Partners...

For a couple of days now...the weather models have been pointing toward a possible cold weather outbreak next week across much of the country, this includes South Central Texas.  Everything has to be just right to get a major arctic blast into our area, and the models are showing the ingredients coming together.

This possible cold outbreak starts with a strong cold front pushing through the area sometime on Monday of next week.  Arctic air over Canada will then continue to surge south into the southern plains through Tuesday and Wednesday of next week...possibly lasting even longer toward the end of next week.  The forecast weather pattern points toward the coldest air of the season with hard freezes possible next week.  Of interest is how the models keep this arctic air over the plains for the entire week, with reinforcing shots of cold air coming from western Canada, right down the lee side of the Rockies...into Texas.  We could be looking at a lengthy cold outbreak with possible record low temperatures...and record low maximum temperatures.  Record lows across South Central Texas next week are generally in the low to mid teens.  If the currently forecast pattern stays true...some records could be broken.

With that said...many things can happen between now and next week.  Models could change, the cold air heads a bit further east, etc.  While it is way to early to tell you particulars of exactly how cold or how long of outbreak...I would hope you would use this email as a true "heads up"  and help with your situational awareness.  Please start following the forecast very closely and logging onto the websites frequently (www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx) .

If in fact this is the making of a true arctic blast, history has shown us that the models will underestimate the strength of the cold air.  If you have winter emergency action plans, now is the time to get them out and start to review them in preparation of possible activation.  More to come in the following days.  From my experience in forecasting arctic blasts back in the days when I was down at Brownsville, we need to watch this very, very closely.

This the first of many emails I plan on sending out over the next several days...so stay tuned and dont hesitate to ask any questions.

Paul Yura
National Weather Service Austin-San Antonio TX

I'm hoping I can find some more before then, because you can't exactly buy those things year-round.

I hope this whole arctic blast thing "doesn't work out" and I have to wait till sometime in the far future to get to experience a blast like they describe!

Matthew