cost, whilst the Russians were seemingly unaffected on other fronts. So boils down to, although this in here, a large amount of territory where Russia did fail to bring forces together and exploit, did it stop advancements through the Donetsk region, through Seversk, all the way up through to Sumy? No it didn't. And will there be a time to pay the piper? This is where this is actually a better chart to look at when we look at a tritional war. What would be better than this would be accurate manpower figures. Of course we just don't have the accuracy to look at that because that's so much skew to with the ability to mobilize conscript recruit. Let's have a look at this. Now firstly, we need to, in my opinion, some may disagree with this, I think we need to remove these armoured cars MRAPs. Ukraine field a lot more of these, a lot more are donated, these are more easily replaceable. Russia tends to use more light vehicles such as motorcycles, buggies, etc. So this can overall skew the data. But let's look at the real assets like tanks, IFVs, APCs, self-propelled gun, multiple launch rocket system, engineering. Now let's have a look in January, February. So when we have a look at these numbers, you can see well this tells a vastly different story. Now of course if we deduct 80 from this, you can still see that it is almost three times higher for Ukraine losses in January. We come to February if we deduct 77 from this figure. So that brings us to 96. You can see that this is still almost three times higher. But let's jump more into this data because are tanks playing a crucial role? No. IFVs? No. APCs? No. What are playing a really crucial role in my opinion right now? Self-propelled guns, multiple launch rocket systems. Also remembering with this, not only does Russia field significantly more of them, they have an industrial capacity to make significantly more of them. But let's look at this. In January Russia lost three, Ukraine lost 29. In February Russia lost four, Ukraine lost 33. That is a huge difference in the amount of self-propelled guns being lost. That not only tells us about the targeting of them, it tells us about the ISR to spot them with drones in the air too. Now I know people of some statuses love drone footage of striking this or that. Artillery is still the king of the battlefield. Tells a lot more about casualties when we look at this. Let's look at Hey Hey It's Hayden. Now remember linked video down below, we go for a full dive into that. Interestingly a lot of vehicles used in Ukraine's counter-offensive aren't on these lists as they were hit by the Russians but the lack of aftermath footage there's a lack of the footage. So we've got loads of drone footage showing the mechanised columns in the south and vehicles being hit but a lot weren't confirmed as destroyed. Now where does this data in these charts come from? Okay so the lost armour is the Ukrainian losses and Ukraine War Spotting are the Russian losses. On a related note Ukraine is on track to lose more self-propelled guns by the end of April. Ukraine had 874 self-propelled guns destroyed or captured since the beginning of the war. Russia has had 921. Given Russian SPG losses are sitting between 0 and 5 for the past six months whilst Ukraine is losing 27 plus the gap is closing incredibly fast. When I made it in this video, if I forget, please add the last year's SPG losses here. Thank you good sir Willie. If you do it purely by destroyed they've already passed them at the beginning of February but obviously Russia had a lot more SPGs captured during the withdrawal in March 22 and the Kharkiv offensive of late 2022. As I said last time it is a terrifying statistic given Russia filled multiple times the number of systems Russia vastly exceeds their losses with new production so replacing old SPGs with newer models whilst Ukraine is burning through their stockpile and the donated ones fast. How often do we hear about SPGs like a Caesar or a Paladin being donated? Not often. I'll tell you at the moment a lot of countries will be stockpiling the massively reduced quantities of 155 artillery. Though we absolutely stockpile that we basically ran out of that worldwide which is incredibly embarrassing. Where did the trillions of dollars that fund NATO go? I don't know but there will be limits on that. So Ukraine won't ever truly run out due to their assembly of the Bordanas but they can get brought down to the point where some areas get little to no artillery support as we've gone over previously. I'll show you some charts around this. So that is some of the best I think the best data that we have. Again nothing is perfect and the way you present data can matter more than the data of which you actually collect. So I hope to present that in a fair truthful manner and show you as much so you can make your own outcomes of this. Apologies I said about MLRS. So we see that Russia loses significantly more MLRS. That said Ukraine operate far less systems of multiple launch rocket systems but they operate higher tech ones so like a high mass could not be compared to say a Grad. Okay let's have a look at this data from the President Mr Zelensky and what I will say first some just lessons to walk through life with. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and that is, which is asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. We can still apply rational logic. Our intelligence has obtained important docuмents regarding Russia's own assessment of its losses on the battlefield or did you make it up? In particular a change has been recorded to the kill to wounded ratio among Russian forces out of 100 percent of losses 62 percent so let's go two-thirds are killed and 38 percent wounded. There's going to be some level of missing in this but in their classified official reports the Russians themselves estimate that recoverable losses to be at 1.315 thousand killed so 1.315 million and seriously wounded. So everyone we have reason to believe these figures are understated. Shockingly it actually aligns more closely with a lot of the Ukrainian figures but let's have a look at this let's let's just take these numbers for a second. So 62 percent killed of the 1.3 million talking 837 thousand. Now this just doesn't apply with war logic, rational doctrine. If you flip a coin 10 times you may get 10 heads you may get 10 tails you might get 8 heads 2 tails but if you flip it 10 000 times the more and more you do this the closer and closer and closer you're going to get to a 50 50 ratio law of averages it becomes more convincing the more figures you start putting in. Now a very basic but rough rule of thumb when you account for total casualties wounded mii ki is really that you'll have then three to one so you will have for every three wounded you'll have then one ki. It's very rough it can go up it can go down it can depend where it is but that is more of a rule of thumb a thumb that we have seen and I've seen nothing that would suggest a complete inversion of this figure not even drones not a complete inversion of that. Now speaking of casualties history legends he has a great video working with imperfect data now he says himself it's not perfect data we know it's not perfect data from ukraine losses and media zone but it is the best figures that we have and all this shows the casualty rate is more similar between ukraine russia of one to one and the numbers are significantly smaller than the claimed figures here. I see this as informational warfare but I think one of the secrets of informational warfare is you have to make it somewhat believable and that would actually pass the sniff test of anyone who isn't just absorbed in the emotional aspect of information. What I will say though is maybe a shitload of people are sitting within this. So let's speak about Zelensky. Hungary. Zelensky, he openly openly threatened the life of a democratically elected EU NATO leader of prime minister Orban of Hungary.

