Im wondering about how much an Iranian attack is reality and how much is posturing and threatening for the masses.  Could it all be bluff??  

Hi,

A bluff aimed at Iranians yes.  There is surely, within the policy makers in Iran two movements.

One that would cautiously agree to a settlement with the American's over Iraq and it's nuclear situation; Thus consolidating the great advances they have made of late in expanding Shia hegemony.  
There would be those others more cunning, who would prefer expand the violence in Iraq, till the Americans reach an intolerable tipping point at which they would withdraw their troops, leaving a huge power vacuum that Iran would quickly fill.

Events of late are aimed at both favouring the cautious option for Iranians and to strenghten the position of Americans in negociations.

Those events include...
- The surge... while militarely not very significant, it serves as a message that the President is not a lame duck yet, and still has enough power as to be unpredictable.
- Carefully crafted leaks to the press.  Including, Israel go at it alone possibility, Israel nuclear option, Israel-Syria back channel negociation leaks etc...
- Stepped up military pressure by the US, increasing it's naval presence and taking active actions against Iranians agent in Iraq.

All those paint a portrait designed at curtailing Iranian ambitions, and get them to settle for moderate gains in exchange of collaborations on Iraq.

On the Iranian side, President Ahminejad is allready seeing his powerbase erode as he is seen totally inadequate to bring about sucessfull negociations with his firebrand rhethoric and non-sensical "tell the whole world" weekly update on the progress of it's nuclear program.  That erosion serves has an indication in what direction Iran leadership is leaning.

On the US side, through proxies like Saudi Arabia and certain moderate Shia factions within Iraq allready have some kind of back channel diplomacy with Iran.  And yesterday, an Iran Foreign Ministry spokeman announced that it was studying a Letter from the United States calling for a bilateral solution to the problems that plague both countries.

I think that the reaction, or lack of reaction to Irans new satelite launcher/ICBM will be very illuminating, no pun intended.  To my thinking a strong response from world and American leaders shows the push for actual war, the sweeping the facts under the rug would show its all a bluff.  I will be watching this closely..

I'm not sure about that.

It would largely depend on it's outcome.  Firing a multi-stage rocket is very complicated.  If succesfull it would mean a giant leap forward not only for Iran, but also Pakistan and North Korea who both have been collaborating very closely with Iran on missile technology.  This is very hard to sweep under the carpet and the media would jump all over it.

It will be more interesting to gauge the reaction if the test fails. Then allowing more breathing room to the spin doctors.

NiteFlyer,

I'm curious about your opinion on Solar Warming?  The idea that its actually the sun (not us) causing the warming trend.(since other planets are warming up significantly also, including the barren world, Pluto)

Its gonna get rough.  Not that there is no merit to the idea that oil supply could be disrupted by war and create chaos and depopulation... What do you think will happen if an Iranian attack disrupts the Persian Gulf supplies.  Oil is not abiotic, this is simply a myth, the disinformation lies with our governments and corporate structures, notably the oil companies, they dont want you to know the truth.

Hi niteflyer & welcome,
I think that was the point I was trying to make...that it is possible that both sides of this issue is controlled.

http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2005/05/317075.shtml

Stalin & Abiotic Oil versus international corporate oil's PLANNED GLOBAL h0Ɩ0cαųst

PEAK OIL' THEORY BITES THE DUST: By 1951, what has been called the Modern Russian-Ukrainian Theory of Deep, Abiotic Petroleum Origins was born. A healthy amount of scientific debate followed for the next couple of decades, during which time the theory, initially formulated by geologists, based on observational data, was validated through the rigorous
quantitative work of chemists, physicists and thermodynamicists. For the last couple of decades, the theory has been accepted as established fact by virtually the entire scientific community of the (former) Soviet Union.
It is backed up by literally thousands of published studies in
prestigious, peer-reviewed scientific journals.

Only the world is being led like sheep to believe that the oncoming
PLANNED HUMAN h0Ɩ0cαųst is going to be strictly accidental instead of WHAT IS REALLY IS: THE LARGEST INTERNATIONAL CORPORATE-nαzι OPERATION EVER SEEN
ON THE PLANET, INTENTIONALLY MURDERING BILLIONS OF PEOPLE UNDER THE RUBRIC OF A CONVENIENT LIE. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic
petroleum origins is not controversial nor presently a matter of academic debate--UNLESS YOU ARE REALLY LOOKING FOR A FLIMSY ALIBI CALLED 'PEAK BIOLOGICAL OIL' TO FRAME A COVER OPERATION TO KILL BILLIONS OF PEOPLE AND
TO JUSTIFY HIGH PRIVATE MONOPOLY OIL PRICES OFF FALSE IDEAS OF SCARCITY.
[and a comment quote]

There is no science that has ever been accepted to claim Peak Oil physically exists. Sure, there are lots of mathematical abstract models and corporate released data. However on the issue of the origin and physical creation of oil it is clear from the above (and elsewhere) that the biotic theory is bunk.

None of the biotic oil theory data has anything to do with the physical creation of oil, it's all referred to issues of docuмenting supposed "drop in production" when production is a social thing. Besides, as several articles above show, some oil areas keep renewing themselves. See that
Cornell geologist above, hmm?

