Surviving Planet Earth in the Next 90 days...
April - July 2011 (3 Months)
Thanks to Rubicon Decision and SEH, without them this investigation wouldn’t be possible.
Earlier this week, TEPCO released its two step plan for bringing the Fukushima Daiichi emergency under control. The plan is already in motion, and it has been stated that it will be completed within 9 months.
For everyone else, the question remains:
How will the world look in 9 months?
Japan undoubtedly will experience many more earthquakes, monsoons, and volcanic activity during the time required to bring the situation back under control. It is unclear still how much radiation has been released, and an exact list of the radioactive isotopes that have been introduced to the environment is still not forthcoming.
The purpose of this investigation is to show how volatile the situation really is, and the global implications it contains. We want to express to our readers the dangers of monsoon season, when radiation in the air will be brought back to the ground in the form of radioactive rain. So that our readers understand that with all of the volcanic activity in Japan, radiation attaches itself to the volcanic ash and can be carried and distributed to different countries. We want people to understand the potential global economic effects that might occur when Japan raises money to pay for the cleanup. We have never posted information with the intention of stirring up fear, we do it because ignoring these possible complications does not wish them away. As we began to formulate this question, we quickly realized that we would have to overlook many important facts if we looked at it as a whole. We decided to split the subject up into 90 day periods and plan to release this post in 3 sections.
Because we do not have all of the necessary information to make a complete model of what effects the nuclear disaster may have on the world, we had to start by compiling information released both from public and independent information sources. We began by making basic assumptions for the nation of Japan, economically, environmentally, and also in the plan that TEPCO released earlier this week.
Assumptions for the Prediction Period
April 18 - July 18: Approximately 90 days
Assume normal Spring precipitation.
Seasonally this is the Spring period. Heavy rains begin mid July.
Assume the aftershocks continue based upon the USGS prediction of months to years of earthquakes/aftershocks since it is more seismologically active.
Assume that the JAIF report is accurate since the independent values are within the same order of magnitude.
Assume that TEPCO will not be able to succeed in stopping the release of radiation and generation of water given their track record.
Assume that Russia will send the condenser/filtration unit at some point. As far as we can ascertain, it has not been officially purchased.
Assume some reservoirs of radioactive water will be on site at some point. News articles have been vague.
Assume that tectonic plate movement near Japan does not yield “The Big One”, a large earthquake the region is overdue for.
Assume that Japan will have to raise funds to pay for the cleanup. They are discussing a special tax to pay for remediation. There seems to be some public support for this.
Will Radiation Monitoring Results continue to be withheld from the public over the next 90 days?
There is a significant difference between what the people of Japan are seeing for a national radiation map and the current readings displayed on japan.failedrobot.com (individuals, scientists, and radiation monitors are showing dynamically on Monday April 18, 2011 12:34 am. (See attached photos and links) There is also a discrepancy between government regulating agencies in the United States, like the EPA, and International and Independent testing labs.
Notice differences between these two radiation monitoring sites:
Note for our users: Google Translate really helps to interpret Japanese websites that we have linked like the one below.
Via:
http://atmc.jp/vs.
Via: japan.failedrobot.com
Part of the issue for predicting radiation levels and accuмulated radiation levels is the disconnect between government figures and measured values. According to the government map, the highest microsievert/hour reading is 2 microsieverts/hour at Daiichi. According to failedrobot the highest reading is 580 microsieverts/hr.
According to the Reactor Status and Major Events Update 97 - NPPs in Fukushima as of 18:00 April 17, a report estimated by the JAIF, the radiation level is 520μSv/h
We think we should base our predictions upon the official JAIF reports, though the independent readings are similar vs the MEXT data which is nowhere close to the actual readings.
When will the truth finally come out?
As the JAIF continues to support higher radiation readings, and public disclosures of suppressed radiation readings come to light, we can expect more news agencies to cover the story. We can expect new revelations of high radioactivity in vegetables, sea food, and in drinking water. A well spring will grow as the stressed out and economically shocked Japanese public becomes extremely angry over radiation fallout. More and more people will purchase alternative means to measure the radiation to verify independently the actual level of contamination.
How many Earthquakes may Japan experience in the next 90 days?