People, are you said it sarcastically world leaders like this when they say something like this especially if your government if your intelligence services have carried out political assassinations which ukraine has done it carries a lot of weight and I have not seen that he has retracted or apologized for these comments. Again this is against a democratically elected EU and NATO leader saying that we should give this person's address clearly referring to Orban to our armed forces. What we have seen and this is where the these blocs just have no credibility is we've seen silence from the EU from the leaders of the EU to the democratically elected EU leaders to the authoritarian EU leaders of Carles and von der Leyen. We've seen none of that. Now we have seen Robert Fietsow the Slovakian prime minister said Zelensky had crossed all red lines and the country and the country is completely financed by the EU and it is this is right. Ukraine is completely financed by the EU it's completely defended by their NATO weapons and money flowing in and there's a threat against one of the leaders to this scale. Even the Hungarian opposition who Orban's party is saying are working with the Ukrainians and working with the EU to have a change of government in Hungary. Even they have condemned the statements by a non-bloc state to kill an elected official. I've said that this is a really bad thing for Zelensky to do. Regardless of if you love or hate him it's a stupid thing to have said should have been retracted should have been apologized for. Regardless what you think because do you really think that these guys are going to really start pushing through for your wanting of unfrozen assets more weapons all of this really? Do you think that Orban and Fietsow are closer to the current administration in Washington than a lot of other countries? Stupid stupid stupid even if it's sarcastic I don't care if you have carried out political assassinations and then you've said this it needed to be walked back and Ukrainians shouldn't be celebrating this nor should their supporters because at the end of the day for a smart ass comment like this it could mean that their 90 billion dollars doesn't go to their defense forces. Get away from just oh fucking hurrah waving flag action to what actually impacts the battlefield the most. What we have seen is then Hungary has then with their intelligence services intercepted a Ukrainian cash in transit vehicles. Now Andrew Sivir, the Ukrainian minister for foreign affairs said today third day since Hungary authorities robbed two Ukrainian armored banking vehicles says it would belong to the Oshar Bank and thus Ukraine Ukrainian taxpayers. Then the Hungarian minister says we're still waiting for an answer why would 900 million dollars and 420 million euros of cash moved through Hungary? What was it used for and whose benefit or interest? How much it was spent in Hungary and for whose benefit? We've seen him talk a lot about could it be down here we have this post from March 6th could it be Ukrainian war mafia serious questions about this why is so much of this coming through why is it not a wire transfer? Of course you're not flying gold and cash it was a lot of gold too you're not flying this into Ukraine at the moment so it will be cash in transit again we don't really know exactly the details of this it's still a little bit blurry but they're saying since January 900 million dollars 420 million in cash in euros and 146 kilograms of gold have been transported across Hungary if this is truly a transaction between banks why is it not carried out by transit? Why are so much enormous sums moving through our country? It was escorted by Ukrainian intelligence service general a former one until Kyiv provides clear explanations of the origin and purpose of the funds Hungarian authorities will conduct a thorough investigation. Now what does this look like? It's difficult to know is there a lot of dirty money floating around? Yeah of course we had of course that huge corruption scandal in Ukraine of which you have people like Timur Mindic close friends Zelensky business partners and their lawmakers then of course they fled to Israel but we have this what do I think this is? I actually think this is a little bit of in response to Zelensky's comments in response to Ukraine attempting to hold Slovakia and Hungary hostage with the closure of the Rusba pipeline flowing from Russia through Ukraine into the states still under that friendship pipeline agreement that it can flow but Ukraine refusing to have it flow across of course with the increased prices due to transactions in the Middle East we can see that there's going to get more and more tense wanting flows into Europe. We have today people like Ursula von der Leyen speaking about wanting to open small module nuclear reactors and this is great except when you go back to look who voted on demolishing the nuclear reactors and you'll conveniently see her name pop up. So I hope that is a good summary of what we have missed. Legends you have a fantastic day you look after yourselves and I'll speak to you tomorrow. Thank you. Bye-bye.

