Author Topic: Big Romney win predicted  (Read 3198 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Big Romney win predicted
« on: August 23, 2012, 10:10:56 PM »
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  • http://www.theblaze.com/stories/electoral-college-model-predicts-romney-will-win-big-in-2012-and-its-been-right-since-1980/

    University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry have quite a set of bragging rights up their sleeve – namely, they’ve devised a mathematical model of the Electoral College that has predicted every Presidential race correctly since Ronald Reagan won the Presidency in 1980.

    And despite recent polls showing the presidential race deadlocked both nationally and in key swing states, Bickers and Berry‘s model shows a race that isn’t even close. According to them, not only will Mitt Romney win, but he will win big, taking 320 Electoral Votes to President Obama’s 218 – a result almost as decisive as President Obama’s win against Senator John McCain in 2008.


    Berry and Bicker's prediction, generated by 270towin
    The Huffington Post explains how the model works:

    To predict the race’s outcome, the model uses economic indicators from all 50 states and it shows 320 electoral votes for Romney and 218 for Obama, according to The Associated Press. The model also suggests that Romney will win every state currently considered a swing state which includes Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado.[...]
    Berry cautions that just because the model has worked in the past, doesn’t mean it will work this time. “As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” Berry said in a statement. Some of those factors include the timeframe of the current economic data used in the study (the data used was taken five months before the November election, but Berry and Bickers plan to update it with more current data come September) as well as tight races. States that are very close to a 50-50 split, the authors warn, can fall in an unexpected direction.
    Even given the caveats near the end, this is encouraging news for supporters of Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, given that it shows a race where the raw economic data appears to favor a Republican win. Granted, the election is still months away, and given that Berry and Bickers plan to update their model later, this forecast could change.

    However, if things stay as they are economically, President Obama could be in for a rout come November.
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    Offline Matthew

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #1 on: August 23, 2012, 10:15:42 PM »
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  • This model is either right or wrong, but I'm sure it's realistic.

    In other words, this model must have good reason for showing California, Illinois, etc. as voting for Obama even when it's grossly unpopular to do so.

    Do you live in one of these states? Why not move?

    Illinois, for example, is the armpit of the nation. And that is the polite "body part".

    Illinois gave us Obama. It is a heavily democratic welfare state with a 5% state income tax.

    Let's just say Illinois is very centrally located...
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    Offline Loriann

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #2 on: August 23, 2012, 10:39:07 PM »
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  • Illinois is a welfare state.  We will be leaving here when my daughter leaves for college, but our family is here.  We tried to tell the world about Obama--and were called racist.  The welfare state is alive and those who are takers vote democrat to protect their freebies.  It is sad--my public aid people live much better than the working class folks...Regan was the last Republican to win in Illinois.  

    As for taxes, Matthew, i pay 12,000 a year to a school district I do not use,
    7 3/4% sales tax on all purchases, and utility taxes at 3%.  
    I am not alone, for the father is with me.

    Offline LaramieHirsch

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #3 on: August 25, 2012, 11:05:57 AM »
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  • "Big Romney win predicted"  ... Who cares.

    Either way, a liberal will be president again.

    Romney is only getting to be president now because it's his turn.  The Republican Party chose Romney for me to be the next candidate.  The GOP can have him.  

    I'm not voting anymore.  It's all rigged more than any of us can know.  To hell with their games.
    .........................

    Before some audiences not even the possession of the exactest knowledge will make it easy for what we say to produce conviction. For argument based on knowledge implies instruction, and there are people whom one cannot instruct.  - Aristotle

    Offline roscoe

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #4 on: August 25, 2012, 12:48:56 PM »
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  • Obomba is more dangerous than Romney because he plays the race card at every opportunity. Otherwise there is no difference between the 2. Romney is going to take a dive just like Sonny Liston or Mc Cain or Dole. I hope I am wrong.
    There Is No Such Thing As 'Sede Vacantism'...
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    Offline Croix de Fer

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #5 on: August 25, 2012, 09:08:10 PM »
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  • The democrat vs republican paradigm is fake. No matter who wins, the SAME cabal wins; but I do agree Obomba is able to use the race card more against the sleepwalkers.
    Blessed be the Lord my God, who teacheth my hands to fight, and my fingers to war. ~ Psalms 143:1 (Douay-Rheims)

    Offline Roman55

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #6 on: August 26, 2012, 11:54:43 AM »
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  • Quote from: roscoe
    Obomba is more dangerous than Romney because he plays the race card at every opportunity. Otherwise there is no difference between the 2. Romney is going to take a dive just like Sonny Liston or Mc Cain or Dole. I hope I am wrong.


