Well, the only thing I can verify is that the Baltic Dry Index is down to a record low of 380 or somewhere around there.
Usually it's in the thousands.

This last couple weeks it's really been crashing. Maybe this is why?

The government can't manipulate that number, either. It's a direct calculation of raw materials being shipped around the world. If no shipping is happening, it means factories aren't ordering raw materials. And why not? It can only be because people aren't buying stuff.

Car lots are being stacked up with new cars to the moon. Eventually the car makers are going to run out of space and stop making them -- that means closing lots of factories and tons more layoffs. They're already giving car loans to anyone with a pulse (not a job, just a pulse!) A huge number of car loans are for 7 years and more. It used to be that car loans were 3 or 4 years. Now they're pushing 8 years!

As a not-so-rich person who survives partly because he doesn't have a car payment, I'm here to tell you that's bad news. So even if they get lucky and get a reliable car they can keep for 8 years, they will never be without a payment (no chance to catch up or do "something else" with that Car Payment money, even for a couple of years!) 8 year car loans is a recipe for being "under water", or owing more than your car is worth, real fast.

* The unemployment rate can be manipulated, and it is. They just don't count any unemployed people. Right now close to 100 million Americans are "not in the workforce". That number hasn't been seen since the 1970's.
* The stock market can be manipulated. The Fed (which creates money out of thin air) can just buy a bunch of shares and BOOM the prices go up again.

Unfortunately, most Americans only look at those two things in order to determine "how is the economy doing".

Well, the only thing I can verify is that the Baltic Dry Index is down to a record low of 380 or somewhere around there.
Usually it's in the thousands.

This last couple weeks it's really been crashing. Maybe this is why?

The government can't manipulate that number, either. It's a direct calculation of raw materials being shipped around the world. If no shipping is happening, it means factories aren't ordering raw materials. And why not? It can only be because people aren't buying stuff.

For the past 5 days, the Baltic Dry Index has been at 354, down from 380 on 1-14.

On 1-19, the day of Matthew's post above, it was at 369.

I wish I could copy the graph but here is the source page:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

It looks like the graph has hit rock bottom or whatever.  If you choose the 5-year option, you can see this BDI is the lowest it's been since 2011.  

Every year (for the past 5 years anyway) BDI has dropped to a local low at the end of January, and then within a month or two it has begun to rise again, but also, every year (for the past 5 years, anyway) BDI has been lower and lower.  

Here is a quick list (BDI @ end of January):
2011  1,137
2012     647
2013     750
2014  1,091
2015     513
2016    (354?)  - We have to wait a few more days to be sure!

.

The BDI is a good indicator of the global economy for the simple reason that everything, literally, is shipped. When people have money, demand is good, economy is good, shipping is up.

It hit an all time high in 2008 when it got up to 11793, the latest chart I can find is showing that as of yesterday, it hit another all time low at 358.

Here is a link for a monthly chart of BDI, someone has his analysis all over the chart showing low of 354 for yesterday.


 



 

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Here is one of the websites of the Baltic Dry Index:

http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.php

The Bloomberg site has more composite information (You can look at one function instead of three or more as you have do to on dryships):

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

Select the 5-year display option and see a clear picture.

Quote from: Matthew

Well, the only thing I can verify is that the Baltic Dry Index is down to a record low of 380 or somewhere around there.
Usually it's in the thousands.

This last couple weeks it's really been crashing. Maybe this is why?

The government can't manipulate that number, either. It's a direct calculation of raw materials being shipped around the world. If no shipping is happening, it means factories aren't ordering raw materials. And why not? It can only be because people aren't buying stuff.

For the past 5 days, the Baltic Dry Index has been at 354, down from 380 on 1-14.

On 1-19, the day of Matthew's post above, it was at 369.

I wish I could copy the graph but here is the source page:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

It looks like the graph has hit rock bottom or whatever.  If you choose the 5-year option, you can see this BDI is the lowest it's been since 2011.  

Every year (for the past 5 years anyway) BDI has dropped to a local low at the end of January, and then within a month or two it has begun to rise again, but also, every year (for the past 5 years, anyway) BDI has been lower and lower.  

Here is a quick list (BDI @ end of January):
2011  1,137
2012     647
2013     750
2014  1,091
2015     513
2016    (354?)  - We have to wait a few more days to be sure!

So --- it's now a few days later, and the Index has fallen further.
It seemed to be at rock-bottom before, but that was an illusion.

It has fallen from 354 to 317! (as of 1-29 which was Friday)

According to the above link to the BDI it is now -5  298 as of today 2/4/16.

BDI -4 (293) for 2/8/16.  I heard that BDI has not been this low since the Great Depression of the1930's.

The part of this report I *don't* understand or believe is why they'd refuse payment in US Dollars -- currently one of the strongest currencies out there.

(I didn't say it should be, or that its fundamentals are strong -- only that, for whatever reason, they've managed to make the dollar very strong)

That's why aluminum cans are 25 cents a pound, silver is less than $14 an ounce, and gold is $1093 an ounce. Oh, and oil is $29 a barrel.

I think it's bizarro world, but the US dollar is insanely strong right now.

For many years I bought the "dollar devaluation" hook, line, and sinker and began buying precious metals.  I encouraged family to do the same.  But when Warren Buffet and George Soros began buying US dollars I rethought my strategy.  The only conclusion I've been able to draw from this is they are attempting to constrict the physical cash circulation which would cause a much worse economic crash than the stock market.  If you recall during the Great Depression we had a constriction of cash--nobody had any.  Credit was somewhat easier to come by but nobody had a dime to buy anything.  Prices were cheap but they had no cash.  That's why some farmers and the poor didn't really lose much (there are exceptions of course).

Can a gold chain buy a loaf of bread?  I know such a thing goes on in Argentina but can we really expect that scenario to exist outside of urban areas?  I'm not sure anymore.  I now believe the best security for the economic tsunami coming our way is to own a home, reduce debt, and have a secure source of income.  I do think there are some industries that can survive like alcohol production, healthcare, and cyber security.  Oh, and government.

According to the latest interview on the X22 report. The BDI is down 62%
from last month. This has never happened before.
According to a friend that lives in Long Beach, Ca. He took a boat trip
outside the breakwater and saw many anchored cargo ships and they
do not look like they are lined up for bunker fuel.