Author Topic: Collapse (US Stock Market) (Read 519 times)

Matthew · « **on:** January 23, 2008, 08:34:29 AM »

Collapse.

From the Latin cuм "with" and lapsus "fall"

"With a fall" -- very good description of what's happening on Wall Street today.

Matthew

Matthew · « **Reply #1 on:** January 23, 2008, 08:40:23 AM »

Here is a TWO YEAR chart -- we're talking about 2 years' worth of gains being wiped out -- and the "experts" talk about the historical average of 8% a year... Ha!

It's a logical fallacy to say that what happened in the past will happen in the future. Anyone with common sense knows that times change, and the piper must ALWAYS be paid. What goes up must come down.

Note the red arrow -- that's where we are right now.

Vandaler · « **Reply #2 on:** January 23, 2008, 10:49:15 AM »

Quote from: ChantCd

It's a logical fallacy to say that what happened in the past will happen in the future. Anyone with common sense knows that times change, and the piper must ALWAYS be paid. What goes up must come down.

You know by now I like this stuff so here goes as expected.

It's indeed a logical fallacy that... what happened in the past will happen in the future. That said, while it's not a valid argument, it does not mean that it will not be so.

You make the equal error of concluding that because the reasoning is fallacious, then the contrary must be true. Your argument that... what happened in the past will not happen in the future. is equally fallacious in logical terms.

It's no biggy, it's just that these matters of reasoning turn me on.

Matthew · « **Reply #3 on:** January 23, 2008, 10:53:41 AM »

To be more clear...

What has happened in the past will not necessarily happen in the future. That is what I meant.

The evidence I presented (the piper must be paid eventually, etc.) suggests that this is one of those times where the future looks nothing like the past. There is plenty of evidence to suggest that a "black swan" (or freak) event will happen -- another Great Depression, a dollar collapse, etc.

My argument is that since so many things are approaching "critical mass" or a "perfect storm" status, that the Law of Inertia needs to be discounted in this particular case.

Thank you for helping me to clear this up.

Matthew

Vandaler · « **Reply #4 on:** January 23, 2008, 10:57:06 AM »

There is indeed no questions that we are now in a serious correction.