Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai - 5:06 AM - 10 Feb 2018 (https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/962191002122498049)
Missiles launched over #Damascus; Rockets over the Golan Heights and a drone downed over #Israel: all in the last hour.
Israel said it is "an #Iranian drone". If that is the case, it is a "forced reconnaissance" to exhaust the Israeli defence system, #Hezbollah's style.
#Breakingnews:
#Israel F-16 downed by what seems to be #Syria air defence system
#BreakingNews: Private sourceShould Israel escalate to a bigger war it will be covered with hundreds of missiles per hour. Hizbullah has enough reserves to submit Israel to weeks of uninterrupted fire. Normal civil life will come to a stand still. Lebanon and Syria would also be under severe attacks but they are better positioned to endure such a situation.
All Syrian military and intelligence and their allies (#Hezbollah) positions in #Syria and #Lebanon on full alert
Source: #Israel recognition of downing an F-16 means Syria is on alert waiting for any Israeli violation, as is #Hezbolah and #Iran. Would Israel be dragged to war? How #Russia will react in #Syria? The front is very hot now.
#Israel changing version from "an #Iranian drone" to admit the downing of an F-16 was a first attempt to accuse #Tehran but later had to admit the reality showing a confusion in decision makers in the first hour.
#Syria is used to war as its leadership has been engaged in it fully for the last 6-7 years. Therefore #Damascus's Gov is ready for another front following the liberation of #ISIS last pocket in the north (except the one under #USA control).
Level of escalation in #Damascus response was a warning to #Israel that #TelAviv didn't take onboard. #Israel may limit itself bombing few Syrian positions from afar (flying over #Lebanon) or be dragged into escalation on a front from #Lebanon to #Syria
#Israel can't ignore the downing of its F-16, never happen in the last decades over #Syria and #Lebanon. Therefore what is important is the level of response: will the response bring a retaliation? If so, the long waited war may began.
This is a new Rule of Engagement and a new situation where #Israel is finding itself incapable of dominating the #Syria/n air space. It also shows #Damascus freedom (unlike many analysts believed) to respond regardless what #Russia's position is.
#Syria/n officials believe more than 1 F-16 were hit by its anti-Air missiles, showing the Syrian air-defence capability and the challenging attitude of #Damascus towards #Israel (not accepting the Israeli version of only 1 F-16 downed).
One conclusion: The Sky over #Syria is no longer an #Israeli/i promenade and the Syrian Army is now ready for another confrontation. This blows up all (ridiculous) assessment by analysts that "the Syrian Army stretched..., skinny..., few thousands only...)
#Israel admitted, indirectly, of the efficiency of the #Syrian Air-defence system by saying:" We study a retaliation". The question is and remain: How #Russia will behave? Allow #Israel to hit its Syrian ally and remain on the side? Or stop the escalation?
It is in the disadvantage of #Russia to see another war in #Syria on the southern front, with a #USA intervention, #Hezbollah #Iran the #Palestinians... all that may lead to a general war unless the Israeli response is limited.
#Hezbollah, on full alert in #Syria and #Lebanon, expected the reaction. Its leader Said Hasan Nasrallah warned to open a general war from Naqoura to the Golan Heights in the forthcoming war.
This escalation coincide with the approval of #Lebanon to start its oil exploration in Block 9.
Just a thought: If this is a #Russian tit-for-tat, we could say that it is #Russia response to the downing of the Russian jet over #Idlib. Russia accused the #USA of providing anti-air missiles to #AQ allies.
It is likely that #Damascus issues a communiqué to confirm its air defence fired the missiles against the F-16 hitting more than one jet to counter the #Israeli version claiming that #Iran is directly involved in this event.
It seems #Israel warning Sirens blare in Northern #Israel over the Golan, the Galilee and the northern of Israel, closing the airspace over the north of Israel.
7:35 AM - 10 Feb 2018 (https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/962228473858273280)
#BreakingNews: A second #Israel/i air bombing against #Syria. #Damascus open fire again against Israel Jets and Golan Heights positions. Siren over Israel continue. Escalation (for now).
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