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Author Topic: One man's prediction of the coming times  (Read 528 times)

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Offline Matthew

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One man's prediction of the coming times
« on: March 12, 2008, 01:27:40 PM »
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  • Found on a Kitco forum:

    I bought my first house in 1982 for $25K, rented it for 6 years, and sold it for $28 K. I bought my second house in 1984 for $25K, lived in in it for 5 1/2 years, and sold it for $47K. After figuring all my costs it turned out that I could have done exactly as well by renting and saving my money. And that was during a time when the economy was fairly stable.

    Things are not stable now. House prices have not dropped yet, they are only threatening to drop. Bankruptcies have not begun, they are only threatening to begin. Banks are not failing, an army of magicians are working valiantly to paper over the disaster. So far the delusion is working, but inflation exposes the folly of their acts. Inflation has only just barely begun, a mere 50% loss of purchasing power in 3 years.

    Then we have taxes to consider. As homeowners fall into receivership, cities will be pinched hard for funds. It will never occur to anyone to lay off workers and curtail services, they will raise taxes instead. The same will happen at all levels of government.

    If you own a house at that time you will be saddled with falling value, rising taxes, maybe rising interest payments, maybe rising insurance costs because of crime rates, decreasing services (cops don't show, water and sewer pipes go unmaintained, etc) and little or no chance to sell. If you also lose your job or the income from paper investments you are between a rock and a hard place. You can't leave and there is a good chance thieves will be stealing parts of your house right out from under you. (They have been known to steal copper wire while it's still connected!)

    Be harmless as a dove, but wise as a snake. Borrowing to buy a house is a dangerous move in the best of times. These are not the best of times. Rent. Rent until you can buy a place with cash in fist. The longer you wait the better deal you will get. I don't know what language people will be speaking then. There's a good chance it won't be English any more.
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