Catholic Info
Traditional Catholic Faith => The Greater Depression - Chapter I => Topic started by: Matthew on January 19, 2016, 03:41:48 PM
-
Well, the only thing I can verify is that the Baltic Dry Index is down to a record low of 380 or somewhere around there.
Usually it's in the thousands.
This last couple weeks it's really been crashing. Maybe this is why?
The government can't manipulate that number, either. It's a direct calculation of raw materials being shipped around the world. If no shipping is happening, it means factories aren't ordering raw materials. And why not? It can only be because people aren't buying stuff.
Car lots are being stacked up with new cars to the moon. Eventually the car makers are going to run out of space and stop making them -- that means closing lots of factories and tons more layoffs. They're already giving car loans to anyone with a pulse (not a job, just a pulse!) A huge number of car loans are for 7 years and more. It used to be that car loans were 3 or 4 years. Now they're pushing 8 years!
As a not-so-rich person who survives partly because he doesn't have a car payment, I'm here to tell you that's bad news. So even if they get lucky and get a reliable car they can keep for 8 years, they will never be without a payment (no chance to catch up or do "something else" with that Car Payment money, even for a couple of years!) 8 year car loans is a recipe for being "under water", or owing more than your car is worth, real fast.
* The unemployment rate can be manipulated, and it is. They just don't count any unemployed people. Right now close to 100 million Americans are "not in the workforce". That number hasn't been seen since the 1970's.
* The stock market can be manipulated. The Fed (which creates money out of thin air) can just buy a bunch of shares and BOOM the prices go up again.
Unfortunately, most Americans only look at those two things in order to determine "how is the economy doing".
-
The part of this report I *don't* understand or believe is why they'd refuse payment in US Dollars -- currently one of the strongest currencies out there.
(I didn't say it should be, or that its fundamentals are strong -- only that, for whatever reason, they've managed to make the dollar very strong)
That's why aluminum cans are 25 cents a pound, silver is less than $14 an ounce, and gold is $1093 an ounce. Oh, and oil is $29 a barrel.
I think it's bizarro world, but the US dollar is insanely strong right now.
-
Well, the only thing I can verify is that the Baltic Dry Index is down to a record low of 380 or somewhere around there.
Usually it's in the thousands.
This last couple weeks it's really been crashing. Maybe this is why?
The government can't manipulate that number, either. It's a direct calculation of raw materials being shipped around the world. If no shipping is happening, it means factories aren't ordering raw materials. And why not? It can only be because people aren't buying stuff.
For the past 5 days, the Baltic Dry Index has been at 354, down from 380 on 1-14.
On 1-19, the day of Matthew's post above, it was at 369.
I wish I could copy the graph but here is the source page:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
It looks like the graph has hit rock bottom or whatever. If you choose the 5-year option, you can see this BDI is the lowest it's been since 2011.
Every year (for the past 5 years anyway) BDI has dropped to a local low at the end of January, and then within a month or two it has begun to rise again, but also, every year (for the past 5 years, anyway) BDI has been lower and lower.
Here is a quick list (BDI @ end of January):
2011 1,137
2012 647
2013 750
2014 1,091
2015 513
2016 (354?) - We have to wait a few more days to be sure!
.
-
From the site I linked above:
Profile
The Baltic Dry Index (replaces the Baltic Freight Index): A composite of the Baltic Capesize, Panamax, Handysize and Supramax indices. The index is designed as the successor to the Baltic Freight Index and was first published on January 4, 1985 at 1000 points. Last day of trading yr - Christmas Eve
-
The BDI is a good indicator of the global economy for the simple reason that everything, literally, is shipped. When people have money, demand is good, economy is good, shipping is up.
It hit an all time high in 2008 when it got up to 11793, the latest chart I can find is showing that as of yesterday, it hit another all time low at 358.
Here (http://stockcharts.com/public/1145481) is a link for a monthly chart of BDI, someone has his analysis all over the chart showing low of 354 for yesterday.
-
Here is one of the websites of the Baltic Dry Index:
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.php
-
.
Here is one of the websites of the Baltic Dry Index:
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.php
The Bloomberg site has more composite information (You can look at one function instead of three or more as you have do to on dryships):
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
Select the 5-year display option and see a clear picture.
Well, the only thing I can verify is that the Baltic Dry Index is down to a record low of 380 or somewhere around there.
