Author Topic: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat (Read 565 times)

dxcat40 · « **on:** November 09, 2022, 03:43:02 PM »

Quote

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday ordered his troops to withdraw from the occupied Ukrainian city of Kherson and take up defensive lines on the opposite bank of the River Dnipro.

The announcement marked one of Russia's most significant retreats and a potential turning point in the war, now nearing the end of its ninth month.

In televised comments, General Sergei Surovikin, in overall command of the war, reported to Shoigu that it was no longer possible to keep Kherson city supplied.

"Having comprehensively assessed the current situation, it is proposed to take up defence along the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River," said Surovikin, standing at a lectern and indicating troop positions on a map whose details were greyed-out for the TV audience.

"I understand that this is a very difficult decision, but at the same time we will preserve the most important thing - the lives of our servicemen and, in general, the combat effectiveness of the group of troops, which it is futile to keep on the right bank in a limited area."

The news followed weeks of Ukrainian advances towards the city and a race by Russia to relocate more than 100,000 of its residents by ferrying them to the opposite side of the river.

Kherson is the main city of the region of the same name - one of four Ukrainian regions which President Vladimir Putin proclaimed in September he was incorporating into Russia "forever", and which the Kremlin said had now been placed under Moscow's nuclear umbrella.

Shoigu told Surovikin: "I agree with your conclusions and proposals. For us, the life and health of Russian servicemen is always a priority. We must also take into account the threats to the civilian population.

"Proceed with the withdrawal of troops and take all measures to ensure the safe transfer of personnel, weapons and equipment across the Dnipro River."

The announcement had been anticipated by Russia's influential war bloggers, who described it as a bitter blow.

"Apparently we will leave the city, no matter how painful it is to write about it now," said the War Gonzo blog, which has more than 1.3 million subscribers on Telegram.

"In simple terms, Kherson can't be held with bare hands," it said. "Yes, this is a black page in the history of the Russian army. Of the Russian state. A tragic page."

Compounding the sense of Russian disarray in Kherson, Moscow's number two official there, Kirill Stremousov, was killed in a car crash on Wednesday.

Stremousov was one of the most prominent faces of Russia's occupation. Ukraine viewed him as a collaborator and a traitor.

In a video statement only hours before his death, Stremousov denounced what he called Ukrainian "nαzιs" and said the Russian military was in "full control" of the situation in the south.

Source: Reuters (link)

My emphasis above. Interesting turn of events. Xi has made a public statement that tactical nuclear weapons shouldn't be used in Ukraine (link). Does Russia have a surprise to take back Kherson? Will the war enter Crimea?

WhiteWorkinClassScapegoat · « **Reply #1 on:** November 10, 2022, 07:38:13 AM »

Russia be kickin' Ukraine's aye-yazz.

Jaycie · « **Reply #2 on:** November 10, 2022, 02:04:36 PM »

www.mundabor.wordpress.com/2022/11/10/kherson-examined-or-what-would-general-mundabor-do/

I like what this blog has to say about the Russian retreat.

Matthew · « **Reply #3 on:** November 10, 2022, 02:43:42 PM »

Quote from: Jaycie on November 10, 2022, 02:04:36 PM

www.mundabor.wordpress.com/2022/11/10/kherson-examined-or-what-would-general-mundabor-do/

I like what this blog has to say about the Russian retreat.