None of the corporate spiel can be considered a form of science, since the data itself is hardly public domain and since they refuse to address the issue of oil's physical creation and origin instead of simply providing misconstruded data on its "drop in production."

Biotic oil theory is all based on trusting people like Halliburton.

Trusting people like Chevron.
Trusting people like Exxon.
Trusting people like the Rockefellers.

What you have are very powerful corporations and a consolidated media creating an advertising belief for legitimating (1) why petroleum prices are so high that takes the public's mind off their corporate greed, and
(2) why they are planning to escape the blame when they consolidate the world's oil ownership and then pull their own plug on you. Peak Oil is only a human creation, a human phenomena designed to maintain power thorugh maintaining scarcity.
However, I'm hardly saying that I want oil. I'm just saying that look to politics of intentional scarcity and market manipulation for why we have the energy hegemonies we have.

Anti, this article is a joke.  There was an abiotic oil debate, and it closed without a single molecule of abiotic oil being found.  It exists as an interesting theory, but no one with serious scientific credentials back it more than just that, a possibility, akin to bigfoot.  

There is also lots of production and reserve data to be had.  Most of it is corporate, proprietary.  I used to have access to reams and reams of it..  But it is not public, and for instance I doubt that few outside of Saudi Aramco really know what is happening there.  If anything, Saudi has vastly overstated her reserves.

As far as deep oil, its really rare, and only happens in rare circuмstances, all easily explainable, all biotic.  Usually when the strata that produces oil goes deep it cooks the oil into natgas, which opens up another point.  Abiotic gas is more probable, and perhaps as much as one thousanths of one percent of natgas is abiotic in origin.  But again, nothing meaningful...

I would ask the author to show me one molecule of natural abiotic oil.  It would sure get my interest and cause an immediate sensation as NONE has ever been found.  Verify it yourself, grab some crude and a microscope and you find microfossils, and both the microfossils and the carbon in the aliphatic chains can be carbon dated, and always matches...

From what I have learned one might as well say that coal is abiotic, or trees for that matter...

Peak oil, in that oil supplies will increase til they peak and decrease is truth.  There is no escaping it...

In my opinion the issue here is that the elites have always used resources and currencies to control the masses.  Nowadays oil is the primary resource, as pretty much all other resources are now dependant on it.  The dollar exists as the reserve currency of the world, and it is now in essence a marker for oil.

The elites have always used this combo to manipulate markets, economies, and control the populace.  For instance the collapse of the soviet union and the ruble was effected by manipulating the price of oil way up, thru artificial scarcity, forcing military spending thru threat of war, then opening up the spigots of Saudi and OPEC, crashing the price of oil, thus crashing the overextended Soviet economy.  The manipulation of oil supply and price, two sides of the same coin, is powerful.  It can make or break even great nations like the former USSR.  It is the prime control mechanism of the Earth.

Now however, the elites have a quandry.  The time when this control ceases and permanent shortages ensue with the accompaning currency collapses will end the system, and the elite control of it.  The only solution is demand destruction, which is easiest to do thru depopulation, thru war.  There has to be a surplus oil capacity to maintain the current system, and that is eroding very quickly.  To maintain power demand destruction of oil has to be accomplished, or the elites are out of the control mechanisms and the entire world plunges into chaos.  Better manage the chaos then, attempt to bring the world to a depopulating event, as when it is over the same control mechanisms can still exist, and the system can continue..

Does this make sense??  Its why I get upset over abiotic oil, as it leads away from the truth.  But oil supplies and currencies have always been manipulated, make no mistake..

Campy, I believe the sun has much more impact on terrestrial happenings that current science has considered.  Yes, sol is responsible for a considerable amount of global warming.  But I believe that manmade CO2 is also warming things up.  I havnt studied the issues carefully enough to assert a percentage, but I believe both factors are at work, and I lean towards the sun being perhaps more primary..

Chant, I fisrt became a seeker during the Clinton campaign.  I was contracting on Gulf of Mexico rigs.  Kellog, Brown, and Root supplied these rigs.  Haliburton.  Often, the boat unloaded pallets with buff armed guys who were our guests til another KBR boat came and offloaded them.  One didnt ask questions, its a big ocean and accidents are very plausible.  One day a pallet was punctured.  Cocaine.  Made me real curious.  To make a long story short the coke was going to Arkansas, the funds laundered thru HUD, fueling the LA crack epidemic, and funding Clinton.  Haliburton (Cheney) funding Clinton with drugs??  Threw me for a loop, and Ive been searching for truth ever since my illusions of reality were shattered that day on an oil rig...  There are far more to many things than meet the eye..

In my opinion the issue here is that the elites have always used resources and currencies to control the masses.  Nowadays oil is the primary resource, as pretty much all other resources are now dependant on it.  The dollar exists as the reserve currency of the world, and it is now in essence a marker for oil.

