Author Topic: Can the GOP Get Together in Cleveland?  (Read 387 times)

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Offline Centroamerica

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Can the GOP Get Together in Cleveland?
« on: April 08, 2016, 05:48:52 AM »
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    After winning only six delegates in Wisconsin, and with Ted Cruz poaching delegates in states he has won, like Louisiana, Donald Trump either wins on the first ballot at Cleveland, or Trump does not win.

    Yet, as that huge, roaring reception he received in his first post-Wisconsin appearance in Bethpage, N.Y., testifies, the Donald remains not only the front-runner, but the most exciting figure in the race.

    Moreover, after the New York, New England, mid-Atlantic and California primaries, Trump should be within striking distance of the 1,237 delegates needed for the nomination.

    He will then have to persuade uncommitted delegates to back him, and perhaps do a deal with one of the defeated candidates, Marco Rubio or John Kasich, to win the remaining few needed to go over the top.

    In 1976, Ronald Reagan, shy of the delegates he needed to defeat President Ford, offered second place on his ticket to Sen. Richard Schweiker, a moderate from Pennsylvania.

    This brainstorm of Reagan campaign manager John Sears did not produce the required delegates, and Reagan received an envelope from a conservative Congressman with 30 dimes in it — 30 pieces of silver.

    Still, Reagan was right to roll the dice.

    But assume Trump reaches 1,237 on the first ballot.

    Would the GOP establishment accept his leadership, back his ticket, and help to bring together all the elements — nationalist, Tea Party, conservative and moderate — of a grand coalition to defeat Hillary Clinton?

    Or would the establishment refuse to endorse Trump, ensure his defeat, and hoping to pick up the pieces of a shattered party, as Govs. Nelson Rockefeller and George Romney assumed they would do after they deserted Barry Goldwater in 1964.

    Prediction: If the GOP establishment does collude to steal the nomination from the candidate who has won the most states, most delegates and most votes, not only could the party be crushed in November, but that establishment could be discredited in perpetuity.

    For those who have come out for Trump, and have given the GOP the largest turnouts of any party in a primary season in history, will not be give their allegiance to a Beltway elite that cheated them of the prize they had won.

    Sullen and angry, they will be going home, not soon to return.

    An establishment embrace of a rule-or-ruin course — Better to lose, than win with Trump! — seems irrational. But it is not irrational if one's preeminence and position are the summum bonum of one's political existence.

    To avoid the Hobbesian choice — back Trump or abandon Trump — the establishment must block him from a first-ballot victory. And indispensable to the Anybody-But-Trump coalition is Ted Cruz, whom the establishment, if possible, detests even more than Trump.

    One testament to the esteem in which Cruz is held is that only two of his 53 Senate GOP colleagues have endorsed him, and one of these, Lindsey Graham, did so as the lesser of two evils.

    Here is the second peril for the GOP elites.

    If Trump is stopped on the first ballot, the delegates who leave him on the second ballot may go to Cruz, and the stampede could be on.

    Yet, it is hard to see how a Cruz nomination is better for the party than a Trump nomination.

    For Cruz cannot win in Cleveland, unless the man with the most votes and delegates is deprived of a nomination to which he has a far stronger claim, if this country remains a democratic republic.

    A Cruz victory in Cleveland would likely lead to the angry and bitter departure of the Trump delegates, and, in the fall, to a mass defection of the blue-collar, Middle-American Trump voters, especially above the Mason-Dixon line where Cruz is already weak.

    The latest poll of Republicans in New York has Trump above 50 percent, with Cruz running third at 17 percent. Even in the South, which was to be Ted Cruz's firewall, Trump beat him repeatedly.

    And while Cruz can claim to be a more reliable conservative than Trump, how does that translate into electoral votes in the fall?

    Is the Republican establishment, having been repudiated in the primaries in a historic turnout by the party base, now engaged in a willful act of self-deception?

    Can that establishment believe it can rob Trump of a nomination he has all but won, then hold off a right-wing Cruz surge that would ensue, then trot out of the stable one of its own, Speaker Paul Ryan, crown him at the convention, and then win in November?

    This is delusional. And what this tells us is, to borrow from The Gipper, that the Republican establishment is not the solution to the party's problems; the Republican establishment is the problem.

    While the GOP appears headed for a train wreck in Cleveland, the principal ingredients of a Republican victory and a Republican future will all be present there: Cruz conservatives and Tea Party types, Trumpite nationalists and populists, Rubio-Kasich-Bush centrists and moderates.

    Political statesmanship could yet bring about unity, and victory.

    Unfortunately, the smart money is on ego getting in the way.

    We conclude logically that religion can give an efficacious and truly realistic answer to the great modern problems only if it is a religion that is profoundly lived, not simply a superficial and cheap religion made up of some vocal prayers and some ceremonies...

    Offline Nishant

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    Can the GOP Get Together in Cleveland?
    « Reply #1 on: April 09, 2016, 04:01:19 AM »
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    Donald Trump either wins on the first ballot at Cleveland, or Trump does not win.

    Buchanan is right on target here. It's why, IMO, Senator Ted Cruz, is now the favorite to win the nomination. Trump almost certainly won't get to 1237 after his Wisconsin loss and many of Trump's own delegates, legally bound on the first ballot, would not vote for him on the second. Just this week, Trump's campaign demonstrated more incompetence in organization, "Sen. Ted Cruz continued his Colorado winning streak Friday, locking up the support of 21 total delegates to the Republican National Convention, representing a majority of the delegates Colorado will send to Cleveland in July ... While Cruz's campaign spent months recruiting slates of delegates and securing pledges, Trump only this week hired a Colorado state director. Two candidates Trump's campaign told backers to support in one district were not even on the ballot."

    Senator Cruz is not perfect, but let's not forget the "most hated man in Washington" is disliked primarily because he didn't pre-emptively surrender on Planned Parenthood. He was absolutely right to do so, PP should be prosecuted as Cruz has said it will be - and the "shutdown" is only Obama's fault. He also opposed amnesty without securing the border first, which the GOP thought was necessary after Romney lost to Obama among Hispanics by a large margin. He did these things because he was elected by voters to do them, and where he stands is clear. He scores almost 100% from pro-life and other conservative organizations, he was just endorsed by National Right to Life. America in even 4 or especially 8 years of President Cruz will look a lot more like it was 60 years ago, there is a good chance abortion will be severely restricted. He rightly understands that "separation of Church and State" is an error even though he is only a Protestant. He's said he will protect the religious liberty of Catholic sisters opposed to contraception. He knows torture is wrong while Trump thinks it "works". Finally, with regard to electability, the poll show him doing consistently better against Clinton than Trump. Trump's unfavorability ratings are almost unbelievably high. Trump's heinous past statements about women, that reveal his worldly mindset, have hardly even surfaced yet, but rest assured Hillary will drill them in day in and day out if it comes down to her versus Trump.

    Viewer discretion advised - watch?v=OkSRJSUY0vs
    "Never will anyone who says his Rosary every day become a formal heretic ... This is a statement I would sign in my blood." St. Montfort, Secret of the Rosary. I support the FSSP, the SSPX and other priests who work for the restoration of doctrinal orthodoxy and liturgical orthopraxis in the Church. I accept Vatican II if interpreted in the light of Tradition and canonisations as an infallible declaration that a person is in Heaven. Sedevacantism is schismatic and Ecclesiavacantism is heretical.


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