Author Topic: 15.00 minimum wage-Does it work (Read 4244 times)

RomanCatholic1953 · « **on:** December 26, 2016, 07:10:11 AM »

Revisiting the $15.00 Minimum Wage-Does it work?

www.wealthauthority.com

A while back, we discussed the minimum wage hikes in Seattle and used it to paint a picture of how the rest of the country might fare under a similar law. The outlook was not good, but the amount of data at our disposal was pretty limited.

Now that the city has been under hikes for almost two years, and because another hike is scheduled for January 1, it’s worth revisiting the statistics to see if our previous assessment holds true.

November Jobs Report

If you recall, the November Jobs Report for the U.S. showed that the Trump Bump was helping the entire country. A specific review of the state of Washington and Seattle area can shed light on how Trump’s impact has weighed against the minimum wage hikes in the city. To start with, Seattle is enjoying record low unemployment, and by and large the Trump Bump is raining money on the masses.

It looks like the minimum wage didn’t hurt at all . . . until we look at the data that matters: retail and restaurants. In November, the Seattle area saw a net nonfarm job increase of 3,600. Jobs that employ the bottom quintile earners, namely retail and restaurants, saw a net job loss of 1,200 and 3,100 positions respectively.

If you also note that November is far and away the biggest retail hiring month of the year, these numbers aren’t just bad; they’re devastating. Even more damning are the numbers for the whole state of Washington. If Seattle is excluded, then the state added 3.100 jobs in the food industry. Seattle’s loss is so extreme, that it puts the entire state in the hole by another 3,000 jobs in that industry.

The Trump Bump was unable to reach this marginalized group, and the rate of job loss is accelerating, despite statewide and national booms.

Long-Term Trends

November’s findings were nothing new. Food industry jobs have been in decline in the region since 2015 (when the first stage of the minimum wage hike went into effect), and despite desperate attempts by proponents of the wage to deny it, there is now an undeniable trend.

Many wage supporters will claim that the decline in restaurant jobs predates the minimum wage, but that simply isn’t true. From 2011 to the start of 2015, the Seattle region added 25,000 jobs in the industry, and 5,000 of them were added in 2014 alone. That rate slightly exceeded the rest of Washington, and it far exceeded national averages.

Since the wage hike went into effect, Washington has added another 10,000 jobs, while Seattle has seen a net loss. No matter how you try to spin it, the trend shifts correlate perfectly with the wage hike, and the statistics from the rest of the state eliminate other regional or temporary factors.

Whereas early reports were showing that the wage hike was a wash for wage earners, downward trends have now held long enough to make the overall impact detrimental. Bottom earners in Seattle are now bringing in less money overall than they were before the wage hike. But, that’s not even the worst part.

A Perspective on Data

All of these statistics have one thing in common. They do not separate the City of Seattle from the rest of the metropolitan area. Bellevue and Everett have not instituted the same wage increases, so there is disparity in measurement.

In order to better separate the data, it must be made clear that Seattle only accounts for 25 percent of the total population of the greater metro area. While there is less reliable data for job rates in each distinct city, most reports suggest that restaurants outside of the minimum wage zone have not slowed hiring.

That means that the situation within Seattle is substantially worse than the impressions you’ve had up to this point. Job losses for minimum wage earners are so extreme that they are causing a negative report for an area three times larger than the region that is actually suffering. To put this in context, consider this analogy:

Suppose we took four students and averaged their grades. The top three students in the group all have A’s, but the fourth student is failing. In fact, the fourth student’s grade is so low that it brings the group’s average below passing. Assuming a standard grading scale, if the three A students each have a 90 percent, then the failing student would actually require a negative score to bring them all down so far. Minimum wage earners in Seattle aren’t facing a setback. They are facing annihilation.

Regards,

Ethan Warrick
Editor
Wealth Authority

Maximus33 · « **Reply #1 on:** December 31, 2016, 11:56:35 AM »

How about the whole American economic system is a pile of trash where it is hard for many people to make enough for a decent life. Sure, with both the husband and wife working, people can make it. But for people like me who am the sole bread-winner, it is difficult.

