Quote from: Neil Obstat (Feb 15, 2017, 12:39 am)

The dynamics of a dam like  this [Oroville] are complicated and ever changing since water runoff from the mountains above delivers an unchangeable flow of water into the [artificial] lake (when it rains, the water comes pouring in at constantly changing rates), and the only way for water to get out is at the dam [....]

Sooo, what's the latest on the  disaster  danger of catastrophic collapse of the Oroville Dam into the Feather River?

1 storm already passed thro' yesterday (morning?).

And now, as of 6--nearly 7 p.m. Calif. Time (i.e., PST), U.S. National Weather Service radar

• for 4--6:30 p.m. PST shows a fascinating new storm, spanning most of California, moving (over an admittedly short sample of time today) as if it came from the southwest, with some especially fascinating hints of internal rotation from Points Conception & Arguello (Santa Barbara Co.) all the way north to inland of Point Mendocino (Humboldt? Co.).  Maybe that's the storm's atmospheric physical reaction to apparently sloshing to a halt on the western slope(s) of the Sierra Nevada?
  
  How long does it take, e.g., 90--95% of storm-water dumped in the Sacramento Valley watershed to reach the entry to the artificial lake?   24 hours?  48 hours?  72 hours?   Or what?   I am assuming that by now, there are reasonably accurate models for computer simulations that can provide answers that have some practical value for public safety.  Altho' perhaps their practical value is overwhelmed by questions about the physical integrity of the dam.
  
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  Note *: NWS "Pacific Southwest Sector". <https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/pacsouthwest_lite_loop.php>.

Sooo, what's the latest on the disaster danger of catastrophic collapse of the Oroville Dam into the Feather River?

They've lifted the evacuation order making it a "voluntary evacuation."

They wouldn't do that if the dam were in danger of failing. The liability would be astronomical.

They're repairing the compromised emergency spillway top portion as quickly as possible, which means this work they should have done 10 years ago is costing about 3 or 4 times what it should cost if done in a timely manner. Plus, there has been damage done which needs to be repaired, and this damage could have been prevented by doing repair work when it first became necessary.  

Trees and shrubs are being uprooted on the emergency spillway downslope in order to prevent them from being washed down the hill, which would make them clog the exit channel at the base of the dam.  That channel needs to be kept clear to allow the water running the turbines to flow freely, otherwise the hydroelectric plant would have to be shut down and water could not be allowed to exit quickly there, meaning the lake above would be able to rise too fast, which risks the dam overflowing. That would be really bad news.

Removal of the trees and shrubs was abandoned years ago because the hyper-liberal environ-mentalists didn't like the idea of trading a tree-planted hillside for one covered with concrete. Now, it is being done to prepare for the covering of the hillside with concrete!  So the Gerry Brown-nosers have managed to escalate the cost of doing the work they knew they had to do all along. Only now, it is at the risk of losing the dam and killing thousands of people as well as costing far too much.

In fact, if there were TIME to do this properly, they would be able to save a lot of the trees by leaving them in place, by making PLANTER structures around them, so they would be protected from water flowing down the slope when the emergency spillway is employed. That takes extra time, and right now time is something they don't have enough of.  So they could have kept the tree hillside look and protected the hillside with concrete, but by postponing the work they now have to give up the trees.

It's a LOSE-LOSE situation for the liberals, but just watch the news headlines. They'll try to spin this with lib-speak, saying it's all the fault of climate change, that money needed for repairing the dam was being spent to fight anti-Semitism and Trump's ban on illegal alien immigration. And don't forget the delta smelt.

Apparently the politicians who control whether or not to spend money on things like this have decided all too often that there is no political glamour in saying that they spent hundreds of millions of dollars fixing a dam. They would rather say they spent money saving delta smelt or preventing global warming.

There's a power behind that political stupidity, it is not a coincidence, it is happening all over the USA and the world.

Oroville Dam Update as of 2/20



Drone footage