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Author Topic: Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan  (Read 7436 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
« on: March 11, 2011, 05:30:00 PM »
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  • We extend our condolences, prayers and sympathies to the people of Japan. This is an absolutely heart rending tragedy with exorbitant numbers.  88,000 people are missing in Japan according to Kyodo News Agency.  While the death toll remains low right now, it seems likely to spiral much higher.  The human scale of the tragedy is enormous.  Post the 8.9 Richter earthquake that struck Japan, Tsunami warnings have been issued for at least 20 countries and many Pacific islands.  Given the log scale, this is the 5th to 7th largest earthquake ever recorded in the world and the largest in Japan's modern history.  More than 50 aftershocks have been felt across Japan.  Most of these aftershocks have a bigger magnitude than the main quake felt in Tokyo!

    Nuclear Emergency

    The key concern is now focussed on the red alert associated with the nuclear emergency declared in Japan.  In particular, this is to do with the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.  Pressure at the nuclear plant may have risen to 2.1 times its designed capacity, Japan's trade ministry has just announced.  Temperatures and pressure at the "Number 1" nuclear reactor have been rising since its cooling system was knocked out by the earthquake, raising concerns about a possible radiation leak.  Japan has also just announced that it may have to release radioactive vapour from the nuclear reactor into the atmosphere.  The radiation level inside one of the reactors at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant is 1,000 times higher than normal according to a safety panel's citation by Kyodo news agency.  If the outage in the cooling system persists, radiation would leak out into the environment and some indications are this may already be taking place.  As a worst case, the persistence of this problem could cause the reactor's meltdown.  The Japan nuclear 'station blackout' has the potential to go catastrophic as the authorities struggle to 'cool down' the nuclear facility before reactions spiral out of control.

    Pacific Ring of Fire

    About 90% of the world's earthquakes and 80% of the world's largest earthquakes occur along the Ring of Fire.  Japan's quake suggests the 'Ring of Fire' arc of volcanoes & trenches encircling the Pacific basin have become even more active than usual.  Sadly, this could mean more quakes, volcanoes and Tsunamis may follow -- not just in Japan -- but also other countries and islands that frame the Pacific basin.

    1 in 150 Years Event

    Japan's 8.9 Richter earthquake is the biggest in 140 years, surpassing 1923's Great Kanto 7.9 Richter quake which killed 140,000.  Post the devastating earthquake and Tsunami in Japan, we have spent most of the day at our headquarters in London, monitoring developments hour-by-hour via friends, partners and colleagues in Japan as well as government officials and NGOs in related countries and at the United Nations.
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    Offline Matthew

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #1 on: March 11, 2011, 05:31:28 PM »
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  •  Note: This post has several updates. Scroll to the bottom for the latest.

    Original post: Ominous flash from Kyodo Wire:

    The operator of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant reported an abnormality Friday following a powerful earthquake which hit a wide area in northeastern Japan including Fukushima Prefecture, the industry ministry said.

    The system to cool reactor cores in case of emergency stopped at the No. 1 and No. 2 reactors of the plant operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co., it said.

    There are reports that the Japanese PM will declare a nuclear emergency.

    Update: There's no evidence of any radioactive leakage, but officials have confirmed that the cooling process for the nuclear plant has not yet gone according to plan.

    Update 2: Japan has declared a nuclear emergency.

    Update 3: 2000 residents near the Fukushima Nuclear Plant have been urged to evacuate.

    Update 4: According to reports, Japanese jets have been ordered to fly over the Fukushima Nuclear plant

    Update 5: According to Reuters, a Dam has broken in the same region as the at-risk nuclear power plant.

    Update 6: The owner of the plant, TEPCO, says the reactor pressure is rising, and there are risks of a radiation leak, according to Reuters.

    Update 7: Now the trade minister says a leak is possible.

    Update 8: Word is, Japanese authorities will release a small amount of radioactive vapor into the air to ease pressure.

    Update 9: Japan just expanded the evacuation range from 3 KM to 9 KM, says Reuters.