    Not to be nasty, but I hope you are wrong too.....the delay to the "inevitable" may cause the course to change for the Glory of God.  

    Offline CathMomof7

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #7 on: August 26, 2012, 10:53:52 PM »
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  • Nope.  PA will be blue, almost certainly.

    I think this is the GOP's wishful thinking.  They really want to believe if we just focus on the "fiscal" conservative policies then all will be well.

    The GOP is an abomination.  Period.  So are the Democrats.  

    It's all rigged anyway.  You will get whatever President they want you to have.  And there is nothing you can do about it.  

    Vote, if it makes you feel better.  It's doesn't matter anymore anyway.

    The game is all about to be up...


    Offline Telesphorus

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #8 on: August 26, 2012, 11:05:20 PM »
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  • Quote from: CathMomof7
    Nope.  PA will be blue, almost certainly.

    I think this is the GOP's wishful thinking.


    The demographic make-up of the country has been fundamentally altered.  

    The media has a stake in trying to make it look like Romney has a good chance of winning.  I don't think they want the Republican sheep to realize they're on a track to almost never win future elections.  Republican voters need to think they at least have a chance of winning, and that the victory of a Republican candidate will make some marginal difference in future policies.


    Offline Vandaler

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #9 on: August 27, 2012, 11:51:47 AM »
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  • As usual, everyone is missing the obvious.

    270towin favors Obama to win, not Romney.

    Offline Belloc

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #10 on: August 27, 2012, 02:54:58 PM »
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  • Quote from: LaramieHirsch
    "Big Romney win predicted"  ... Who cares.

    Either way, a liberal will be president again.

    Romney is only getting to be president now because it's his turn.  The Republican Party chose Romney for me to be the next candidate.  The GOP can have him.  

    I'm not voting anymore.  It's all rigged more than any of us can know.  To hell with their games.


    true, Jim Condit had some good words on that this weekend
    Proud "European American" and prouder, still, Catholic


    Offline parentsfortruth

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #11 on: September 10, 2012, 05:00:50 PM »
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  • I wonder if people remember that Romney is a member of the Mormon religion which is Satanic, and entirely un-christian.

    We have a choice between a Luciferian or a Muslim.

    Pray for what? To get what we deserve?

    Okay. I can do that.

    Hasten these days, Lord. The sooner things hit the bottom, the sooner we'll be able to see the renewal of the Church.
    Matthew 5:37

    But let your speech be yea, yea: no, no: and that which is over and above these, is of evil.

    My Avatar is Fr. Hector Bolduc. He was a faithful parish priest in De Pere, WI,

    Offline Roman55

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #12 on: September 10, 2012, 07:08:15 PM »
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  • Quote from: parentsfortruth

    Hasten these days, Lord. The sooner things hit the bottom, the sooner we'll be able to see the renewal of the Church.


     :pray: :pray: :pray:

    Offline Roman55

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #13 on: September 10, 2012, 07:11:06 PM »
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  • Quote from: Belloc
    Quote from: LaramieHirsch
    "Big Romney win predicted"  ... Who cares.

    Either way, a liberal will be president again.

    Romney is only getting to be president now because it's his turn.  The Republican Party chose Romney for me to be the next candidate.  The GOP can have him.  

    I'm not voting anymore.  It's all rigged more than any of us can know.  To hell with their games.


    true, Jim Condit had some good words on that this weekend


    I still like the one remark Johnson made in the debates: something like: "My neighbors dog has created more shovel ready jobs in two days than...." I don't know the rest...I'll add my own: "than Big Eared galoot has created in 36 Months"

    Offline roscoe

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    Big Romney win predicted
    « Reply #14 on: September 10, 2012, 07:32:01 PM »
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  • Quote from: parentsfortruth
    I wonder if people remember that Romney is a member of the Mormon religion which is Satanic, and entirely un-christian.

    We have a choice between a Luciferian or a Muslim.

    Pray for what? To get what we deserve?

    Okay. I can do that.

    Hasten these days, Lord. The sooner things hit the bottom, the sooner we'll be able to see the renewal of the Church.


    Obomba believes that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. I don't know any Muslims who believe that.
    There Is No Such Thing As 'Sede Vacantism'...
    nor is there such thing as a 'Feeneyite' or 'Feeneyism'

     

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