Maximum debt saturation. US QE terminated
Global Macro-Economic Environment
The global economic environment strongly portends recession and a general structural demand decline. 1) Global debt is at a monstrous level and is close to terminal expansion point;
2) There is a very high probability of a stock-market collapse/global debt contagion.Debt Statistics
$17,555,165,805,212.27 This is the size of the U.S. national debt. It has grown by more than 10 trillion dollars over the past ten years.
$59,398,590,000,000 This is the total amount of debt (government, corporate, consumer, etc.) in the U.S. financial system. 40 years ago, this number was just a little above 2 trillion dollars.
$100,000,000,000,000 This is the total amount of government debt in the entire world. This amount has grown by $30 trillion just since mid-2007.
$71,830,000,000,000 This is the approximate size of the GDP of the entire world.
$223,300,000,000,000 This is the approximate size of the total amount of debt in the entire world.
Most people tend to assume the "authorities" have substantially repaired the financial system following the debacle of 2008, but that is not the case at all. In fact, the total amount of government debt around the globe has grown by about 40 percent since then, and the "too big to fail banks" have collectively become 37 percent larger. Our "authorities" didn't fix anything. All they did was reinflate the bubble and kick the can down the road.Source: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/12-numbers-about-the-global-financial-ponzi-scheme-that-should-be-burned-into-your-brainCONCLUSION 1: Global Debt Growth Unsustainable
US Stock Markets/Economic Growth
Stock prices fuelled by liquidity and delinked from underlying economic performance (see below charts - Source: Zero Hedge)CONCLUSION 2: QE failed; suspended for now and yet cannot continue indefinitely. High risk of stock market collapse
Systemic Debt-Default Risk
$710,000,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000,000,000. Estimates of the total notional value of all global derivatives contracts generally within this range. At the high end of the range, the ratio of derivatives exposure to global GDP is about 21 to 1.
"I view derivatives as time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system. But there is no central bank assigned to the job of preventing the dominoes toppling in insurance or derivatives. The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal." Warren Buffet
Berkshire Hathaway annual report 2002. http://www.fintools.com/docs/Warren%20Buffet%20on%20Derivatives.pdfCONCLUSION 3: High risk of global debt contagion