Yesterday, something strange (and sad) happened: the Russians announced they would retire from Kherson city and all the territories west of the River (the “right bank”, as the river flows towards the south). Not what I wanted to read, for sure.
This is unpleasant for every supporter of Russia. However, instead of behaving like children (a fashionable behaviour in pro-Russian Telegram channels), we should look at the situation and see what prompted this decision. Military operations, special or not, are not fought on twitter, and they require a longer time horizon than the next two hours.
It was clear since the famous interview of General Surovikin (the new Military Supremo) that he *did not like one bit the situation he had inherited in Kherson*. This can be described, in two words, as a dangerous bridgehead with an immense river (the Dnepr) at the back, a risk of flooding of your soldiers if the nearby dam is broken, and a great difficulty in resupplying them with food and ammo. You need to imagine the Kherson region as being constrained by a big bottleneck, causing a great danger of having tens of thousands of soldiers either flooded or left without ammo. If the soldiers are cut off from resupply and retreat, you have a huge cauldron with 20k or more Russians soldiers stuck in. Hence, Surovikin statement, last month, that “difficult decisions might have to be made”.
Around one month has gone since that interview. I think that Surovikin has seen that the bottleneck cannot be eliminated (the river is still huge, and the Ukrainian are still good at shelling the pontoon bridges). Now that the civilian population has been (wisely) evacuated and he is free to make his own decision, the guy has simply decided that he would do what is better for his soldier and his army, not the PR machine and the Twitter warriors.
Could he have held Kherson? For sure. This is so obvious that you can see, since yesterday, that the Ukrainians still hesitate to advance, so scared they are that this is a trap. He could have held Kherson and he could have, when the attack comes, inflict big losses on the Ukrainian forces. Still, this would have come at at a price to pay in losses for his own soldiers, and at the risk of the Ukrainian managing to break the dam, or to starve his troops of ammo and other logistics. From the fact that Surovikin decided to choose the safety of his soldiers, you understand that this one is the exact opposite of Zelensky, sending his soldiers to die for the sake of two days’ headlines or more almsgiving from the West.
Basically, you can see it in this way: Surovikin is put in charge of the entire front. He looks at it and says to himself: “if I had had my way from day one, is this the front line I would have wanted? With this highly symbolic, but difficult to keep bridgehead, that could, one day, cause a huge loss for which I, not my predecessors who put me in this situation in the first place, would be blamed?”
We know for sure, since yesterday, what answer Surovikin gave to this question. I think he decided to do this one month ago, he simply needed the time to evacuate the civilian population and prepare the Russians for the “difficult decision” he had announced. He is also showing that this one is his own decision, not a retreat forced by an actual, ongoing Ukrainian attack.
Is this pleasant? No. Kherson undoubtedly has a very high PR value, and this one is undoubtedly a boost for the Ukrainian’s morale, which they will milk to the last drop. It will also force the West to keep bleeding weapons to the Ukraine. It will also mean giving away a convenient bridge head the other side of the Dnepr. But Surovikin is as prudent as Putin. He does not care for the moaning of Twitter generals. He will have the front line he wants whilst he keeps dismantling the Ukrainian infrastructure piece by piece, starving them of the energy they need to keep the war going.
This is not what we see in the movies. This is not the war made of heroic advances many would have. This is the business of war as conducted by a guy who wants to keep his own army intact as he slowly dismounts the one of his enemy. No big proclaims. No great offensives. He seems to be a followers of the first rule of Italian boxing: primo, non prenderle, or “first thing: avoid being hit”.
Many disagree with this. They know (and they are right) that the Russian potential to inflict pain to the Ukraine is so big, that they see no need to keep being so prudent, and gentle, and casualties shy. They know (and they are right) that if Russia wanted to go all in against the Ukraine, soon you would have a heap of smouldering ruins where the enemy used to be. Clearly, this is not wanted by either Putin of Surovikin, and it’s not really smart to destroy everything in front of you when you want to keep the territory as your own after the conflict. I have no doubt the Russians would scorch the earth in Finland. They just won’t do it – unless absolutely forced – in the Ukraine.
Surovikin has shown great intelligence and self-assuredness. He has also shown that he will conduct this operation according to sound military principles, not social media frenzies. He has, in fact, shown great ability in first telling you that he *might* do the unpleasant stuff, and then doing it when the conditions are right. Sad as I am that this decision has been made, I cannot but admire this guy’s ice-cold decision making.
Would General Mundabor have made the same decision? Who knows what he would have done, having the same information. Also, who knows whether General Mundabor, tired of this conflict being protracted by the constant deliveries of weapons from the West, would not have decided to stay in Kherson, and bomb to smithereens some Polish military base used as a distribution centre, or some German military base used as training centre, or to completely annihilate Portsmouth’s naval base in order to persuade the Brits to leave the adults alone and go play with the dolls.
You see: in that case, general Mundabor would have, very likely, forced a rapid end of the conflict without any need to leave Kherson. But he might also have – unlikely, but possible – caused a big escalation in the military confrontation; one that would see Russia emerge as the victor very fast – barring a nuclear escalation – but would have also caused great losses for the Russian army and devastations everywhere. Who knows.
The Russians do not mind tactical retreats. They let Napoleon arrive all the way to Moscow (Borodino is more than 100km away). Then they started to work on Napoleon’s grave there. Imagine if twitter, or Telegram, had existed at the time!
All in all, I would say that Surovikin is acting prudently and wisely.
I trust both him and Putin to do what is smart in the long term.

dxcat40 · « **Reply #4 on:** November 10, 2022, 03:01:06 PM »

Quote

Russian TV host Andrei Norkin's realisation that his country lacks freedom of speech:

If I back the decision to withdraw from Kherson, I'm going to jail for questioning Russia's territorial integrity

And if I oppose it, I'm going to jail for discrediting the armed forces

Twitter source (link)

Ladislaus · « **Reply #5 on:** November 10, 2022, 03:04:48 PM »

That one Colonel MacGregor had a very intelligent analysis of the situation.