Based upon this article, “Over all, there have been 400 aftershocks of magnitude 5.0 or greater in northeastern Japan since March 11. That is as many sizable quakes in one month as Japan typically experiences in two and a half years, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. “ (my emphasis)
They also say, “Geologists say the frequency of the aftershocks has declined since March 11 and will continue to decline, but will still remain higher than normal for a long time. “There is an increased frequency and it will last for at least five or ten years,” said Ross S. Stein, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif., who has studied the situation in Japan. “
Let’s assume that the aftershocks do decrease in frequency: 400 (May), 300(June), and 200 (July). However we think we will see more than the normal number of aftershocks in excess of 5.0, assuming that the intensity of earthquakes/aftershocks remains the same.
As the aftershock continue to occur, more and more damage to infrastructure will continue to happen, insurance claims will rise, and supply chain issues will be hampered. Japan’s reactors have performed admirably given the almost 900 aftershocks. But the Daiichi plant was rated for an 8.0 magnitude quake, and Onagawa was rated for a 7.0. Now that tons of water has no doubted stressed Daiichi’s infrastructure, and water has damaged its base even further, we cannot expect that these facilities are still rated to withstand earthquakes based on their original configurations, can we?
A strong 7+ earthquake could damage another nuclear facility, or damage ancillary structures that they depend upon. We cannot fathom how bad the crisis could escalate if another nuclear facility is also hampered or worse critically damaged. If power generation alone happens, then it will exacerbate the supply chain issue.
The continual aftershocks will also hamper the on going effort to remediate the surrounding area of Fukushima. Even if it doesn’t get worse, it will create delays in transportation of materials, cause work stoppages, and in general increase costs of rebuilding. Many other surrounding towns outside the 30 km region need repairs, and aftershocks will slow down those efforts as well.
Amounts of Water Being Generated at Fukushima
According to the latest IAEA Briefing on Fukushima Nuclear Accident (15 April 2011, 14:30 UTC)
“In Unit 1, fresh water is being continuously injected into the RPV through the feed-water line at an indicated flow rate of 6 m3/h using a temporary electric pump with off-site power. In Units 2 and 3, fresh water is being continuously injected through the fire extinguisher lines at an indicated rate of 7 m3/h using temporary electric pumps with off-site power.”
Over the three month period (90 days), we can expect to generate :
Unit 1) 6 cubic meters/h x 24 hours x 90 days = 12,960 cubic meters
Unit 2) 7 cubic meters/h x 24 hours x 90 days = 15,120 cubic meters
Unit 3) 7 cubic meters/h x 24 hours x 90 days = 15,120 cubic meters
Total amounts of water just to cool the reactors = 43,200 cubic meters
1 cubic meter = 1 metric ton. Therefore 43,200 metric tons
What may happen if there is a water outage?
At times, TEPCO units have lost power due to earthquakes and aftershocks. Diesel generators are supposed to kick in when this happens, and even barring that, battery backup systems can last for four or eight hour periods. During the April 7th earthquake, 4 of 5 temporary power lines went down, workers had to evacuate, diesel generated power was lost, and there were major worries at the extemporaneous meeting with the press.
With all of the water being generated, and it being of such grave importance, we can imagine that a minor mishap in piping, in power generation, earthquake damage, a lack of potable water due to radioactivity, an accident, or sabotage, etc could cause a water outage. Since the only means they have to cool the reactors is to continuously pour tons of water on them, we could very easily foresee a risky switch to sea water again, or an incident where water could not be applied for multiple days. Several times, TEPCO has mentioned that a three day stoppage of water could result in a nuclear meltdown.
Radiation Remediation
We can expect no abatement in the amounts of radiation released for the first three month period. Water will continue to cool the reactor in the same manner, though the plan is to use the same radioactive water, and condense and filter it with a special nuclear device (Landysh) which is shipping from Russia. Still, the plan calls for that to occur just after the first three month period. This radioactive water will have to be stored in reservoirs. A decision will have to be made (based upon political agreements with neighboring countries) to release it slowly off the eastern coast of Japan. Alternatively, and most probably, it will have to be stored in the reservoirs until it can be treated by the Landysh device.
