A gathering number of new influenza strains in the past five years has escalated the likelihood of a major influenza pandemic on the scale of the deadly Spanish flu, researchers say.
UNSW researchers in the school of public health are calling for better collaboration between countries and first responder agencies in the event of a flu pandemic.

Their study published in the Archives of Public Health identified 19 separate influenza strains that have emerged in humans during the past century, including seven in the past five years alone.
Raina MacIntyre, director of the UNSW's Integrated Systems for Epidemic Response, said the unprecedented rise in new strains appeared to be a true increase and not just a matter of more cases being detected.

"The question is, why?" Professor MacIntyre said.
"Some of the reasons involve things like climate change and its impact on pathogens, changes like urbanisation, but none of these things have increased at the rate the virus is increasing so there's something else going on."

The Spanish flu, which killed 50 million people in 1918-19, was followed by a 40-year hiatus during which no new flu strains emerged, and then a 10-year gap from the one after that to the next.
But the emergence of strains has gathered pace in the past 15 years.
Professor MacIntyre said a repeat of the Spanish flu was "very possible" and countries and sectors such as health, agriculture, defence and emergency services needed to collaborate better on how to respond in such an event.
"We are somewhat prepared, but when pandemics occur there are almost always unanticipated scenarios," she said.
"When health systems become stressed and unable to cope with the sick, that is when we are truly tested."

Influenza outbreaks

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[th]Flu type[/th]
[th]Year[/th]
[th]Place[/th]
[th]Cases[/th]
[th]Deaths[/th]

H5N6
2014
China (Changsha, Hunan)
15
9

H10N8
2013
China (Nanchang, Jiangsu)
3
2

H6N1
2013
Taiwan
2
No reported deaths

H7N9
2013
China (Shanghai)
791
314

H1N2v
2012
US (Minnesota)
8
No reported deaths

H1N1v
2011
US (Winconsin)
20
No reported deaths

H3N2v
2011
US (Indiana)
372
1

H10N7
2010
Australia
2
No reported deaths

H1N1
2009
Mexico; Canada; US
> 24% pop
0.02% of cases result in death

H7N3
2004
British Columbia, Canada
19
No reported deaths

H7N2
2003
US (Westchester)
16
No reported deaths

H9N2
1999
Hong Kong
28
No reported deaths

H5N1
1997
Hong Kong
850
449

H7N7
1979
US (Boston)
94
1

H1N1 Seasonal flu
1977
China (Tianjin)
3 to 5 million
250,000 to 300,000

H3N2
1968
Hong Kong
No global estimates
No global estimates

H2N2
Asia flu
1957
China (Guizhou)
No global estimates
1.1m

H1N1 Spanish flu
1918
North America, Europe & Africa
500 million
50 million


Source: BioMed Central; Chau Bui; WHO

Influenza strains that have developed in recent years have been transmissible only from birds to humans and not between people, and fatalities have been rare.

But study co-author Chau Bui said the large number of viruses circulating among birds in recent years increased the likelihood that one would mutate and become transmissible between humans.

The risks could be mitigated by banning the sale of live birds in wet markets in Asia, thereby reducing the spread of viruses between birds, and controlling the purchase of live or freshly slaughtered poultry in wet markets to stop the public coming into contact with the bodily fluids of infected poultry, she said.

Special Interest Group for Influenza chair Alan Hampson, who was not part of the study, said there needed to be more research into the genetics of influenza viruses because if they were able to bind to human receptors, or survive in the air, then person-to-person transmission would become more likely.

"These viruses are reinventing themselves all the time," Dr Hampson said.

"Most people think it's highly probable that we will have influenza pandemics in the future and it may come from a source that's being looked at under the World Health Organisation surveillance program or it may be like the one in 2009 that came out of left field and took us all by surprise."

Meanwhile, a study by the US Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has found that flu vaccinations significantly reduce a child's chances of dying from influenza.

Using data from 2010 to 2014, the researchers found only one in four children who died had been vaccinated.

It reads like a sales pitch typical of these mainstream newspapers!
If one in four children have been vaccinated, what does that say for the vaccinations?