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Author Topic: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low  (Read 2238 times)

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Offline SeanJohnson

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US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
« on: May 15, 2023, 07:54:26 AM »
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  • U.S. beef cattle inventory lowest since 1962
    U.S. beef herd down due to input prices and drought.
    Picture of Ryan McGeeney title=Picture of Ryan McGeeney
    Ryan McGeeney
    February 27, 2023
    3 Min Read
    Beef Herd title=Beef Herd
    In its bi-annual cattle report, USDA reported a total of 89.3 million head as of Jan. 1, 2023 — 3% lower than the total reported a year ago, and the lowest since 2015. Beef cattle — those bred specifically for slaughter and meat sales — declined 3.6%, to 28.9 million head, the lowest total recorded by the agency since 1962.ERDINHASDEMIR/GETTY IMAGES/ISTOCKPHOTO

    Beef cattle inventories across the United States are at their lowest point in more than six decades, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
    In its biannual cattle report, USDA reported a total of 89.3 million head as of Jan. 1, 2023 — 3% lower than the total reported a year ago, and the lowest since 2015. Beef cattle — those bred specifically for slaughter and meat sales — declined 3.6%, to 28.9 million head, the lowest total recorded by the agency since 1962.
    In “Cattle Market Notes Weekly,” a newsletter focused on the cattle industry, University of Kentucky’s Kenny Burdine and James Mitchell, extension livestock economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture, wrote this week that the decline came as no surprise.

    “There was no question that the beef cow herd had gotten smaller,” Burdine and Mitchell said. It was “just a question of how much smaller.”
    Beef Inventory Graph title=Beef Inventory Graph
    STEEP DECLINE — In its bi-annual cattle report, USDA reported a total of 89.3 million head as of Jan. 1, 2023 — 3 percent lower than the total reported a year ago, and the lowest since 2015. Beef cattle — those bred specifically for slaughter and meat sales — declined 3.6 percent, to 28.9 million head, the lowest total recorded by the agency since 1962. (USDA)

    Challenges
    For many producers throughout the country, 2022 had offered a perfect storm of economic and weather-related challenges: input costs such as diesel and fertilizer doubling or even tripling, and a hot, dry summer that only increased reliance on groundwater in the absence of rainfall. For cattle producers in particular, drought conditions offered no replenishment of dwindling forage supplies, leaving many producers to cull deeper into their herds than they might have otherwise preferred. Elevated beef cull prices contributed to an 11% increase in beef cow slaughter, according to USDA.

    As Mitchell recently pointed out, however, the reduced supply combined with steady demand from the U.S. consumer at least meant greater profitability for those producers with stock to sell.
    ADVERTISING

    Biological lag
    “There is a pretty substantial biological lag in the beef supply chain,” he said. “What consumers experience at the grocery store is a product of what cattle producers were going through a year or two ago. It takes about two years for a new calf to become the steak on your dinner plate.
    “To the extent that we’ve got historically low cattle stocks today, that will lead to tighter cattle production, which means potentially higher beef prices,” Mitchell said. “From the perspective of cattle producers, this also means higher prices. The recent report from USDA just reinforces a bullish outlook on cattle prices for the next couple of years.”
    The downward trend in cattle production does not appear likely to reverse itself in 2023. According to USDA’s cattle-on-feed data, the number of cows on feed as of Jan. 1 fell 4% from 2022 numbers, to about 14.2 million, marking the first year-over-year decline in beef production in eight years, Burdine and Mitchell wrote.
    Source: University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture
    Rom 5: 20 - "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."

    Offline Ladislaus

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #1 on: May 15, 2023, 11:25:45 AM »
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  • Drought my foot.  This is engineered so that we have to eat bugs.


    Offline moneil

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #2 on: May 15, 2023, 01:46:03 PM »
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  • Drought my foot.  This is engineered so that we have to eat bugs.
    I have to comment, as the TRUTH is always important.  In my nearly 72 years, having been raised on a farm with livestock (milk and beef cattle, hogs ... chickens also, but only for our consumption), and having spent nearly all my working career in the cattle industry, the above is one of the most uninformed, untrue, and ignorant things I've ever read.

    While dairy and cattle feeding (feed lots finishing steers for slaughter) operations utilize a variety of stored forages, grains, and proteins (a large portion of which are produced on irrigated lands) legitimate cow-calf ranches are usually exclusively reliant on non-irrigated grass lands for grazing, usually land not suitable for growing anything else.  Any other feeding options are just not cost effective nor sustainable.

    When there is a very dry spring and summer ranchers need to sell down their herds to what the lower grass supply can support.  This will often result in a short term dip in retail prices because of a larger than normal supply on the market.  Come fall fewer calves will be coming to market and they may be lighter weight because their mom's produced less milk due to less grass.  The lower supply will push prices up.  Droughts usually last more than one season.  When abundant rains return it takes a couple of years to build the cow herds back up.  This cycle has been repeating since Old Testament times.  Does the responder think that was "engineered" also?

