Most of your points are good, until this...
I personally believe Donald Trump will do what he says. If he doesn't, the people, real people will stop buying his products. They will stop spending money at his casinos and hotels. It will be really bad for his business. It will be a media frenzy. He doesn't want that.
1. "he will do what he says". Which is what? Increase tariff taxes? If/when china/asia raises their currency rates to normal levels or if/when the US raises tariff/import taxes is the day that our economy collapses because prices at walmart and every other store where they use imported goods will skyrocket! This has to eventually happen, because the market can't be denied, but if it happens all at once, wow! you'll be paying $10 for an apple and worse.
As you pointed out earlier, what can Trump really do besides pray that congress pass good laws. The presidency controls veto power (which is a negative power) and he controls the military. Not much he can do positively; he can only avoid a negative (bad law or war).
2. "If he doesn't, people will stop buying his products". Who's going to stop going to hotels/casinos if they disagree with trump? Those that frequent casinos are usually addicted and if they avoid his hotels, they'll just go to another chain, which is owned by a different billionaire, who supported Trump or Obama.
Face it, we live in a monopolistic world. This is why jobs are so bad; they've been cut because of mergers/acquisitions over the past 2 decades. And they aren't coming back. There's only 4-5 major hotel chains - all owned by many of the same people. There's 3 major cell phone companies, etc, etc. 'We the people' have no economic leverage. Anywhere we shop, it's supporting some big wig. Need to face reality on this one.
3. A "media frenzy" related to what? They'll attack him because he's a republican, which is part of the game. That's about it.