I cannot wait for this whole shitty American way of life to come crashing down.

JezusDeKoning · « **Reply #2 on:** December 31, 2016, 12:54:49 PM »

Not in all of the country.

There are some places where the cost of living is so exorbitant that it would be a necessity like New York City, LA or Honolulu (believe it or not!). And if it's ever proposed, it has to be gradual. It would decimate small business if it weren't.

If you want to really help the economy, go back to the pre-Reagan tax system where the top 1% paid 70% in taxes, introduce affordable university, put a cap on CEO salaries and let's have a single-payer healthcare system in place so people won't go bankrupt over medical necessities.

Matto · « **Reply #3 on:** December 31, 2016, 01:21:13 PM »

Quote from: JezusDeKoning

If you want to really help the economy, go back to the pre-Reagan tax system where the top 1% paid 70% in taxes, introduce affordable university, put a cap on CEO salaries and let's have a single-payer healthcare system in place so people won't go bankrupt over medical necessities.

So you really think the state should take 70 percent of people's income when the Church only asks 10 percent in tithes? When countries were Catholic did the state really take so much of people's incomes? What were the tax rates under Catholic monarchs? Did they ever approach 70 percent? I mean if we are going to have free public schools and free or heavily subsidized universities and free or heavily subsidized medical insurance the tax rates are going to be very high.

Last Tradhican · « **Reply #4 on:** December 31, 2016, 02:52:26 PM »

Quote from: JezusDeKoning

If you want to really help the economy, go back to the pre-Reagan tax system where the top 1% paid 70% in taxes, introduce affordable university, put a cap on CEO salaries and let's have a single-payer healthcare system in place so people won't go bankrupt over medical necessities.

Where are the people going to get jobs in this standard parroted solution? From raising taxes on the rich means? No. From free university education? No. From free healthcare? No. Those are not solutions to the problem.

We need to produce what we consume, then everyone will have jobs, and then you can tax some income, do something with the free university degree, and be able to pay the single-payer healthcare.

Here is one solution: We have to tax imports to cover for all the laws that have to be followed by US manufacturers, every single last one of them. Then USA manufacturers will be able to compete on a level field. Also, Americans also need to buy American. It's either that or buy from the Chinese and have your poor neighbor rob you (which is what is happening today).

TKGS · « **Reply #5 on:** December 31, 2016, 03:16:12 PM »

Quote from: JezusDeKoning

Not in all of the country.

There are some places where the cost of living is so exorbitant that it would be a necessity like New York City, LA or Honolulu (believe it or not!). And if it's ever proposed, it has to be gradual. It would decimate small business if it weren't.

If you want to really help the economy, go back to the pre-Reagan tax system where the top 1% paid 70% in taxes, introduce affordable university, put a cap on CEO salaries and let's have a single-payer healthcare system in place so people won't go bankrupt over medical necessities.

I am constantly amazed at the number of people who fancy themselves to be Catholic but are, in reality, uber-liberal communists.

JezusDeKoning · « **Reply #6 on:** December 31, 2016, 06:45:35 PM »

Quote from: TKGS

Quote from: JezusDeKoning
Not in all of the country.

There are some places where the cost of living is so exorbitant that it would be a necessity like New York City, LA or Honolulu (believe it or not!). And if it's ever proposed, it has to be gradual. It would decimate small business if it weren't.

If you want to really help the economy, go back to the pre-Reagan tax system where the top 1% paid 70% in taxes, introduce affordable university, put a cap on CEO salaries and let's have a single-payer healthcare system in place so people won't go bankrupt over medical necessities.

I am constantly amazed at the number of people who fancy themselves to be Catholic but are, in reality, uber-liberal communists.

A) What I believe is fiscal CENTRISM, brother. "Uber-liberal communism" is things like Venezuela, pre-Deng Xiaoping China and Vietnam.

B) Would anything like this magnitude ever happen here? Hell no. We're a country of a 1/3rd of a billion people, nothing gets done here on a national level.