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AI SUMMARY AND OUTLINE
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SUMMARY 
The video transcript discusses the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Iran, emphasizing the global impact of the latter. The speaker highlights that the Ukraine conflict has taken a backseat due to the larger-scale Iran war, which involves major powers and has significant global consequences. However, an update on Ukraine is provided, focusing on data from January and February 2025, including territorial shifts, vehicle losses, and the role of oil prices in funding Russia’s war effort. The speaker notes that Russia’s oil exports remain high despite U.S. sanctions, which have limited supply but increased demand, keeping prices elevated. This affects global fuel costs, impacting economies and consumers. The Druzhba pipeline’s role in energy supply is discussed, with tensions over its closure and the economic implications for Europe. 

The speaker analyzes Ukraine’s military operations, noting that while counteroffensives in the south (e.g., near Kupyansk and Vovchansk) have stalled Russian advances, Russia continues to gain ground in other regions like Sumy and Donetsk. Vehicle losses are highlighted, with Ukraine suffering disproportionate losses of self-propelled guns (SPGs) and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), though Russia’s industrial capacity allows it to replace losses faster. The speaker critiques the use of data sources like AMK and Suryak, noting discrepancies due to grey zone movements and propaganda. 

Political tensions are addressed, including Hungary’s and Slovakia’s responses to Zelensky’s alleged threats against EU leaders like Viktor Orbán. Hungary’s interception of Ukrainian cash in transit vehicles and questions about its purpose are raised, linking it to broader concerns about corruption and mismanagement of aid. The speaker also mentions Ukraine’s reliance on Western support, including NATO funding and weapons, and warns that Zelensky’s controversial remarks could jeopardize this aid. The video concludes with a call to focus on battlefield realities over media narratives and a reminder of the human cost of war. 

