It could be both.  The Apocalypse often has multiple meanings for each verse. 

Personally, this is what i've read:
1.  In a historical sense, this verse describes Our Lady who "gave birth" to Christ, who rules all nations with an iron rod.  The dragon persecuted the Church/Lady in the early days of Christianity.

2.  In a spiritual sense, it means that Our Lady, as the Mother of the Church, "gave birth" to all Catholics but in particular, the pope, who rules all nations.  The dragon will be at war with the Church/Lady til the end of time, constantly persecuting Her.

3.  In a futuristic sense (in my opinion, our current times), according to the Church Fathers, it means that Our Lady, as the Mother of the Church, will elect a holy pope, who will challenge the Dragon (who represents the age of the antichrist) and the holy pope will rule all nations "with an iron rod" (meaning, he will enforce religion and holy laws).  Then the dragon will persecute the Church and chase Her into the wilderness (hiding).

In the foregoing chapter St. John outlines the history of the Church from the coming of Antichrist until the end of the world in order to give a connected account of the two prophets Elias and Henoch, (or Moses) and the result of their labors. In this chapter he shows us the true nature of that conflict. It shall be war unto death between the Church and the powers of darkness in a final effort of Satan to destroy the Church and thus prevent the universal reign of Christ on earth.

Satan will first attempt to destroy the power of the Papacy and bring about the downfall of the Church through heresies, schisms and persecutions that must surely follow. Failing in this he will then attack the Church from without. For this purpose he will raise up Antichrist and his prophet to lead the faithful into error and destroy those who remain steadfast.

1. The Church, the faithful spouse of Jesus Christ, is represented as a woman clothed in the glory of divine grace. In the Canticle of Canticles the Church is likewise described as "she that cometh forth as the morning rising, fair as the moon, bright as the sun." The brightness of the sun is a fitting symbol for the enlightening power of the Church's teachings.
The moon was beneath her feet. St. Gregory the Great and St. Augustine see in this the dominion of the Church over the whole world, and her contempt for the perishable goods of this life. The moon with its ever changing phases is a figure of the transitory things of earth.
The crown of twelve stars represents the twelve Apostles and through them the whole ministry of the Church. It may also denote the assembly of faithful nations symbolized by the mystic number twelve.

2. The Church is ever in labor to bring forth children to eternal life. In the sad days here predicted the sorrows and pains of delivery shall be increased many fold. In this passage there is an evident allusion to some particular son of the Church whose power and influence shall be such that Satan will seek his destruction at any cost. This person can be none other than the Pope to be elected in

those days. The Papacy will be attacked by all the powers of hell. In consequence the Church will suffer great trials and afflictions in securing a successor upon the throne of Peter.
The words of St. Paul to the Thessalonians may be a reference to the Papacy as the obstacle to the coming of Antichrist: "You know what withholdeth, that he may be revealed in his time. For the mystery of iniquity already worketh; only that he who now holdeth, do hold, until he be taken out of the way. And then that wicked one shall be revealed."

One aspect of the supreme conflict between Christ and Satan, between the Church and Antichrist has been depicted in chapter XI. The present chapter depicts another aspect of the same conflict showing Satan to have been active within the Church and to have won a notable following. But he is expelled and the Church is purified and freed from all scandals. This struggle in the church is assumed as finished in XI. 1-2. In point of time then, the happenings of the present chapter antedate those of chapter XI. Satan fails to destroy the Church from within, and that leads to the battle with the two beasts in the next chapter, where they, inspired, instigated and endowed by Satan, strive to destroy the Church from without. In chapter XI., the Seer first describes the battle of the Church with her adversaries in Jerusalem and her apparent defeat at their hands, which, however, wins for her a real victory under the leadership of the Two Prophets and which ends in the conversion of Jerusalem; and thereafter he vividly narrates the battle with Satan in chapter XII. and with the two beasts in chapter XIII. Probably because chapter XIII. is a continuation of the theme stated in chapter XII., the events of chapter XI. were narrated before chapter XII.