    Update: 4:29 PM ET: Anti-nuclear expert Kevin Kamp explains the nightmare scenario in Fukushma, via Forbes and the Institute for Public Accuracy:

    “The electrical grid is down. The emergency diesel generators have been damaged. The multi-reactor Fukushima atomic power plant is now relying on battery power, which will only last around eight hours. The danger is, the very thermally hot reactor cores at the plant must be continuously cooled for 24 to 48 hours. Without any electricity, the pumps won’t be able to pump water through the hot reactor cores to cool them. Once electricity is lost, the irradiated nuclear fuel could begin to melt down. If the containment systems fail, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur.

    “In addition to the reactor cores, the storage pool for highly radioactive irradiated nuclear fuel is also at risk. The pool cooling water must be continuously circulated. Without circulation, the still thermally hot irradiated nuclear fuel in the storage pools will begin to boil off the cooling water. Within a day or two, the pool’s water could completely boil away. Without cooling water, the irradiated nuclear fuel could spontaneously combust in an exothermic reaction. Since the storage pools are not located within containment, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur. Up to 100 percent of the volatile radioactive Cesium-137 content of the pools could go up in flames and smoke, to blow downwind over large distances. Given the large quantity of irradiated nuclear fuel in the pool, the radioactivity release could be worse than the Chernobyl nuclear reactor catastrophe of 25 years ago.”

    Meanwhile, Kyodo is reporting that local radiation levels are 8 times more than normal.

    Update 4:43 PM: Now according to Kyodo, radiation is measured at 1000x normal.

    Update 5:05: The entire world is now watching the Fukushima plant. Here's a llink to a satellite image of the plant, just to get some more perspective on where this is.

     Fukushima:

    Update 5:33: Both reactors at the plant have been damaged, and officials say they have "lost control" of the pressure, according to Reuters.
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    Offline Jehanne

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #2 on: March 11, 2011, 07:17:51 PM »
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  • This is really, really scary, especially for those of you on the West Coast, as well as the rest of us.  If the thing has a meltdown, there will be a huge explosion and a huge radioactive cloud.  Sounds inevitable at this point.

    Offline PartyIsOver221

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #3 on: March 12, 2011, 06:29:45 AM »
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  • Yup, looks like it already exploded. May God have mercy on all of them over there, and all of us that could be affected by it.

     :incense:

    Offline Raoul76

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #4 on: March 12, 2011, 09:28:36 AM »
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  • Jehanne, how would this affect the West Coast?  I hope you have a good explanation because you cost me about five minute of intense fear.

    Sometimes trad Catholics come off like scaremongers.  
    There was an explosion in a reactor, but no meltdown so far...
    Readers: Please IGNORE all my postings here. I was a recent convert and fell into errors, even heresy for which hopefully my ignorance excuses. These include rejecting the "rhythm method," rejecting the idea of "implicit faith," and being brieflfy quasi-Jansenist. I also posted occasions of sins and links to occasions of sin, not understanding the concept much at the time, so do not follow my links.


    Offline Jehanne

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #5 on: March 12, 2011, 09:31:31 AM »
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  • If a large amount of radiation is released into the atmosphere, the prevailing winds will carry it eastward.

    Offline Raoul76

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #6 on: March 12, 2011, 09:38:42 AM »
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  • Do you have any proof that the radiation would be carried THAT far eastward?  How far did the radiation from Chernobyl extend?

    Or just admit you're scaremongering.

    Okay, the Chernobyl radiation made it to Western Europe, as I'm reading here, but most likely in minute amounts.  It says Chernobyl released far less radiation than the nuclear testing done in the 50's and 60's... Even if a bunch of plants explode in Japan, I don't think this poses a risk for California.  But California will probably have its own quake and this is an eerie and bloodcurdling foreshadowing.
    Readers: Please IGNORE all my postings here. I was a recent convert and fell into errors, even heresy for which hopefully my ignorance excuses. These include rejecting the "rhythm method," rejecting the idea of "implicit faith," and being brieflfy quasi-Jansenist. I also posted occasions of sins and links to occasions of sin, not understanding the concept much at the time, so do not follow my links.

