(((perpetrators)))

Hmm. The S&P 500 is only down 0.73%. I would think it would be down several points if there were a big crash coming.

Hmm. The S&P 500 is only down 0.73%. I would think it would be down several points if there were a big crash coming.

THE 'LOATHSOME'

The last and most sensitive step for the Fed would involve removing defaulted securities from the market altogether - either through outright purchases that would involve increasing its balance sheet, or "swaps" in which it would trade its own holdings of Treasuries on which interest or principal payments were expected to stay current for those that were in default.

English in the 2011 call warned that approach "would insert the Federal Reserve into a very strained political situation and could raise questions about its independence from Treasury debt management issues."

When the issue resurfaced during another debt ceiling stand-off in 2013, Powell - then a rather junior member of the Board of Governors with a bit over a year of service at the central bank under his belt - chafed at that idea in particular. But also didn't rule it out.

After endorsing a range of less fraught options during a briefing that October, the future Fed chief said, "as long as I'm talking, I find 8 and 9 to be loathsome," referring to the swaps and outright purchases.

"I hope that gets into the minutes. But I don't want to say what I would and wouldn't do, if we have to actually deal with a catastrophe."

Ben Bernanke, Fed chair at the time, quipped: "So you are willing to accept 'loathsome' under some certain circuмstances," drawing laughter from others on the call.

Powell responded: "Yes, under certain circuмstances."

WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve moved its management of the post-pandemic economic recovery into a new phase on Wednesday with what may be the last in a historic series of interest rate hikes and heightened attention to credit and other economic risks.


The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 5.00%-5.25% range, as expected by financial markets, but in doing so dropped from its policy statement language saying that it "anticipates" further rate increases would be needed.

The change doesn't foreclose the central bank's policy-setting committee from hiking rates again when it meets in June, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it was now an open question whether further increases will be warranted in an economy still facing high inflation, but also showing signs of a slowdown and with risks of a tough credit crackdown by banks on the horizon.

"We're closer, or maybe even there," Powell said of the end-point of rate increases that have boosted the Fed's policy rate by a full 5 percentage points in the 10 meetings since March 2022, a torrid pace for the central bank and one that may now warrant allowing some time for the impact to be felt in full.

Using language reminiscent of when it halted its tightening cycle in 2006, the Fed said that "in determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate," officials would take into account how the impact of monetary policy was accuмulating in the economy.

Top of mind: inflation and the impact of a credit tightening Fed officials feel is still evolving in the wake of both higher interest rates and a financial sector rattled by the recent failure of three U.S. banks.

At a press conference following the release of the statement, Powell said inflation remains the chief concern, and that it is therefore too soon to say with certainty that the rate-hike cycle is over.

"We are prepared to do more" he said, with policy decisions from June onward to be made on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis.

He also pushed back on market expectations that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee would cut rates this year, saying such a move was unlikely.

"We on the committee have a view that inflation is going to come down not so quickly, it will take some time," he told reporters, and "in that world, if that forecast is broadly right, it would not be appropriate to cut rates" this year.