Initially, you categorically stated without proof: "Pablo did not kill the dog." Later, in a moment of lucidity, you stated that you considered it "unlikely" that Pablo killed the dog. Look at the difference between those two statements, the first involves overreach, presenting as fact something you had no proof for, while the second acknowledges that it's your opinion that that you considered it merely unlikely (tacitly admitting thereby that you had no proof).
You didn't study logic at the Pfeiffer compound, did you?