    Offline Raoul76

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #7 on: March 12, 2011, 09:46:11 AM »
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  • Hey, wait a second, why do you say eastward?  The Chernobyl radiation went to the west.
    Readers: Please IGNORE all my postings here. I was a recent convert and fell into errors, even heresy for which hopefully my ignorance excuses. These include rejecting the "rhythm method," rejecting the idea of "implicit faith," and being brieflfy quasi-Jansenist. I also posted occasions of sins and links to occasions of sin, not understanding the concept much at the time, so do not follow my links.


    Offline Jehanne

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #8 on: March 12, 2011, 09:49:04 AM »
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  • Quote from: Raoul76
    Hey, wait a second, why do you say eastward?  The Chernobyl radiation went to the west.


    The prevailing winds blow from west to east.  The Chernobyl  plant released so much radiation that alarms went off all throughout Europe, so much so that children were given emergency doses of iodine.

    Offline Raoul76

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #9 on: March 12, 2011, 09:55:26 AM »
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  • Come on, that is hardly a state of emergency in Europe...

    How far is Germany and France from the Ukraine, and how far is California from Japan?  I'm guessing that in the latter case, we are much farther away.

    Answer: It is 5,478 miles from Tokyo to Los Angeles, and 1256 miles from Kiev, Ukraine to Paris, which was hardly said to be affected by Chernobyl, Jehanne.  Los Angeles is about four and a half times farther away from this potential blast than Paris was from Chernobyl...  Please think carefully before releasing inflammatory and terrifying statements, others are affected.
    Readers: Please IGNORE all my postings here. I was a recent convert and fell into errors, even heresy for which hopefully my ignorance excuses. These include rejecting the "rhythm method," rejecting the idea of "implicit faith," and being brieflfy quasi-Jansenist. I also posted occasions of sins and links to occasions of sin, not understanding the concept much at the time, so do not follow my links.

    Offline Jehanne

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #10 on: March 12, 2011, 10:00:10 AM »
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  • I never claimed "a state of emergency..."  What I did claim is that it was "really, really scary," and it is scary to take high dosages of radiation, whether from the atmosphere or at the doctor's office.  Over time, it is a cuмulative effect, which means that even though the events in Japan will almost certainly not kill you, you may find yourself with terminal cancer in 15 to 20 years.  That's what is scary.


    Offline Raoul76

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #11 on: March 12, 2011, 10:03:48 AM »
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  • To say that people may end up with cancer because of this is the same as saying they may end up with cancer because of their cell phones or microwaves.  Do you know a lot of Parisians who are growing tumors because of aftereffects of Chernobyl, or who spend their days worrying about such?  Because they are far closer to that blast than we are to any Japanese blast.
    Readers: Please IGNORE all my postings here. I was a recent convert and fell into errors, even heresy for which hopefully my ignorance excuses. These include rejecting the "rhythm method," rejecting the idea of "implicit faith," and being brieflfy quasi-Jansenist. I also posted occasions of sins and links to occasions of sin, not understanding the concept much at the time, so do not follow my links.

    Offline Jehanne

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #12 on: March 12, 2011, 10:09:51 AM »
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  • This may end-up being worse than Chernobyl.  Without a doubt, those individuals who were near Three-Mile Island did experience serious health problems.  And, remember, with Chernobyl, the prevailing winds brought the radiation eastward, that is, away from Paris and the rest of Europe.

    Offline Vladimir

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #13 on: March 12, 2011, 11:11:17 AM »
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  • Raoul,

    I'd just get out of the OC as quickly as possible no matter what. I wouldn't want to be on the coast if a tsunami hit. Also imagine if for whatever reason the water was cut off from SoCal!!



    Offline Jehanne

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    Red Alert: Nuclear emergency in Japan
    « Reply #14 on: March 12, 2011, 11:35:37 AM »
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  • Quote from: Vladimir
    Raoul,

    I'd just get out of the OC as quickly as possible no matter what. I wouldn't want to be on the coast if a tsunami hit. Also imagine if for whatever reason the water was cut off from SoCal!!


    Ha, ha...no one, me included, was ever claiming that.  In any case, I hope that you are right, and that I was "overreacting" to a nuclear reactor having a meltdown.  I used to work for an utility company that had (and still has) a nuclear reactor, and I remember going to it on occasion.  We had to wear devices around our necks to warn us if we were taking too much radiation.  It is, after all, something that is colorless and odorless.