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In the past, the discovery of a horde of rare coins has sometimes caused the value of certain years of mintage, mint mark, and/or double die and such abnormalities, to become less valuable, because suddenly a larger number of coins of that description were known to exist. You're talking about public awareness, which is a factor, but what the public is inclined to think about is a fickle thing. People could be interested one day because of the novelty, but check again in a week and they've practically forgotten about it. They would have to go out and buy coins for their "interest" to have any effect on the market demand. Window shopping and placing orders are related, but not identical, entities.
For example, the USA 1943 copper penny is very rare. Most all 43 pennies were made of steel, due to the war effort's need for copper. When the mints in Pennsylvania, Denver and San Francisco started their runs with new dies, there were some remnant copper stock in the feeders that was processed before the new steel stock came into being struck, and the consequence was that in each mint, a few copper pennies came out of the forges before the steel ones started coming out. Today there are only about 20 or 23 copper 1943 pennies known to exist in various collections. 40 years ago they were worth $20,000 and more, each, numismatic value. Today, going by prices reached in auctions, the lowest price is over $100K, and condition is not exclusive, that is, any coin identifiable as an original 1943 copper penny, regardless of condition, is worth at least that much. If it is in very good condition it is worth more, and if it is uncirculated, it is valued perhaps in the millions. But if a bunch of 1943 copper pennies were to be found buried in a vault somewhere (which isn't impossible), all of the other collections would likely suffer a loss in value, because there are only going to be so many people enduringly interested enough in such coins to bother to bid on buying one or more of them. Not everyone can afford to say, "Yea," when the question of $10K more is on the auction block at $300K. And among those who can afford it, very few are willing to SAY it.
The thing about this new find is, most (if not all) of the coins are slabbed by USGS or NGC or the like, meaning that they were recorded as existing in collections during the past 40 or so years. So while their precise location or owner might not have been known, their probable existence was known. Even so, sometimes collections are destroyed, such as in a devastating fire. Therefore, whether the price of any of these discovered coins is affected by this find is an open question. The price could go up, as you say, due to increased interest, but it would have to be due to someone actually BUYING coins or a number of people actually BIDDING at auction on coins. And when it comes to those who in fact make such bids, the knowledge that more of any particular mintage is known to be in collections can be a
deterrent to bidding higher. Those kinds of people who tend to bid at auction or seek private deals outside of auction, want to buy coins that no one else has, and the more rare a given coin is, the more desirable it is -- "everyone" wants something so they can say, "No one else in the world has one of
these."
And the funny thing is, there could be one or more coins in this find that is so rare that it is practically unique, and one such coin by ITSELF could be worth $10 million at auction, especially due to the fact that it is newly discovered, like this. The news reports round figures of approximate value but it might not be until particular coins from this find go up for auction that their current market price will become known for sure. Auction prices are the most common reason for particular mintage value increasing.
Maybe, but the rarity of these coins on the market means there may not be much of an impact on price. The fact the find is so public may in fact increase interest in collecting meaning the demand for the coins will increase. The value may go up instead of down.
Taken by itself, your proposition that
the rarity of these coins on the market means this find may not have much impact on their prices, is a false statement.
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Topic: Couple find 10 million in old gold coins in California (Read 4881 times)