OUTLINE 
- **Global Conflicts**: The Iran war is highlighted as a larger, more consequential conflict involving major powers, overshadowing the Ukraine war. 
- **Ukraine War Update**: Analysis of territorial shifts, vehicle losses, and military strategies from January to February 2025, with a focus on counteroffensives in the south. 
- **Oil and Economic Impact**: Russia’s reliance on oil exports, the effect of U.S. sanctions on supply, and how elevated prices strain global economies and fuel costs. 
- **Territorial Changes**: Detailed discussion of Russian gains in Sumy, Donetsk, and Sloviansk, alongside Ukraine’s partial successes in the south. 
- **Military Equipment Losses**: Disproportionate Ukrainian losses of SPGs and MLRS, Russia’s industrial capacity to replace losses, and the role of drones in targeting these systems. 
- **Data Sources and Discrepancies**: Critique of AMK and Suryak data, noting grey zone movements and propaganda distortions in reporting territorial gains. 
- **Political Tensions**: Zelensky’s alleged threats against Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s and Slovakia’s responses, and the EU’s silence on the issue. 
- **Druzhba Pipeline**: Role in energy supply, tensions over its closure, and the economic impact of Middle East conflicts on oil prices. 
- **Corruption and Aid Misuse**: Allegations of Ukrainian corruption, the Hungarian investigation into intercepted cash, and questions about the purpose of large cash transfers through Hungary. 
- **Casualty and Loss Statistics**: Discussion of Russian and Ukrainian casualty ratios, the law of averages, and the underreporting of casualties by both sides. 
- **International Support**: Ukraine’s reliance on Western aid and the potential consequences of Zelensky’s controversial remarks on funding and political alliances. 
- **Conclusion**: Emphasis on battlefield realities over media narratives, the human cost of war, and the need for transparency in data and political decisions.

Title: Iran Already Lost [Now Comes The Collapse]
YouTube URL:

Iran has already lost this war and its actions over the past 48 hours prove that beyond a shadow of a doubt. Now one of the most famous sayings in the world of boxing actually belongs to Mike Tyson, one of the greatest boxers of all time. He used to say, "Everybody got a plan until they get punched in the face," and the same thing happened with Iran. Iran came to this conflict fully prepped. They've spent decades prepping for this war. They've built a network of proxies. They've built a lot of military technology, which was based on Russian and Chinese weaponry. The problem is that once this Russian and Chinese technology came face to face with modern, up-to-date, cutting-edge US war technology. It was no match. This was like taking a candy from a kid. And as much as I hate this analogy, it was no match. So what happens by day two of this war? Iran has lost its entire air defense system. It's now a boardwalk across the Iranian sky. There's no more Navy. There's no more Air Force. And the entire command and control system of Iran is absolutely obliterated. Iran is now functioning as some sort of a decentralized, random command centers, where everybody that has a little bit of authority, they get to call the shots because there's no more central command. Everything is chaos. Everything is just designed to make it seem as if Iran is still kind of holding on. But obviously that's bullshit, and I'll show you why. So check this out. Now in the original plan of Iran, this is the idea that was set out and this was the plan that was supposed to be executed. The idea was we're gonna cause strategic damage to the United States and to Israel, by extension. And the way to do that is to hit the US bases across the gulf and to hit important strategic assets of the Israelis, like civilian infrastructure, power plants, desalination plants, all sorts of drilling facilities, refineries, and basically maybe sinking carriers to maybe bring down some air fighters, jet fighters, essentially create some sort of a strategic damage. It's gonna slow down the US and the Israelis in case of war. And of course, use the proxies. They've got Hamas and the Houthis and the different militia they've got in Iraq and other places, and obviously Hamas and Gaza. This was the idea. Now as Iran went into this conflict, it already has lost Hamas. It already has kind of degraded its ball to the point where its ball is nothing but a shell of its former self. So now the Houthis basically have been decapitated by the Israelis months ago. They're no longer relevant at all. And now Iran is basically all alone in this.

