by Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairs

17 October 2006: Over the course of the past week there have been enough reports and credible rumors circulating just below the surface to make the following assessment and forecast of near-term possibilities or probabilities:

1.) The now offically acknowledged nuclear test conducted by North Korea a week ago yesterday was actually a test of the first-stage of a two stage hydrogen bomb. The sub-kiloton blast is assessed to have been a complete success.

2.) The much-rumored upcoming test is expected or anticipated in US military cirlces to be a test of both stages of a hydrogen warhead. The consensus is that North Korea plans to test its hydrogen bomb as soon as possible, possibly sometime this week.

One military source has stated the possibility that a combined missile test and h-bomb test might occur, with the warhead detonating in the upper regions of the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. The same source also suggests that Red China has been very embarrassed by the first North Korean nuclear test. To mitigate or prevent further embarrassment the Red Chinese are rumored to be covertly seeking the assassination or overthrow of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il.

Additional details will be provided as they are developed.