    There were also higher calf loses this year because of harsher than normal late winter conditions during calving season on the plains (I don't know about Montana).  In case someone brings it up, as the "city folk" and their suburban and small acreage cousins drive about and see happy momma cows and their babies frolicking on lush, irrigated pastures, and fancy barns for winter ... those are hobby farms, NOT real-world agriculture.

    Parts of the country are experiencing droughts, which will likely affect beef and other commodity prices.  On the other hand, Canada produces WAY MORE beef (relative to their population) than even the most serious carnivore could consume.  Trade agreements can be adjusted to allow more imports.  Despite these natural cycles, the United States is among the top three exporting countries of beef, chicken, and pork.  We can always hold back some supply if needed.

    https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/cattle-beef/market-outlook/



    Offline dxcat40

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #3 on: May 15, 2023, 03:36:21 PM »
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  • I have to comment, as the TRUTH is always important.  In my nearly 72 years, having been raised on a farm with livestock (milk and beef cattle, hogs ... chickens also, but only for our consumption), and having spent nearly all my working career in the cattle industry, the above is one of the most uninformed, untrue, and ignorant things I've ever read.
    News articles like these from the OP are more than likely just propaganda meant to disinform and---especially---demoralize. It certainly grabs peoples' attention though

    Offline SeanJohnson

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #4 on: May 15, 2023, 04:23:35 PM »
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  • News articles like these from the OP are more than likely just propaganda meant to disinform and---especially---demoralize. It certainly grabs peoples' attention though

    Except that you have no idea what you are talking about, as evinced by the fact that:

    1) Moneil's comment was directed toward Ladialaus, not me (i.e., "the respondant" being Lad's comment to my OP);

    2) The source of that article is a 100+ year-old agricultural marketing group;

    3) The article contains facts (i.e., there are no untruths in it).
    Rom 5: 20 - "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."


    Offline dxcat40

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #5 on: May 15, 2023, 06:44:30 PM »
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  • Except that you have no idea what you are talking about, as evinced by the fact that:
    Evidently you have the same issue in regards to the country you wish to make your home.

    Parts of the country are experiencing droughts, which will likely affect beef and other commodity prices.  On the other hand, Canada produces WAY MORE beef (relative to their population) than even the most serious carnivore could consume.  Trade agreements can be adjusted to allow more imports.  Despite these natural cycles, the United States is among the top three exporting countries of beef, chicken, and pork.  We can always hold back some supply if needed.
    Moneil can speak for himself, but I believe his own testimony is that there is no crisis. I don't believe that will stop you from continuing to post these stories, though will it? The doom-and-gloom narrative receives support from many sources, yourself (SeanJohnson) included.

    Offline Ladislaus

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #6 on: May 16, 2023, 06:08:10 AM »
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  • I have to comment, as the TRUTH is always important.  In my nearly 72 years, having been raised on a farm with livestock (milk and beef cattle, hogs ... chickens also, but only for our consumption), and having spent nearly all my working career in the cattle industry, the above is one of the most uninformed, untrue, and ignorant things I've ever read.

    Most of those 72 years were lived before this latest agenda to destroy the US food supply.  Evidently you haven't been paying attention.  For some time they were sabotaging chicken feed so that chickens stopped laying eggs, food processing plants are being destroyed by magical airplane strikes and fires from unknown causes, many chickens were destroyed under the false pretenses of "bird flu", farmers are being paid by the government to destroy milk, crops, and livestock ... and Klaus has announced that we'll be eating bugs in the future.  All just a series of coincidences.

    This isn't a question of your experience, but a question of the fact that the government is lying to us and all their stats are bogus.

    Snap out of it, man.

    And, no, dxcat, this isn't just "made up" by "alt media".
    https://time.com/5843136/covid-19-food-destruction/
    Quote
    Now, as experts warn that the economic effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic could be comparable to the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world, and as the International Monetary Fund predicts that the “Great Lockdown” could cause the worst recession since the 1930s, similar scenes of crop destruction have taken place, with reports of U.S. farmers having to make difficult choices to dump their milk, slaughter their livestock and smash their eggs.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html
    Quote
    In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury one million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors are crisscrossing bean and cabbage fields, plowing perfectly ripe vegetables back into the soil.

    After weeks of concern about shortages in grocery stores and mad scrambles to find the last box of pasta or toilet paper roll, many of the nation’s largest farms are struggling with another ghastly effect of the pandemic. They are being forced to destroy tens of millions of pounds of fresh food that they can no longer sell.
    ...
    The amount of waste is staggering. The nation’s largest dairy cooperative, Dairy Farmers of America, estimates that farmers are dumping as many as 3.7 million gallons of milk each day. A single chicken processor is smashing 750,000 unhatched eggs every week.

