Dunno,
I have not read that the falcon base incident was claimed by any groups, so we don't know what group or militia perpetrated the attack.
"They" is quite hard to define as there are many militia's, mixed in with ethnic violence, insurgency and tribal allegiances. It's quite dicey to make connections.
The Ramadan is quite certainly a reason for the upsurge. I'm anxious to see after the Ramadan and US mid-term to see if the upsurge has a fuel of it's own, or if it's due to the 2 external factors I just wrote.
We'll see.