Kevin over at Cryptogon.com wrote a VERY important post today. He puts some of this in perspective, and shows how serious this could be for the rest of the world.

Bottom line: This is no Katrina, Haiti, or Indonesia. We're talking about the 3rd largest economy in the world getting hit with an epic disaster that affects pretty much the whole country. The USA is much more spread out -- we have more land. This Japan disaster is the equivalent of a mega-hurricane, asteroid, or nuclear attack wiping out our East Coast or something.


Implications of Japanese Earthquake
March 14th, 2011

J writes:

    Kevin,

    Would you comment on what the situation in Japan means for the rest of the world.

I have been trying to get my head around what has happened, and what is still happening, but I’m not able to do it. Millions of Japanese are without water, food and electricity. Some of the largest Japanese corporations are shut down. Some areas of Japan are experiencing rolling blackouts due to the loss of electricity production from several nuclear power plants, two of which may be melting down. Ten thousand people may be dead in Miyagi Prefecture alone.

The bullet points that demonstrate how extremely serious this is could go on and on.

But something dawned on me as I was looking at the situation today:

I can’t even begin to consider what the global implications of this will be. Japan is the third largest economy in the world. Where do we even start when considering the international implications?

What I want to start to do, with your help, even through the emergency situation is ongoing, is to try to start thinking about what the international implications of this disaster are going be. Pick any area you like (economic, political, military, food, energy) and feel free to take a stab at it. I think we would all appreciate links to good information, but since this is so huge, I’m honestly not sure anyone is really going to be able to “see through” this with any level of accuracy.

Initial ideas: Commodities like iron ore, copper and lumber seem like no brainers to watch. But how is the electricity, lost from the down nuclear power plants, going to be replaced? Coal and natural gas?

Japan was already dangerously reliant on food imports before the disaster. How much farmland has been washed over by (salty) sea water that probably picked up unknown amounts of industrial pollutants as the tsunami moved inland? As Japan rebuilds, is inflation everywhere else going to accelerate?

Questions, questions.

Personally, the electricity generation question is the one I’m most curious about. How does Japan keep-the-lights-on, so to speak, going forward?

—Update—

Forbes writes:

With 11 nuclear reactors out of action in the wake of the quake and rolling blackouts going into effect in the Kanto region, disruption to power supplies is a major wild card in the near and medium term.

Japanese trading houses and the government have been working to secure fuel for utilities’ spare generators to make up for the shortfall; there were reports over the weekend that Russia may boost shipments of liquefied natural gas and coal.

Based partly on California’s experience with rolling power cuts in 2003, during which manufacturers were largely able to cope with the downtime, Nomura estimates that if the power cuts extend through April, the negative impact will amount to 0.29% of GDP.

The Japanese government set a goal last year of increasing the share of zero-emission power sources from 34% to 70% by 2030, with nuclear power a key contributor: Plans call for constructing 14 new reactors nationwide in the next 20 years. Given the traumatic events involving Tepco’s Fukushima nuclear reactors, there’s a good chance that the public will demand a different approach–and not only in Japan.

Expect Japan to build more power plants fueled by liquefied natural gas. Japan is already the world’s largest importer of LNG; it’s likely to put upward pressure on prices in years to come.