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Russia Makes 1st Nuke Shipment to Iran

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20071217/D8TJ63NO0.html

Hi Mousey,

I'm all over this stuff and spend much more time then I should following this in minute details.

It's not that the NIE estimates (What you call US spies) didn't know about the shipment, but rather that the shipment we're finally made as a reaction to the NIE'S content and what it implies for U.S. - Iran relations.

I don't have time to lay it all out, but if you have questions, I can field them as I understand it.  

Hi,

I am grammatically challenged and write phonetically since English is my second language.  You understood or course the proper meaning.

I tend to write about such things while taking many reasoning steps for granted.  So I'll go slow with this response, don't read it that I condescend.  It will be good if anyone wish to interject along the process so that we can all be in agreement or at least, understand why and at what step one disagrees with me.

First thing to agree on is this.

If one argues that the shipment was made in reaction to the NIE content, it needs to be demonstrated that shipments where held prior to it's release. ie: Why would Russia not make it's delivery of fuel while contracted to do so.

Let me first establish that this pending shipment is something very public.  The Bushehr reactor has been under construction for decades and the pending shipment from Russia delayed for a few years... the latest excuse being that Iran had not made it's payment as required.  So, the suggestion that the Intelligence Community was not aware of this possibility is not reasonable.  This is public domain and very easy to look up.

Why would Russia be hesitant then...

1- Russia and Iran are not natural allies.  In fact, they are hegemonic competitors in the energy rich Caspian Sea area.  
2- Iran lacks transparency toward the IAEA on the full details of it's enrichment program. A fact that has annoyed the Russians
3- A fully working Bushehr reactor will produce enough plutonium for one crude plutonium device a week.  The only way to prevent this, is full disclosure and audit ability from the IAEA. This is linked to point number 2 of course.
4- Russia is in range of Iran's missile technology.  They don't need to see them thus armed with Nuclear warheads.

but more importantly.

5- Iran needed that fuel.  Now that it's delivered, Russia has lost a considerable lever on them.  Iran being of prime importance in the current geo-politics, that lever was of considerable importance.


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If we can agree on the above, we can look at how I see this tie in to the NIE content, and US-Iran relations.


Also, while I am not providing evidence for any of these claims, I can do so to the nth degree if asked to.

Actually, yes, I follow you, but why did they make the issue about it hurting the Bush administration?

I'll assume that by "they" you mean the talking heads and by "it" you meant the release of the NIE.

What it did, is effectively wipe out 3-4 years of rhetoric where Washington was making a case that Iran was likely seeking nuclear weapons.  That being said, it's unclear that this hurts the administration.

They are many theories as to why it was made public... the one I retain is not at all disadvantageous to the Bush Administration.

I believe that considerable gains have been made through back channel diplomacy with Iran. There has been some tangible signs of this in the past 2 months.  The release of the NIE effectively defuses the nuclear issue and allow for a face saving rapprochement of both countries.  So, I disagree with those saying this is a setback for the Bush administration.  Clearly a loss for the hawks like Cheney, Bolton, Addington etc... but on the whole, I believe it was strategically released.