CathInfo.com

The progressive restrictions on the celebration of the ancient liturgy serve to confine conservatives to hunting reserves, in order to then channel them towards the Society of Saint Pius X, as soon as the Synod leads the doctrinal, moral and disciplinary changes that are in the pipeline to their tragic consequences, causing an exodus of Catholics into what, after the suppression or normalization of the Ecclesia Dei Institutes, will become the “monopolist” of Tradition. But at that point – that is, when the traditional Catholics have migrated into the Society and its leaders believe they have won a victory over the competition due to the suppression of Summorum Pontificuм– a new intolerable provocation will force at least one faction of the Society of Saint Pius X to distance themselves from Bergoglian Rome, sanctioning the “excommunication” of traditionalism, which is no longer represented within the official Church, if it ever was. For this reason, in my opinion, it is important to maintain a certain fragmentation, in order to make the malicious maneuver of expelling traditional Catholics from the ecclesial body more complex.

I'm not sure I'm understanding the thought process +Vigano is attributing to Francis here:

1) He's going to suppress all diocesan and Ecclesia Dei venues, in order to funnel all trads/semi-trads into the SSPX.

2) The SSPX will gladly take them, thinking it a great victory.

3) But there will then be a provocation, which will cause the SSPX to split, in order to distance itself from conciliar Rome.

4) This will allow Francis to excommunicate "Tradition/traditionalists."

This is +Vigano's take.

I think he's right in some respects, and wrong in others:

1) Yes, I can see Francis suppressing all diocesan and Ecclesia Dei communities, in order to funnel them into an eager and willing SSPX.

2) Yes, the SSPX will promote it as a great victory (e.g., lots of articles and press communiques about their booming numbers, but all of them semi-trads).

3) But I disagree that there will be a provocation to cause a split, in order to use it as a pretext to excommunicate traditionalism, for the following reasons:

4) Firstly, this already happened in 2012, with +Williamson vs the 3 ralliement bishops.  +Williamson later consecrated bishops, and was in fact re-excommunicated (and all the Resitance who supported him implicitly deemed schismatics).

5) But it would be counterproductive for Francis to cause a split in an already captured SSPX: Why provoke a Resistance 2B, when he's already got the entire SSPX where he wants them, chiseling away relentlessly at their remnants of Tradition, which they blithely forego in exchange for privileges, jurisdiction, tolerance, etc?

If anything, Francis would excommunicate the Resistance, but I don't even expect that.  He'll stay silent with regard to us, just as Rome used to stay silent regarding Lefebvre and the pre-branded SSPX.  But he's definitely not going to do anything which would cause a portion of the SSPX to recoil from conciliar overtures.  If he lets them off the leash, he loses his control, and the conditioning process is endangered.