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Author Topic: Doing the math, Housing Bubble style  (Read 602 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Doing the math, Housing Bubble style
« on: October 27, 2006, 11:05:35 AM »
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  • Let's do the housing bubble math

    2005: Homedebtor A decides to stand in line all night to score a Toll Brothers house.

    $800,000 purchase price
    +$100,000 upgrades
    +$100,000 lot premium
    ____________
    $1,000,000 total real cost

    2006: Homedebtor B takes the bait and picks up a similar Toll Brothers shack during the firesale.

    $720,000 purchase price (using yesterday's 10% price drop number)
    -$100,000 free builder upgrades
    +$50,000 new lower lot premium
    -$50,000 cash back at closing
    ____________
    $620,000 total real cost

    Now, seller A gets divorced (his wife left him for the realtor Suzanne), has to sell. It finally sells for just a bit less than the builder price (people will always choose a new home where they get to colorize vs. a used home) - say $600,000. He pays 8% closing costs or $50,000, total proceeds after close of $550,000

    You got it - $1,000,000 - $550,000 = $450,000 loss in one year. Or $1233 A DAY.

    That's doin' the math, housing bubble style.
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