“It is not allowed to affirm that Confucius was saved. Christians, when interrogated, must answer that those who die as infidels are damned”.
Pope St. Pius X put this teaching exactly the way it needed to be put. Note that he did not say that Confucius was definitely in hell. He said that it is not allowed to
affirm that he was saved, which is really quite natural when you think about it. There is no authority upon which we could declare that Confucius is in heaven, since the only thing we know about the state of his soul is that he was formally outside the Church. It would be a strange thing indeed for a Christian to just unilaterally decree that Confucius is among the ranks of the just. There is no basis for such an affirmation.
We are permitted to hope for it, though. Perhaps God extended His grace to Confucius by a special act of mercy which He has declined to reveal to us and has never covenanted with us. It is not out of the realm of possibility. However, the second sentence in Pius' reply remains in effect. Christians,
when interrogated, must answer that those who die as infidels are damned. This is a truism: infidels are damned
eo ipso. This is not only an analytical necessity, but it also follows from everything that has been revealed to us concerning original sin. The only question that remains is whether Confucius really was an infidel properly so called, or if he was included in the Church in some nebulous, mystical sense due to his great love of natural virtue. There is no way to settle this question within the confines of time. It will remain unanswerable until the End, when all things are made known. Therefore Pius' answer is the right one.
I personally believe that Confucius, Seneca, Aristotle, and the other virtuous pagans, will repose eternally in a limbo where they suffer no pains of sense. The souls of unbaptized infants are in a similar place. I believe they are really quite happy there, since they will never fully understand what they are missing. The Beatific Vision is not something we can really desire with our own natural faculties. The virtuous pagans have already gotten the highest reward they were capable of imagining for themselves -- the eternal contemplation of natural truth.