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Traditional Catholic Faith => Politics and World Leaders => Topic started by: Neil Obstat on February 19, 2016, 10:36:05 PM

Title: Business Insider forecast of primary elections
Post by: Neil Obstat on February 19, 2016, 10:36:05 PM
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http://www.businessinsider.com/gop-republican-candidates-polls-upcoming-primary-caucus-states-2016-2

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Title: Business Insider forecast of primary elections
Post by: MaterDominici on February 19, 2016, 11:28:00 PM
That's interesting, but most states are not winner-take-all, so the video's usefulness is limited.
Title: Business Insider forecast of primary elections
Post by: MaterDominici on February 20, 2016, 12:28:49 AM
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Business Weekly has a video predicting Cruz will win the Texas primary but it won't be enough to carry his campaign past Trump's.


The numbers were interesting but to grab an entire state on Super Tuesday, you'd have to have at least 50% and many of the states don't even have winner-take-all as a possibility.

I do find it interesting to watch these things play out. If the three lower guys drop out, you have anywhere from 15 to as much as 30% of the votes up for grabs. If they stay in and spread the delegate count out more, than it could get really hairy if no one reaches 50%. I don't think that will happen, but the point is that the process is way more complicated than this video portrays.