Usually it's in the thousands.
This last couple weeks it's really been crashing. Maybe this is why?
The government can't manipulate that number, either. It's a direct calculation of raw materials being shipped around the world. If no shipping is happening, it means factories aren't ordering raw materials. And why not? It can only be because people aren't buying stuff.
For the past 5 days, the Baltic Dry Index has been at 354, down from 380 on 1-14.
On 1-19, the day of Matthew's post above, it was at 369.
I wish I could copy the graph but here is the source page:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
It looks like the graph has hit rock bottom or whatever. If you choose the 5-year option, you can see this BDI is the lowest it's been since 2011.
Every year (for the past 5 years anyway) BDI has dropped to a local low at the end of January, and then within a month or two it has begun to rise again, but also, every year (for the past 5 years, anyway) BDI has been lower and lower.
Here is a quick list (BDI @ end of January):
2011 1,137
2012 647
2013 750
2014 1,091
2015 513
2016 (354?) - We have to wait a few more days to be sure!
So --- it's now a few days later, and the Index has fallen further.
It seemed to be at rock-bottom before, but that was an illusion.
It has fallen from 354 to 317! (as of 1-29 which was Friday)
-
To select the 5-year display option, click on "5Y" next to "TIME FRAME".
-
According to the above link to the BDI it is now -5 298 as of today 2/4/16.
-
Here is something that I found on the internet about the projections how
strong the world economy by each nation will be in 2025, 9 years from now.
All I can see about every nation including the U.S. will be poorer when
we arrive in 2025.
Deagel.com
http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx
-
BDI -4 (293) for 2/8/16. I heard that BDI has not been this low since the Great Depression of the1930's.
-
Indeed, compare that to the 11,793 high of the index.
-
The part of this report I *don't* understand or believe is why they'd refuse payment in US Dollars -- currently one of the strongest currencies out there.
(I didn't say it should be, or that its fundamentals are strong -- only that, for whatever reason, they've managed to make the dollar very strong)
That's why aluminum cans are 25 cents a pound, silver is less than $14 an ounce, and gold is $1093 an ounce. Oh, and oil is $29 a barrel.
I think it's bizarro world, but the US dollar is insanely strong right now.
For many years I bought the "dollar devaluation" hook, line, and sinker and began buying precious metals. I encouraged family to do the same. But when Warren Buffet and George Soros began buying US dollars I rethought my strategy. The only conclusion I've been able to draw from this is they are attempting to constrict the physical cash circulation which would cause a much worse economic crash than the stock market. If you recall during the Great Depression we had a constriction of cash--nobody had any. Credit was somewhat easier to come by but nobody had a dime to buy anything. Prices were cheap but they had no cash. That's why some farmers and the poor didn't really lose much (there are exceptions of course).
Can a gold chain buy a loaf of bread? I know such a thing goes on in Argentina but can we really expect that scenario to exist outside of urban areas? I'm not sure anymore. I now believe the best security for the economic tsunami coming our way is to own a home, reduce debt, and have a secure source of income. I do think there are some industries that can survive like alcohol production, healthcare, and cyber security. Oh, and government.
-
BDI -4 (293) for 2/8/16. I heard that BDI has not been this low since the Great Depression of the1930's.
At the time of the Great Depression, nobody was using BDI because it did not exist as an index until about 30 years ago. BDI is a composite indicator which is calculated using several other previously existing indices -- it is a statistical calculation.
Now, if those other various indices could be at least estimated for the time of 1930, then an estimate of the BDI for that year could be generated, but it would be in retrospect by 86 years and as such, perhaps subject to some degree of opinion.
The Bloomberg site I linked above only allows you to view the BDI for the past 5 years. It does not show what BDI was 6 years ago or 16 years or 66 years ago.
-
According to the latest interview on the X22 report. The BDI is down 62%
from last month. This has never happened before.
According to a friend that lives in Long Beach, Ca. He took a boat trip
outside the breakwater and saw many anchored cargo ships and they
do not look like they are lined up for bunker fuel.
-
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND The BDI is now up to 291 (up 1 from 290 before). Probably a tiny blip in the current downward collapse.
-
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND The BDI is now up to 291 (up 1 from 290 before). Probably a tiny blip in the current downward collapse.
From a high in 2014 of 1,091 BDI.
