Some REALLY interesting insights (similar to many HP'ers I must say) from the respected Harry Schultz Letter:
Historically, October has been the month-of-choice for major stock market crashes. I've been moderately bullish on U.S. stocks, but the S&P 500 chart is in a bearish rising wedge. Not much left to go; make or break in October.
Nasdaq is stronger, but is possibly in a year 2000-type blow-off stage. History repeats? Dotcoms caused the 2000 NAS blow-off. Will the Aug.-Sept. bursting of the housing bubble cause the Oct 2006 NAS blow-off? ...If US stocks fall, world will follow.
October 2006 is potentially the most dangerous, risky month in modern history. That's mostly because U.S. elections come on Nov 7. Geopolitically, the U.S. is bound like Gulliver ... Its military is stretched to a danger point and its mostly bumbling politicians (red & blue) are unable to escape the clutches of two losing and unwinnable wars ... literal tar pits.
That makes the following otherwise-illogical moves as logical possibilities in October, when Washington would be acting or failing to act, for election reasons.
Schultz' list of possible October moves naturally leads with an attack on Iran by the U.S. and or Israel. Other possibilities include: Russia invading Abkhazia and South Ossetia; a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or the Spratly Islands; a North Korean "mega missile test" or attack on South Korea; a coup d'tat in Pakistan. Because of U.S. overstretch and distraction, he writes, "October is a free pass month for wild/risky moves"
Schultz says we're "poised between dramatic inflation and shocking deflation (short term?), either of which can come suddenly ... unprecedented debt vs. record-breaking money creation makes the situation explosive, able to go either way almost overnight."
Topic: October 2006 a very dangerous month (Read 867 times)