Matto · « **Reply #7 on:** December 31, 2016, 06:57:06 PM »

Quote from: JezusDeKoning

A) What I believe is fiscal CENTRISM, brother. "Uber-liberal communism" is things like Venezuela, pre-Deng Xiaoping China and Vietnam.

Centrism. Well in our liberal world the politics move to the left every generation so if you would be a centrist now twenty years ago you would be considered a far left liberal with the same views and a hundred years ago you would be considered so liberal that you views would be off the charts and everyone would think you were insane.

RomanCatholic1953 · « **Reply #8 on:** December 31, 2016, 09:10:37 PM »

If it was not for these useless wars in the middle east that is a cover for
the expansion of Greater Israel in which American and NATO soldiers are
used instead of Israeli soldiers. Closing down those Military bases
that are not needed. And stop being the world's Policeman.
We will have so much money that could be used for rebuilding our
infrastructure, our cities, Free Medical care. Free College education
without the brainwashing, and many and many more.
This can be done without raising no one's taxes including the wealthy
whom actually provides the seed money for future industrial expansion,
real jobs, and job growth with real increasing incomes. :cheers:

Stubborn · « **Reply #9 on:** January 01, 2017, 03:33:22 PM »

Everything is so screwed up it's almost unbelievable.

A low minimum wage acts as an incentive that is designed to advance the person out of that low paying job and move on to a career that either immediately or eventually pays a better or a living wage, a career where one starts at the bottom and works their way up the corporate ladder with the expectation of an increasing salary with each advancement. Depending on the career, one can expect to reach their plateau after about 10 years or so. Certainly with exceptions, but that's the way it used to be.

Those who chose to remain a waiter / waitress or fast food employee or whatever, whether of their own free will or out of necessity, cannot expect that low paying position to pay a whole lot above minimum wage because if it did, that would only mean higher prices paid for all the consumers, which, as common sense should dictate, it's only a matter of time before that $15/hour will need to go up to $20/hour, then $25/hour and so on.

My advise is to tell them to get a real job, otherwise all they get is minimum wage and they should be thankful they're getting that. Whose fault is it that they can't find a real job, that they're not qualified for available ones or perhaps that they want to make a career out of working at Taco Bell?

TKGS · « **Reply #10 on:** January 01, 2017, 04:09:31 PM »

Quote from: TKGS

I am constantly amazed at the number of people who fancy themselves to be Catholic but are, in reality, uber-liberal communists.

I should not have characterized anyone on this forum as an "uber-liberal communist".

Communists are, by definition, godless atheists, and I doubt any regular posters on this forum are godless atheists.

At best, they are simple-minded "useful idiots", parroting the wants and desires of the communists without really knowing anything about economics, human nature, or the Church's teachings on social justice and subsidiarity.

Whether their ignorance is a result of simply not taking the time to learn anything or out of spite and envy of other people is not a question I will contemplate. Their ignorance is, however, entirely vincible, and they put their souls in grave danger.

nctradcath · « **Reply #11 on:** January 01, 2017, 04:57:18 PM »

Father Fahey writes well on the above subject and I recommend his works to anyone who wishes to get the proper Catholic understanding.

TKGS · « **Reply #12 on:** January 01, 2017, 05:07:02 PM »

Quote from: nctradcath

Father Fahey writes well on the above subject and I recommend his works to anyone who wishes to get the proper Catholic understanding.

Excellent advice.

Meg · « **Reply #13 on:** January 29, 2017, 08:54:22 AM »

I do think that there will be fewer jobs in Seattle (retail and restaurant, mainly)and in the surrounding area, due to the new minimum wage law. I work part-time in a grocery store (large chain store) in a suburb of Seattle. Recently, the store management have decided not to replace workers who are quitting or transferring to other departments. This means that there will be fewer workers to do the job. Meaning that the workers will be over-burdened with too much to do, which isn't much fun, that's for sure.

I think that this is how they are dealing with the issue of the new minimum wage, which I was against, even though our union pushed for it, of course. I told our union rep that such a high minimum wage was a bad idea, but being an uber-liberal, he didn't pay any attention.

JezusDeKoning · « **Reply #14 on:** January 29, 2017, 09:37:42 AM »

It would decimate small business.