-
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND The BDI is now up to 291 (up 1 from 290 before). Probably a tiny blip in the current downward collapse.
From a high in 2014 of 1,091 BDI.
That is quite a massive drop but it seems to be on the rise again. It's on 307 now http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND
-
The BDI follows the price of crude oil, for the last few days, crude has been bouncing off it's lows and is taking BDI with it.
If this move has any life in it, the BDI should get back up to the 650 area. If that happens, then we see if it can punch higher or if it fails and heads lower from there.
Amazing how it all works - the S&P 500 critical area that needed to hold was 1800 - the market bounced from that area same time oil and BDI and a few trillion dollars worth of other things did.
-
The reason I heard why the BDI is rising slightly on the X22 report today
is the building of new ships by China that were on order before the
world economy turn down. Once launched, unless the economy
improves tremendously, the ships will join the ghost fleets already
anchored off sea ports.
Or else the buyers of the new vessels decide to have them scraped.
To save money in storage fees.
-
Yes, buying a new ship is the biggest cost of doing business for the transport company, after that the next biggest cost of doing business is the price of fuel, which is why the BDI should follow the price of crude oil, not tick for tick, but overall the price of crude will dictate the price of the BDI over time.
-
Yes, buying a new ship is the biggest cost of doing business for the transport company, after that the next biggest cost of doing business is the price of fuel, which is why the BDI should follow the price of crude oil, not tick for tick, but overall the price of crude will dictate the price of the BDI over time.
Bunker fuel for ships are the cheapest of all fuel. With the fall of
oil prices now about $30.00 a barrel will make bunker fuel even
cheaper.
-
Why is kerosene still almost $5.00 a gallon?
-
Why is kerosene still almost $5.00 a gallon?
Good question. Maybe they are still using the kerosene that was refined a year or two ago?
-
Why is kerosene still almost $5.00 a gallon?
I say it is all the EPA and environmental regulations put on top of
those companies that refine kerosene.
I have not seen an active kerosene lamp in many, and many years.
Must have been a mountain cabin near Lake Arrowhead, California
in the early 1950's.
Here is a chart of the gradual rise of the price of kerosene through
the years.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMA_EPPK_PWG_NUS_DPG&f=M
-
We use a kerosene heater to heat our home instead of our electric forced hot air which costs a fortune due to the fact that our local electric company raises its rates every year, sometimes twice a year. When we first got the kerosene heater about twenty or more years ago, kerosene was less than .99 a gallon.
-
We use a kerosene heater to heat our home instead of our electric forced hot air which costs a fortune due to the fact that our local electric company raises its rates every year, sometimes twice a year. When we first got the kerosene heater about twenty or more years ago, kerosene was less than .99 a gallon.
Did I answer your question?
I lived most of my life in the Big City. Just have far distant memories
of my family use of a kerosene lamp in a once small town, now a
large City.
lots of the price rise is due to government's environmental regulations
and forcing companies if they want to stay in business to comply with
the regulations by spending lots of money.
On top of the companies that refine kerosene have to make a fair
profit to stay in business and pay their employees.
Just look at the kerosene can and see where the kerosene is refined
and if it shows it is of foreign origin. Means because of all the
regulations that the EPA put on the company. It was decided to
outsource the refining of kerosene overseas such as China just
to escape all the U.S. regulations. Unfortunately this cost U.S. Jobs.
-
We use a kerosene heater to heat our home instead of our electric forced hot air which costs a fortune due to the fact that our local electric company raises its rates every year, sometimes twice a year. When we first got the kerosene heater about twenty or more years ago, kerosene was less than .99 a gallon.
Did I answer your question?
I lived most of my life in the Big City. Just have far distant memories
of my family use of a kerosene lamp in a once small town, now a
large City.
lots of the price rise is due to government's environmental regulations
and forcing companies if they want to stay in business to comply with
the regulations by spending lots of money.
On top of the companies that refine kerosene have to make a fair
profit to stay in business and pay their employees.
Just look at the kerosene can and see where the kerosene is refined
and if it shows it is of foreign origin. Means because of all the
regulations that the EPA put on the company. It was decided to
outsource the refining of kerosene overseas such as China just
to escape all the U.S. regulations. Unfortunately this cost U.S. Jobs.
RC, thank you. Yes, you did answer my question.