Verse 1

Before the eyes of the Seer, a great sign, the first of the "signs", a portent of something momentous, appears in the Church. It is of divine origin. "Signs" in prophetical terminology are ominous revelations of what is about to happen. Therefore the apostles asked our Lord for the "sign" of His coming (Mt. XXIV. 3). The pharisees demanded "a sign from Heaven" as a proof of our Lord's claim to divinity (Mc. VIII. 11; Mt. XVI. 1). The word furthermore denotes the wonders wrought by evil powers (Apoc. XIII., 13; XVI. 14; XIX. 20). In the Septuagint, the word is used for celestial phenomena (Gen. I. 14). The sign appearing here is GREAT, because it will indicate the time of the judgment that shall proclaim the "Great Day" of almighty God. It will herald the near approach of the events narrated in chapters eleven and thirteen. Appearing in heaven, it will point to the center of the whole desperate struggle for the possession of the world by Satan and his hordes. When this sign appears in the Church, the advent of Antichrist is near. In chapter eleven a reed, a symbol of judgment, was given St. John; in chapter twelve that symbolic action shall be fully explained. The interpretation of this "sign" is thus very important.
There are many and varied interpretations out, some of which are obviously impossible. One among the many extant seems perfectly logical and agrees with the best interpretations of the ancient Fathers. It is that of Father Gallois, O.P.; but strange to say, it has passed unnoticed. It is, however, adopted here, because it not only fits into the context of the chapter but also of the whole book.
The "sign" that shall appear to announce the arrival of direst judgments for the Church and the world is "a woman clothed with the sun and the moon under her feet and on her head a crown of twelve stars". This is the first "woman" to appear in the Revelations. She dwells in light and her very raiment is light and is thus the antithesis of the powers of darkness whose machinations are dark. She stands in a mass of light, which clothes her entirely, and upon an orb of lesser light. And her head is encircled by a halo of smaller orbs. She thus somewhat resembles Christ (I. 13-16) and God (IV. 3); yet the light is not her own, does not emanate from her person, as it does from Christ and God, but it is given her for raiment and ornament. These orbs of light are of heavenly origin, tokens of divine endowments. She has received light as her dowry, and on that account the prince of darkness persecutes her. This woman is a contrast to the scarlet woman of chapter XVII. 4.
The woman of chapter twelve is not the Blessed Virgin Mary. The ancient interpreters, beginning with Hippolytus and Methodius understood this to be a figure of the Church. Since Hippolytus was a disciple of Irenaeus who has associated with Polycarp, a friend and companion of St. John, his exposition should have greater authority than that of later Fathers who identified the woman with the Blessed Virgin. According to the ancient Fathers, the human nature or character of the Church is here delineated, while in chapters four and five her divine nature and prerogatives were depicted. Heaven in the Apocalypse is the Church as to her divine origin, constitution, endowments and prerogatives. In this heaven, the Church now appears in her human character. The human nature of the Church is clothed wiht divine authority, because the priesthood is endowed with the light and power of Christ. The twelve stars represent the twelve apostles; or they may be God's mystical number symbolizing the Christian nations, that as a contrast to the ten crowned horns of the beast, shall be the glory of the Church when the days of Antichrist approach. If these stars represent the twelve apostles, they allude to Daniel declaring that those who teach many unto justice shall shine as the stars (XII. 3). They would thus aptly typify the exposition and exemplification of the divine truth by the apostles enlightening the mind of the Church. The moon under her feet has ever been understood to symbolize the unchanging and unchangeable character of the Church. Though consisting of frail human beings, she is not changeable like they or like the phenomena of nature. The moon beneath her feet fitly represents her power to make laws of discipline accommodating them to changing conditions in human society; and this power and right is also of divine origin.

Verse 2

The "sign" in heaven is that of a woman with child crying out in her travail and anguish of delivery. This has often been held to mean the constant travail of the Church to beget faithful followers for Christ, the teaching Church ever suffering from the curse of sin. The blame for the sins of her members has persistently been imputed to the priests, who thus suffer the curse pronounced upon Eve. When saving souls the Church suffers the agony or travail in giving them spiritual birth. Hippolytus and Methodius give such applications to this detail of the vision. However, the text demands a more specific application to the definite future event to which the prophecy obviously points, and in which the Church suffers the keenest pangs passing at that time through the greatest crisis of her whole life. In that travail, she gives birth to some definite "person" who is to RULE the Church with a rod of iron (verse 5). It then points to a conflict waged within the Church to elect one who was to "rule all nations" in the manner clearly stated. In accord with the text this is unmistakably a PAPAL ELECTION, for only Christ and His Vicar have the divine right to rule ALL NATIONS. Furthermore, the Church does not travail in anguish at EVERY papal election which can be held without trouble or danger. But at this time the great powers may take a menacing attitude to hinder the election of the logical and expected candidate by threats of a general apostasy, assassination or imprisonment of this candidate if elected. This would suppose an extremely hostile mind in the governments of Europe towards the Church and would cause intense anguish to the Church, because an extended interregnum in the papacy is always disastrous and more so in a time of universal persecution. If Satan would contrive to hinder a papal election, the Church would suffer great travail.
Some commentators explain this travail to mean that of the ancient ѕуηαgσgυє begetting Christ. Such explanation is impossible, because the event lies in the future. (See IV. 1). Methodius holds and correctly so, that the birth of Christ is past history, while St. John in the Apocalypse writes of things present and future. (Banquet of the ten virgins - discourse VIII. chap. vii). But the explanation of Methodius gives that the general travail of the Church is meant begetting children for God through Baptism at all times does not agree with the text, because they are not all destined to RULE the nations with a rod of iron. By his explanation "the enlightened receive the features, and image, and manliness of Christ... and the Church travails in birth until Christ is formed in us, so that each of the saints by partaking of Christ has been born a Christ" (Dis. VIII. chap. viii). If this be true in a measure of the ordinary Christians, how much more eminently is it not true of the Vicar of Christ who has the mind of Christ and teaches and RULES the nations in His stead.