Russia is up to its neck in the Ukraine war. So they can't help. And China is not gonna go face-to-face against the US, definitely not to help Iran. So Iran is on its own. And on its own, what they've been able to achieve or the past few days since this war has started is literally nothing. Nothing of value. Nothing of strategic value. They've managed to do zero strategic damage to US assets both in the region and globally. The whole idea was Iran has a lot of sleeper cells in the US, in Europe, all across the world. Was supposed to cause strategic damage to the United States. All the carriers are intact. No fighter jets have been blown out of the sky. Just two or three of them actually were dropped by Kuwaiti friendly fire. So nothing of value on the Israeli side. Yes, they built a residential building. They've killed 10, 20, 30 people. But the idea is they haven't hit a major strategic infrastructure. No power plant nor refineries. Nothing that would disrupt the Israeli economy. Nothing that would disrupt the US war effort. So that is why Iran, by definition, had to default to plan B. And plan B is a lot less strategic and a lot more hopeful. This is what I call the Hail Mary of all plans. Now plan B is, hey, we can't win this war. It's asymmetric. We're being bombarded into Timbuktu. We have to do something about it. Okay, how do we do something about it? Okay, let's put economic pressure on our Gulf neighbors. Okay, how do we do that? Well, we're gonna bomb their airports, their hotels, and essentially spook the tourists out of there, and stop or at least disrupt the oil production in these countries because these countries rely on two things: oil production and tourism. Let's hit them hard. So they have to go to the United States and say, hey, Mr. Trump, can you stop this war because Iran is beating us up because Iran essentially saying if we hurt them enough, they're gonna pressure the United States to stop it. The other thing is let's target the US eyes in the region. Let's take out all their radars and everything so that the United States is essentially blind. Number three is let's empty the Israeli interceptor inventory. Let's just fire as much as we can just randomly and let's empty their interceptor so by week three and four, they can't shoot our missiles down and let's just create a global oil pressure by shutting down the Hormuz and essentially causing the shadow Hormuz to become basically absolutely non-relevant, taking away 20% of the global supply chain of oil. And that is what I call a quasi terrorist regional plan. Let's become a guerrilla organization. Let's become terrorists in the region and let's just stir shit up. It doesn't matter. We're gonna bomb our friends in Qatar. Qatar has been the biggest ally of Iran. We're gonna bomb the Saudis. We're gonna bump everybody. We're gonna bomb Cyprus, we're gonna bump Turkey. Everybody. Now they're not trying in this plan to think about the day after what happens. The day after this is over, unless you're saying to yourself. Hey, this is my last chance to get out of this alive. I don't care if I have any friends left. I don't care if I have any alliances left. This is my last ditch effort to somehow stay alive. You don't pull this plan unless you know you're on the brink of being finished. The fact that Iran is doing this plan and not the previous plan is because it's on the verge of getting annihilated. Now when I say Iran, of course, I mean the Islamic Republic and the regime. I don't talk about Iran, the country itself. Actually, it's a wonderful place and has some wonderful people. Now the plan that they're running right now has four elements as I showed before and I go through them one by one. And I'll show you the first element is create economic pressure on the Gulf countries. Now right now this has been done by shooting missiles at Saudi, at the UAE. The thing is that these countries currently present and 90% success rate and shooting down these missiles. They're not causing a lot of damage. Also, these countries have endless pits of money. What they're gonna do is they're gonna put on a huge PR campaign to encourage tourism and to make people forget about this. So to create a PR pressure against the UAE is gonna be virtually possible. Also, it brings the UAE, the Saudis and the Qataris way closer to the US-Israeli alliance than they were if before we had a little bit of a Saudi Iranian relationship. It's gone. Everybody's moving on to the US and the Israeli side because Iran has crossed the Rubicon. You cannot take it back once you actually cross this line and you shot at your neighbors. The fear of you doing it is gone now. They know Iran is serious about it. So now they need a defense alliance with the United States with the Israeli backing. So essentially it isolates Iran even more in the region. Also, the Israelis are gonna sell so much air defense systems to the UAE to the Saudi to the Qataris.