    I guess that because of the "Great COVID Recession" people need to eat less suddenly.  We could go on for pages on the mysterious destruction of food processing plants, with two of the succuмbing to airplane strikes within a week.

    Offline Ladislaus

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #7 on: May 16, 2023, 06:09:45 AM »
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  • Except that you have no idea what you are talking about, as evinced by the fact that:

    1) Moneil's comment was directed toward Ladialaus, not me (i.e., "the respondant" being Lad's comment to my OP);

    2) The source of that article is a 100+ year-old agricultural marketing group;

    3) The article contains facts (i.e., there are no untruths in it).

    dxcat is living in some strange fantasy land of land where the US is still good and acting in the interests of their citizens rather than for their globalist masters.  He probably even believes that the US actually landed on the moon :laugh1:


    Offline Ladislaus

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #8 on: May 16, 2023, 06:24:27 AM »
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  • Offline dxcat40

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #9 on: May 16, 2023, 07:46:44 AM »
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  • This isn't a question of your experience, but a question of the fact that the government is lying to us and all their stats are bogus.

    Snap out of it, man.
    The bolded is a true statement of practically every government. Propaganda is what we're dealing with on a large scale, but everyone is doing it. What is necessary is to understand the flow of these narratives and where they are meant to lead you. Blindly reacting to everything that gets passed around is being manipulated.

    And, no, dxcat, this isn't just "made up" by "alt media".
    I don't think you could tell the difference :laugh1:

    I guess that because of the "Great COVID Recession" people need to eat less suddenly.  We could go on for pages on the mysterious destruction of food processing plants, with two of the succuмbing to airplane strikes within a week.
    It's very likely we are witnessing widespread sabotage and supply chain disruptions. It's not true that food supplies are in danger of reaching critical levels and we are facing imminent bug consumption. The former requires more investigation than an conspiratorial email chain about how we are all going to eat ze bugs.

    dxcat is living in some strange fantasy land of land where the US is still good and acting in the interests of their citizens rather than for their globalist masters.
    It's not a fantasy, but it is a complex topic. There are many Americans who still serve the interests of Americans and do their best to do so, even in the federal service. They aren't 100% or even 99% pure evil goblins seeking to Communize everyone. This thing has such a life and breadth in history now that I doubt anyone knows any exact number, but subversion is helped by the different grades of efficacy in the effort. But as you believe you saw in NASA, with compartmentalization a few people or small group can cause major damage or subversion.

    dxcat is living in some strange fantasy land of land where the US is still good and acting in the interests of their citizens rather than for their globalist masters.  He probably even believes that the US actually landed on the moon :laugh1:
    Off-topic, but for your use: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0245538097/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0245538097&linkCode=as2&tag=httpwwwchanco-20 (or click here).

    Offline SeanJohnson

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #10 on: May 16, 2023, 10:16:31 AM »
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  • .
    Rom 5: 20 - "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."


    Offline SeanJohnson

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    Rom 5: 20 - "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."

    Offline SeanJohnson

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #12 on: May 16, 2023, 04:55:56 PM »
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  • New York to track and limit public meat consumption:

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/nyc-track-food-purchases-meat-cap-carbon-emissions/

    I wish I lived in Russia where they can eat meat.
    Rom 5: 20 - "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."

    Offline jen51

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #13 on: May 16, 2023, 10:30:58 PM »
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  • The drought is so bad here in the Midwest that cattle ranchers are indeed selling their cattle. 

    I have a friend who instead of selling their herd, sent them down to Oklahoma to graze in rented pasture because their pastures weren’t growing this spring because of the winter drought. 
    Just the other day I was asking my dad, who is a rancher, when he was going to put his cattle out to pasture and he said he can’t do it because the grass just isn’t growing- not enough moisture. He is burning through his hay reserves FAST. 

    Pray for us farmers and ranchers in the heartland! 

    Religion clean and undefiled before God and the Father, is this: to visit the fatherless and widows in their tribulation: and to keep one's self unspotted from this world.
    ~James 1:27

    Offline SeanJohnson

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    Re: US Beef Supply at 61-year Low
    « Reply #14 on: May 16, 2023, 10:42:54 PM »
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  • The drought is so bad here in the Midwest that cattle ranchers are indeed selling their cattle.

    I have a friend who instead of selling their herd, sent them down to Oklahoma to graze in rented pasture because their pastures weren’t growing this spring because of the winter drought.
    Just the other day I was asking my dad, who is a rancher, when he was going to put his cattle out to pasture and he said he can’t do it because the grass just isn’t growing- not enough moisture. He is burning through his hay reserves FAST.

    Pray for us farmers and ranchers in the heartland!
    Interesting.  In Minnesota, we just got over flood warnings, and some places still have them.

    https://weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/l/Minneapolis+MN?canonicalCityId=c41f9794b3d2e73e76735276a2b073711dc220e4944a75a2ab0f9b91e91472d0
    Rom 5: 20 - "But where sin increased, grace abounded all the more."