The elites have always used this combo to manipulate markets, economies, and control the populace.  For instance the collapse of the soviet union and the ruble was effected by manipulating the price of oil way up, thru artificial scarcity, forcing military spending thru threat of war, then opening up the spigots of Saudi and OPEC, crashing the price of oil, thus crashing the overextended Soviet economy.  The manipulation of oil supply and price, two sides of the same coin, is powerful.  It can make or break even great nations like the former USSR.  It is the prime control mechanism of the Earth...

My opinion also except I used the words puppetmasters & globalists & referred to the peak oil & anbiotic issue being a controlled subject by the above for the sole purpose of control & not scarcity of oil.

Now however, the elites have a quandry.  The time when this control ceases and permanent shortages ensue with the accompaning currency collapses will end the system, and the elite control of it.  The only solution is demand destruction, which is easiest to do thru depopulation, thru war.  There has to be a surplus oil capacity to maintain the current system, and that is eroding very quickly.  To maintain power demand destruction of oil has to be accomplished, or the elites are out of the control mechanisms and the entire world plunges into chaos.  Better manage the chaos then, attempt to bring the world to a depopulating event, as when it is over the same control mechanisms can still exist, and the system can continue....

Now here you see SCARCITY as the reason for the elites to maintain power & give reason for depopulation & war (chaos)
where I don't... I see oil as a weapon being used to maintain this world dominance of control for the world's resources & enslavement of the peoples for the nєω ωσrℓ∂ σr∂єr. I believe scarcity has nothing to do with this goal except people wise(depopulation).

Does this make sense??  Its why I get upset over abiotic oil, as it leads away from the truth.  But oil supplies and currencies have always been manipulated, make no mistake..

Quote

You are willing to believe the 'peak oil' scarcity after knowing what & how the elite work... Sorry you get upset over the abiotic oil but as I stated before I see BOTH issues being controlled.
It also makes sense if I see peak oil as a another lie being perpetrated by them & as another CONTROL weapon being used against the peoples.Oil is only scarce because they choose to do this.
The difference here is you believe the elitist peak oil story... I don't.
I keep looking for the 'amero' anytime now.
May I ask...is oil a souce of income for you? Just wondering from a few comments you have written.

I "believe in Peak Oil" because it meshes with everything I know about today's economic system -- fiat currency, massive interest (usury), debt, derivatives, etc. The system is crazy, but it allows for  people to go in the hole as they never have before.

I also know that our whole economy is built around "cheap oil". Heaven help us if that oil becomes a bit too expensive, nevermind scarce. Our economy will grind into a recession, if not a depression.

I also trust the whistleblowers who have hands-on experience in the field (many men like Dennis "niteflyer" here) who know how the industry works, where it's been, where it's going, etc.

Everyone says that most of the "big, jackpot" oil fields are drying up, one by one. This last fall, fierce rumors and reports were swirling that Saudi Arabia (the last of the huge fields) might have peaked. They were pumping out the crappy, thick kind of oil instead of sweet crude -- and no one even wanted it.

Besides, what does it matter if nature reduces our oil supply vs. the executives at Exxon and Shell? It's all the same to us -- plant a garden, get a fuel-efficient car, become less dependent on electricity/oil/gas, learn a down to earth skill, move closer to work/family, etc.

Matthew

Hi niteflyer,
I do admire your persistance.
I will also check out the sites you recommend when I get a chance.
So we are only as you said :
I guess we are debating scarcity driving events toward depopulation versus artificial scarcity being the driving factor.

I think Chant took care of that:
Besides, what does it matter if nature reduces our oil supply vs. the executives at Exxon and Shell? It's all the same to us -- plant a garden, get a fuel-efficient car, become less dependent on electricity/oil/gas, learn a down to earth skill, move closer to work/family, etc.

Because I would agree with that.

As of right now I still disagree with you gentlemen on 'peak oil'....but of course I'm only a woman what do I know of this issue.  :roll-laugh1:

Thank you, Niteflyer.  Control is the only thing I could think of, but why?  It does make sense that they would want to pick and choose who lives and who dies, though, given all the genetic engineering they're into.  What a frightful world those pea brains would make of it if they could, choosing all the wrong traits for all the wrong reasons.

Interesting that you think there is more than one power mad elite group.  We tend to think they are all part and parcel, pyramid style.  

I, too, hope that their plans don't come to fruition, but I base my hope in God and the unpredictability of the human spirit.  There is one good reason why it might be important whether this is a man made or a natural shortage.  If it is natural then perhaps the elites are caught short, too (as you mentioned).  In which case they aren't completely in control.  Less control for them means more control for us, and that's good.

Aside from a garden, people should learn to hunt, fish and trap.  One specie I would like to see in the pot are coyotes.  And no complaints from the fur loving section.  Coyotes kill for the fun of it and are on my extinction list forever, along with cockroaches, flies and poisonous snakes and spiders.  Those in the country are far better off than those in those in the city.  I don't know what is to become of the whey backed city slickers.  They are SO domesticated.

My husband was working for a woodworking company, but they've been cutting hours for the past year (now down to three days a week).  Now he works for a plastic company and business is booming (mandatory 52 hours).  The stores are lousy with plastic.  Just think of all the silly, useless plastic toys.  It's kind of ironic that we have traded in food for the plastic containers it comes in.

Anybody have any good coyote recipes?