Uncertainty over the Russian Landysh Device
According to Russia Today:
“Experts believe that the Landysh can be used to process radioactive water, which has filled a number of the Fukushima plant’s premises and drainage system. According to earlier reports, tens of thousands of tons of radioactive water had collected in the plant’s systems. The radioactive water is due to be collected in special cisterns.
The Landysh has the capacity to process 7,000 cubic meters of liquid radioactive waste a year. The water can then even be used to breed fish. The factory, however, can only rework waste of low and medium radioactivity.”
Given it’s limitations listed above, it remains unclear if the Landysh can accommodate the radiation levels (which are described as high) and the sheer volumes involved. Assuming only one has been purchased (there’s no indication of more than one will be purchased. In fact, only the idea of purchasing one has been floated. The cost of a single unit is 35 million dollars.
The Landysh can only handle 7,000 cubic meters/43,200 or only 16% of the water generated in 90 days.
Water Generated to Cool the Spent Fuel Pools
T means Metric Tons
According to the IAEA, on 12 April in Units 3 and 4, fresh water (35 T and 195 T respectively) was sprayed over the Spent Fuel Pools using a Concrete Pump Truck. A sample of the water in the spent fuel pool was collected for analysis. On 14 April, a concrete pump truck, with a capacity of 50T/h, began spraying fresh water to the Unit 3 spent fuel pool. In Unit 4, a sample of the water in the spent fuel pool was collected for analysis.
Let’s calculate the amount:
50T/h x 24 h= 1200 tons in one day alone on one spent fuel pool.
There seems to be high variability in the amounts of tons of water to cool the spent fuel pools (SFP). This makes it difficult to predict how many tons will be generated over a three month period.
Let’s assume 1000 tons of water are being generated per day as an ancillary amount to cool the spent fuel pools and in addition to the reactors.
Total tonnage of water in the ninety day period according to TEPCO:
1000 tons x 90 days = 90,000 metric tons
Estimated Total tonnage of water during the 90 day period
43,200 (cooling the reactors)+ 90,000 (cooling the spent fuel pools) = 133,200 metric tons
Now realistically, this number cannot be correct. We’ve often seen weeks where 20,000 metric tons were generated. We currently estimate there are at least 60,000 metric tons of water on site as of April 19. As we stated, it’s difficult to estimate the amount of tons of water generated. We think our figure is low.
Breaking News: Apparently their consultants have done the math too. The latest plan is to use a waste water facility that uses an Areva proprietary radiation precipitation process to extract and filter out radioactive isotopes. Developing...
90 Days of Exposure for workers at Fukushima Daiichi
Radiation limits for nuclear workers:
Once 100 millisieverts/year. Now raised to 250 millisieverts/year.
Note- ancillary workers in construction have refused the new standard. We anticipate issues with construction given the radiation levels.
What happens when radiation levels are exceeded? On several occasions, the Fukushima 50 (200 then 700) workers have had to abandon working within the reactor areas due to earthquake or radiation risks.
The most recent occurrence was on April 18th, when levels were
49 millisieverts/hr in Reactor #1,
12 millisiverts/hr in Reactor #2,
57 millisieverts/hr in Reactor #3
We already reported about the horrific living conditions for the contract workers at Fukushima Daiichi here. Life is harsh for the workers, who are allotted 50 ounces of water a day, and many are going without the simple luxury of a change of underwear. They use alcohol sprays to wash their hands and bodies since the plumbing in the building they sleep in is broken. Workers have been reported working in conditions with their feet submerged in contaminated water. Being exposed to these harsh surroundings wears on the human body, and workers generally work in short shifts in an attempt to manage the amount of exposure received while performing tasks.
While several have suggested using industrial robots, these must be specially hardened against high radiation in order to protect the electronics from failing. In addition, the robots must be able to navigate debris fields, something that robots have had difficulty performing.
Over a 90 period, it’s relatively safe to assume that radiation levels might be so high as to severely limit access to the reactor areas. In addition, any earthquake or aftershock of significant magnitude would necessitate evacuation. However as the disaster progresses, and public concern over radiation elevates, and as the world community looks on with deepening consternation, we can expect big changes in the management of the crisis. Expect further increases in either worker toleration levels, more Fukushima workers to be added in the rotation, workers to come down with radiation sickness, worker deaths, and even more unimaginable issues.