The entire Gulf is going to be buying Israeli air defense systems into the 2030s and beyond, making the Israelis tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars. And now Qatar is essentially banishing Hamas from its territories for the first time. And God knows how long why? Why is Lebanon now saying hey, we're willing to kick out his Bala, kick them out of Lebanon if you stop the war against us. Essentially the whole idea here is that everybody's aligning themselves against the pariah against Iran. Going with this plan has brought a lot of people in one circle against Iran. And it's not a sustainable thing that you can build a long-term country on. Now even if you talk about the fact that Iran has hit a few radars in the Gulf which they did. And even if you admit the fact that they've caused some damage, and I'm sure they did. It doesn't really matter because blinding the United States in the Gulf sounds very romantic if you are an Iranian regime leader like we're gonna blind the Americans. The thing is right, the United States and the Israelis have multi-layered air defense systems. Some of them are in space. Some of them are mobile. Some of them are long-range. Some of them are stationary. Some of them are airborne. Some of them are in the Gulf. Some of them are in Europe. Some of them are over the Israeli side. Hitting a few radars in the Gulf does not take this away, and that's why still everybody who is being shot at is shooting down the Iranian missiles at 90% interception even as they're supposedly are blind. Okay, so the damage that was caused to the US radar system in the Gulf if any was not strategic enough to cause any slowdown, so no impact here except some PR pressure to say hey, we're actually hitting the Americans. Now number three is the fact that a lot of these experts are telling you that there is an economy of interceptors versus missiles, right? So interceptors are a lot more expensive than these missiles and these drones and that is true 100%. But they're forgetting the flip side whether it's intentional or they just don't get it. I don't know the flip side of this that as the US, the Israelis and the UAE, the Saudis are running out of interceptors which they are number one. They're producing more. But let's put that to the side. The thing is while this is happening every single day the United States and Israel is a launcher removing so every single day these Iranian launcher essentially are getting obliterated now. It doesn't matter how many missiles you have if you don't have a platform to launch them from it's not going to be relevant. So every time Iran uses a launcher to shoot out a missile we can see that from space through a satellite because it takes a few minutes to fuel this rocket and it creates a huge heat signature and essentially we either shoot them out of the sky even before they reach any of their destinations or in most cases they actually hit the launcher while the missile is still on it. But whatever the case may be this is a single-page single use. Essentially all of these launchers are there for one shot. Once you get your shot off they're gone. And every single day more and more and more launchers are getting taken out of commission according to recent data about 70% of launchers have already been destroyed if you notice. Every single day we have less and less missiles flying from Iran to its neighbors into the Israelis as of recent data right now we're 85% less than the first day and every single day the number is declining. Currently single digits per day and the stockpiles that the Israelis and their neighbors have accuмulated prepping for this war is again something that people absolutely ignore. What do you think the Israelis and the UAE the Saudis were just sitting around waiting for this to happen? They've created massive stockpiles. They're producing more and the launches are getting destroyed. It's not Iran's game. It's definitely working as numbers go against Iran and of course number four let's talk about it the oil price pressure. Oh my god, the oil prices are 100. It's time to stop the war said nobody ever. I mean come on now. Look, it's a naive way of thinking right now. Iran is 90% dependent on actually selling oil. If Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz Iran has no money coming in. Iran is literally cutting off the branch. It's sitting on so it's not sustainable for Iran to really close the rumors because closing down the Strait of Hormuz kills Iran first and number two the United States is going to reopen the Hormuz have no doubt about it they have the capability the military has the full intention to do so and the strategic reserves in the meantime for a few days are going to keep the oil prices at normal as you've seen for the past day it's been hovering 180 then back to 9, then back to 80 then back to 100. But the strategic reserves and the reopening of the Hormuz and the current massive surplus of oil we've got globally we came into this with a massive surplus. It's not going to push prices long term into infinity. Sure we might see 140 per barrel within a few days short term but long term none of this is a sustainable pressure that can actually cause the United States to stop the war.

Now Iran really has no durability here there's no way out for them and I'll explain why number one Iran came into this with a huge problem massive drought economic crisis up the wazoo huge internal turmoil if you remember the protests were economic they had nothing to do with the Israelis of the of the u.s. A lot of new angry neighbors that they've accuмulated a lot of launchers they essentially lost which they can't threaten anymore. They're going to have to rebuild this with what money and the war is done once the u.s. Finishes these launchers the men of the United States and Israel is shoot out the last launcher Iran has which is not that far away probably days or maybe a week or two. Iran's war is finished because there's no Air Force. There's no Navy. There's no way to inflict any damage once these launches are gone. We have a couple of weeks at the best for Iran to keep shooting these missiles, and then they're finished. They know it so they're trying to pretend as if they're winning like the usual playbook of Iran. But it couldn't be further from the truth. Now right now while Iran is crumbling from the inside the Gulf countries are fine. The Israelis are fine the u.s. Is fine. Sure it's not a popular war in the u.s. But hey which war is and the Iranians are losing launchers and they're creating a very minimal old pressure. There's nothing left for Iranians. It is over the war is finished. I give it a couple weeks as far as the regime changing or not it does not matter. I've explained it in the previous video the actual formal toppling of this regime may happen in next few weeks may happen in a year or two it does not matter. The minute that you cripple this economy you cripple the Islamic regime. It can go in inertia for another few months. Maybe a year or two, but it's on the way down. It's on the way to a disruption and implosion. So whether Donald Trump gets a regime change or it takes another year for it to happen naturally after this whole process has started. We have passed the point of no return. Iran as an Islamic regime, Iran as a dictatorship is finished. There's a new age coming whether it happens in a few weeks or a few months a few years doesn't really matter. I'll see you next one piece.