While dropping back, Russia has crippled Ukraine's ability to bring numbers forward quickly (taking out supply chains, electric grid, and trains), so smaller numbers are advancing forward and getting wiped out. He also says it has to do with the terrain, that it's so flat and open that they're dropping back into a more defensible position and will be waiting it out.

Several interviewees have stated that it is a well-known Russian tactic (studied in their military schools) to drop back in order to draw the enemy in where they want them.

Problem is that the Western media is so hostile to Russia, that every time Russians leave a village, it's front-page news that there's some massive Ukrainian counter-offensive, so it's hard to know exactly what's going on. But MacGregor seems like he has reliable information from sources still in the US military.

dxcat40 · « **Reply #6 on:** November 10, 2022, 03:11:44 PM »

Quote from: dxcat40 on November 09, 2022, 03:43:02 PM

Will the war enter Crimea?

Supposed Sat image of Russians preparing trenches in the north Crimea in the Armiansk region:

Telegram source (link)

dxcat40 · « **Reply #7 on:** November 10, 2022, 03:25:00 PM »

Quote from: Jaycie on November 10, 2022, 02:04:36 PM

www.mundabor.wordpress.com/2022/11/10/kherson-examined-or-what-would-general-mundabor-do/

I like what this blog has to say about the Russian retreat.

Here is a source that better manages their bias:

Quote

Key Takeaways

* The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) ordered Russian forces on the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River to begin withdrawing to the east (left) bank on November 9.

* The battle of Kherson is not inherently over, but Russian forces have entered a new phase— prioritizing withdrawing their forces across the river in good order and delaying Ukrainian forces, rather than seeking to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive entirely.

* Many prominent voices in the Russian milblogger space sided with Surovikin and lauded the decision as a necessary one, indicating that Russian leadership has learned from the information effects of the disastrous Russian withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast in mid-September.

* Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev met with senior Iranian officials in Tehran on November 9, likely to discuss the sale of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia and other forms of cooperation

* Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting along the Svatove-Kremmina highway and Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast.

* Ukrainian forces made territorial gains northeast of Kherson City and continued their successful interdiction campaign.

* Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

* Russian federal subjects are struggling to pay mobilized personnel, and the Russian military is struggling to provision them.

* Relatives of mobilized personnel continue to protest lack of payment and poor conditions.

* Russian occupation deputy head of Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov was killed in a claimed car accident in rear Kherson Oblast the day Russian forces announced their withdrawal from the west bank of Kherson Oblast.

* Occupation authorities in rear areas are likely increasing law enforcement crackdowns and filtration measures amid fears of Ukrainian counteroffensives after the November 9 withdrawal announcement

Source: ISW (link)

Try reading through the whole thing.

Ladislaus · « **Reply #8 on:** November 10, 2022, 04:59:20 PM »

Quote from: dxcat40 on November 10, 2022, 03:25:00 PM

Here is a source that better manages their bias:

Riiiiight. YOU are the "un-biased" one.

StLouisIX · « **Reply #9 on:** November 10, 2022, 05:24:13 PM »

Quote from: Ladislaus on November 10, 2022, 03:04:48 PM

That one Colonel MacGregor had a very intelligent analysis of the situation.

While dropping back, Russia has crippled Ukraine's ability to bring numbers forward quickly (taking out supply chains, electric grid, and trains), so smaller numbers are advancing forward and getting wiped out. He also says it has to do with the terrain, that it's so flat and open that they're dropping back into a more defensible position and will be waiting it out.

Several interviewees have stated that it is a well-known Russian tactic (studied in their military schools) to drop back in order to draw the enemy in where they want them.

Problem is that the Western media is so hostile to Russia, that every time Russians leave a village, it's front-page news that there's some massive Ukrainian counter-offensive, so it's hard to know exactly what's going on. But MacGregor seems like he has reliable information from sources still in the US military.

Author Topic: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat (Read 565 times)

dxcat40

Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

WhiteWorkinClassScapegoat

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

Jaycie

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

Matthew

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

dxcat40

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

Ladislaus

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

dxcat40

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

dxcat40

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

Ladislaus

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat

StLouisIX

Re: Russia abandons Ukrainian city of Kherson in major retreat