Based upon their proximity, the populations of China, Russia, North and South Korea, and their governments have recently expressed concern during the month long debacle. High radiation, fallout, and radioactive water could all potentially create poisoning of their ecosystems. Expect a gradual ramping-up over the ninety day period as concerns become worry then eventually outrage. As the radioactive water increases, and reservoirs fill, some water can be condensed, but this makes it more difficult (or impossible) to filter. Landysh units can filter, but unless there are abundant numbers of them, only very small amounts of the total amount can be filtered. This will necessitate dumping of highly radioactive water.
The current plan calls for reusing radioactive water to cool again. This will only increase the intensity as it flows from leaks in the reactors themselves. We think it will result in work stoppages due to high radiation, and mean even higher levels of radioactive dumping. We seriously doubt Japan will be able to continue to dump it at sea without a severe geopolitical crisis.
Note: no one has discussed how to deal with the radioactivity being generated and the inevitable issues with the monsoon season. The monsoon will naturally knock radioactive particles down into the groundwater, contaminate construction workers, and make construction difficult due to the mud formed. This will be a natural aspect of the next article in the series.
Economic Effects of the 1st Ninety Day period
Japan needs electricity. There are mothballed fossil fuel driven electricity plants that have pushed aside as Japan relies upon nuclear reactors. This means that Japan will once again be a major purchaser of fossil fuels to run them. An already aggravated and inflationary fossil fuel market will kick into overdrive as Japan begin purchasing limited resources.
The most likely candidate of fossil fuel is Russia given the Middle East crisis. We can only expect that the Middle East will continue to decline into anarchy over the next ninety days. If Russians are severely upset with Japan’s fallout and water pollution, severe difficulties will hamper energy trade between those two nations. Just as China and Russia have worked out new joint energy policies that circuмvent trade in petrodollars, we can expect Japan to acquiesce given the strengthening value of the Yen. Expect a slowly evolving shift in Russian/Japanese relations.
The dollar will grow weaker from the world economic crisis, the divisiveness in American politics leading to a stalemate between Republicans and Democrats, and growing inflation and continued high unemployment. A new crisis in US government backed student loans will come to a head soon. As American power continues to falter, and a world-wide move to supplant the dollar occurs, expect American/Japanese relations to decline.
Japan’s banks, insurance companies, major industries, and energy companies will have difficulty in managing the ramifications of reconstruction. Given the pervasiveness of the issue, we cannot see any change towards the better during the ninety day period. Expect more supply chain issues as inventories must by necessity grow to meet demand. A very realistic expectation might be the loss of multiple lucrative contracts as Japanese industry is unable to supply within contracted periods. China is the most likely candidate to seize these new contracts given the strong Yuan, declining manufacturing output from America, and an inexpensive labor pool.
There are already talks of nationalizing TEPCO given the $12,000 they have offered to directly affected members of the population. How will they finance the unanticipated reconstruction/remediation costs? Recently they’ve sold two billion dollars worth of shares in KDDI to free up assets. Meanwhile, their stock shares have plummeted while public confidence in the company has been laid to waste. However at this point, TEPCO is still approved to install new nuclear power plants in the United States.
Multi-national companies are leaving Japan due to the risks of their workers, inability to operate normally, and the drop in real estate prices. Morgan Stanley recently failed to make a 3.3 billion dollar payment on the Shinagawa Grand Central Tower for precisely this reason. As radioactive isotopes accuмulate in the soil, we expect these trends to continue, and for major corporations to vote with their feet.
How will Japan pay for the clean-up costs?
While the costs to repair and rebuild the earthquake damage are currently set around 309 billion dollars, we expect these numbers to increase due to inflation in currency values, inflation in materials due to demand, inflation in labor costs given all of the construction plus limits on available workers. Ultimately a total reappraisal of the damage costs will be necessary. As anyone who’s ever built a house has discovered, final costs are often 10-30% over budget. Given all those factors, we could easily see a new cost estimate at the ninety day mark: 500 billion dollars.