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AI SUMMARY AND OUTLINE
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SUMMARY 
The transcript argues that Iran has already lost a recent conflict due to its inability to match the advanced military technology of the United States and Israel. The speaker compares Iran’s situation to a boxing analogy, referencing Mike Tyson’s quote about plans failing when confronted with reality. Iran’s initial strategy aimed to strike US and Israeli assets, such as military bases, infrastructure, and carriers, to cripple their war efforts. However, these attacks failed to achieve strategic damage, as Iran’s outdated Russian and Chinese tech was no match for US systems. By day two, Iran’s air defenses, navy, and command structure were destroyed, leaving a chaotic, decentralized military. 

Iran’s reliance on proxies like Hamas, Houthis, and Iraqi militias has also crumbled, with Hamas and Houthis neutralized by Israeli strikes. Russia and China, unable to support Iran, leave it isolated. The speaker dismisses Iran’s Plan B—a "Hail Mary" strategy—to disrupt Gulf economies, target US radar, and block oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this plan is deemed ineffective: Gulf states have robust defenses, oil prices remain stable due to global reserves, and Iran’s missile launches are being intercepted at high rates. 

The transcript highlights Iran’s internal crises, including economic collapse, drought, and political instability, which exacerbate its military defeat. The speaker argues that Iran’s war is over within weeks, as its launchers are being destroyed, and its economy will collapse, leading to regime change. The Gulf states, Israel, and the US are unharmed, while Iran’s attempts to create chaos through economic pressure or oil disruptions are futile. The conclusion is that Iran’s regime is doomed, with a new era of stability inevitable, regardless of the timeline. 

OUTLINE 
- **Iran’s Military Defeat**: Iran’s advanced tech is outmatched by US and Israeli systems, leading to the destruction of air defenses, navy, and command structures. 
- **Boxing Analogy**: The speaker compares Iran’s failed strategy to Mike Tyson’s quote, emphasizing how plans crumble under pressure. 
- **Initial Strategy Failure**: Iran’s attack on US/Israeli assets (bases, carriers, infrastructure) failed to inflict strategic damage. 
- **Proxy Collapse**: Hamas and Houthis are neutralized; Iran’s reliance on allies is diminished. 
- **Isolation**: Russia and China cannot support Iran, leaving it alone in the conflict. 
- **Plan B (Hail Mary Strategy)**: Iran’s attempt to disrupt Gulf economies, target US radar, and block oil shipments through Hormuz. 
- **Economic Pressure Ineffectiveness**: Gulf states have robust defenses and financial reserves; oil prices remain stable due to global reserves. 
- **Missile Launchers Destroyed**: Iran’s launchers are being neutralized daily, reducing missile strikes to single digits. 
- **Interceptors vs. Missiles**: The cost of interceptors vs. missiles is irrelevant as US/Israeli defenses are overwhelming. 
- **Oil Disruption Futility**: Closing Hormuz would harm Iran first; the US would reopen it, and global oil surpluses prevent price spikes. 
- **Iran’s Internal Crises**: Economic collapse, drought, and political instability accelerate its downfall. 
- **Regime Collapse**: The Islamic Republic’s survival depends on its economy; crippling it will lead to regime change. 
- **Gulf and US Resilience**: Allies remain unharmed, strengthening their ties to the US and Israel. 
- **Conclusion**: Iran’s war is over; a new era of stability is inevitable, regardless of the timeline.