In a best case scenario, if TEPCO cools all the fuel rods, entombment of the reactors could begin. This is hardly a realistic expectation within the 90 day period though. The issue is, are there enough construction workers to do the job? Estimates vary, but one commonly used figure is 100,000 construction workers and liquidators to build the concrete/boron sarcophagus for the sole reactor at Chernobyl. There are six reactors. If construction workers are busy repairing other earthquake damaged facilities, then there won’t be enough for entombment. Or the flipside is true. Either way, expect inflation in labor costs.
If insurance companies fail due to the enormous amount of claims, the Japanese government will have to intercede to bolster them. The alternative would be to allow this to spill over into all other peripheral industries, and that cannot be allowed to occur. A comprehensive economic recovery plan is needed. We look for major announcements from political parties as they compete for power.
We’ve discussed the radiation effects on the countries nearest to Japan. What we haven’t spoken about are the economic effects of potential and actual fallout on Western nations. Cesium levels (based upon computer models) are about the same on both the east and west coasts of the USA. We may debate the lasting effects, and the extent of contamination, but given current calculated public health levels, they are thousands of times higher than normal. It’s too late to expect no fallout, and Cesium has a half-life of 30 years.
While the Federal Reserve bolstered the Yen (along with the other G-7 nations), we can expect economic effects from Japanese supply chain issues in the US. Currently, it’s estimated that US auto companies are losing 250 million dollars a day. However as early as two weeks ago, Toyota announced shutting down North American facilities (affecting 25,000 workers). Radioactive contamination of Japanese exports is a concern, though not necessarily a valid one. Given a faltering US economy, a drop in the dollar’s value, and stagflation, we can expect severe effects on the US economy.
Today, the heads of state from Japan and the USA announced a joint program to assist with rebuilding. We’re reserving judgement on the plan until we know more.The devil will be in the details. In theory, this tentative move is a step in the right direction.
In mid-February, China announced that they were selling 342 billion dollars of US treasuries. In one fell swoop, Japan returned to their former position of controlling the ultimate fate of the US economy. They hold 890 billion in US treasuries. What will they do, as they look for money to pay for repairs? Will they sell their own US treasuries too?
Conclusion
We can expect enormous challenges, changes, missteps, and even some small successes over the next three months.Given the nature of the fragile global economy, the limited energy resources, the mammoth future construction at Fukushima, and effects of fallout, our world governments should be working together to solve this issue comprehensively.
Working separately, and only considering how the crisis effects one country, will be disastrous. We feel that TEPCO’s plan is overly optimistic about execution times, costs, and probable outcomes. Even the slightest and unexpected natural events could wreak havoc on any rebuilding. It’s entirely unrealistic to expect miracles to occur at Daiichi.
Sources:
Direct links to TEPCO remediation plans:
http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/110417e12.pdf http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/110417e13.pdf http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/110417e14.pdf http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/betu11_e/images/110417e15.pdf Links:
http://the-diplomat.com/tokyo-notes/2011/03/11/japan-earthquake-update/ http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/18_27.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-15/japan-reactor-blasts-prompt-companies-to-move-staff-to-safety.html http://www.asahi.com/english/TKY201104150129.html ttp://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/17/us-tepco-kddi-idUSTRE73G02I20110417?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&ca=rsstmb&WT.tsrc=Social%20Media&WT.z_smid=twtr-reuters_biz&WT.z_smid_dest=Twitter
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/stone-mccarthy-sees-severe-adverse-economic-impact-april-and-q2-result-japanese-supply-chain http://ap.stripes.com/dynamic/stories/A/AS_JAPAN_EARTHQUAKE_AUTO_PARTS_PARALYSIS?SITE=DCSAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-04-17-15-09-06 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/15/us-morgan-stanley-real-estate-idUSTRE73E63E20110415 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/18/markets-forex-idUSLDE72H0N820110318 http://www.zerohedge.com/article/move-over-china-beijing-sells-whopping-342-billion-treasuries-december-japan-becomes-largest http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Docuмents/mfh.txt
http://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-north-america-factories-2011-4 http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/asiapcf/04/17/japan.clinton.visit/index.html http://rt.com/news/japan-fukushima-earthquake-russia-landysh/ http://www.areva.com/EN/news-8856/areva-to-set-up-a-water-decontaminatio...
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