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Author Topic: Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!  (Read 1056 times)

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Offline Matthew

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Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
« on: September 09, 2014, 11:56:53 AM »
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  • “The Awkward Truth” About Large Amount of Scientific Research: It’s a load of BULL!

    September 8th, 2014

    Via: BBC Radio:

    Every day the newspapers carry stories of new scientific findings. There are 15 million scientists worldwide all trying to get their research published. But a disturbing fact appears if you look closely: as time goes by, many scientific findings seem to become less true than we thought. It’s called the “decline effect” – and some findings even dwindle away to zero.

    A highly influential paper by Dr John Ioannidis at Stanford University called “Why most published research findings are false” argues that fewer than half of scientific papers can be believed, and that the hotter a scientific field (with more scientific teams involved), the less likely the research findings are to be true. He even showed that of the 49 most highly cited medical papers, only 34 had been retested and of them 41 per cent had been convincingly shown to be wrong.

    And yet they were still being cited.

    Again and again, researchers are finding the same things, whether it’s with observational studies, or even the “gold standard” Randomised Controlled Studies, whether it’s medicine or economics. Nobody bothers to try to replicate most studies, and when they do try, the majority of findings don’t stack up. The awkward truth is that, taken as a whole, the scientific literature is full of falsehoods.
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    Offline RomanCatholic1953

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #1 on: September 09, 2014, 01:48:28 PM »
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  • It is those with certain beliefs and viewpoints will not be changed even
    when they are shown proof they are wrong. Such as global warming.
    The earth has been heating up and cooling down since the earth
    was created.
    Man and his civilizations have nothing to do with it.
    A blast from a supper volcano in which man cannot do anything
    about except to get away and hide in a bunker is far more lethal
    and deadly than all the so called pollutions of the 19th and the
    20th centuries.
    The real motives is profits and lots of money through
    taxes to promote their pet projects.
    Since they have control of the mass media they will push their
    lies and propaganda to a largely dumb and stupid audience that
    believes in everything they are told and read.
    Proven false studies after false studies are cited as proofs when
    they are just plain rubbish.
    The motive is to make money, your money.


    Offline Iuvenalis

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #2 on: September 09, 2014, 06:14:44 PM »
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  • The decline effect is significant, but dont forget good old fashioned fraud.

    Youd be surprised how many published journal articles end up retracted or discovered fraud.

    It's nearly half from the study I saw.

    Offline Neil Obstat

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #3 on: September 11, 2014, 12:25:25 PM »
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  • .

    The premise is interesting:

    Scientific studies can be proven false.

    Because this implies that scientific studies could be proven true, if they were true.

    However, consider then that scientific studies cannot prove anything at all.

    In fact, it is not the domain of science to PROVE anything at all.  

    Nothing whatsoever can be proved true or false using science, and that is a fact, while scientific propositions and postulates and hypotheses and results of studies are just data points and analyses, but they cannot be proof of anything.

    .
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    Offline PerEvangelicaDicta

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #4 on: September 11, 2014, 12:50:06 PM »
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  • Neil O, I just read this last night on a thread in Metabunk.org

    Quote
       But even in science there is "belief". The following is three basic assumptions of science:

            There are natural causes for things that happen in the world around us.
            Evidence from the natural world can be used to learn about those causes.
            There is consistency in the causes that operate in the natural world.

        Source: http://undsci.berkeley.edu/article/basic_assumptions

        Contrary to what many people think, those three rules can't be proven, but they are the basis of all scientific studies. For example, rule 1 can't be proven unless EVERYTHING is examined and proven, which practically is impossible to do. The same goes for rule 3, which I find to be the most important rule. It basically states that if I test the effect of gravity on 100 identical balls, it will get the same result with ball no. 101. This is again something which can't be proven, unless I measure something on all items which exists. This is important, since science would be impossible without the uniformity of nature. If I say that bulls do not have gold in their horns, I don't have to prove that by cutting off the horn of every single bull in the world to check. I simply take an appropriate sample of horns and check.

        To people who "believe" in science, this is logical. To people who don't, they can question those assumptions, and we can't do much to prove them wrong.

        So, if what the above is what you refer to as our belief system, yes. I believe in that. That is my religion!

        Edit: I like below wording better, including limitations of the scientific assumptions:
        Content from external source


            BASIC ASSUMPTIONS OF SCIENCE

                1. The world is real. The physical universe exists apart from our sensory experiences.
                2. Humans can accurately perceive and understand the physical universe.
                3. Natural processes are sufficient for understanding the natural world.
                4. Nature operates uniformly throughout the universe in space and time.


            BASIC LIMITATIONS OF SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE

                A. Our senses have their own biological limitations. Even technological devices for extending those limitations have their own limits of accuracy and range.

                B. Our mental processing of sensory data is not always reliable. We are influenced by previous experiences, biases, and degrees of attention, all contingent* on circuмstances.

                C. It’s impossible to know if we have considered all possible alternative explanations.

                D. Scientific knowledge is necessarily contingent knowledge (and therefore uncertain). It is not absolute knowledge (certain and eternally true). It is dependent on available evidence, circuмstances, tools and our analysis.

        Source: http://www.indiana.edu/~ensiweb/NOS Over.BasicAssump.html
         



    Offline glaston

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #5 on: September 11, 2014, 01:06:56 PM »
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  • PEER Review!

    Those stooges working for crony big-business sift the fantastic discoveries made by inventors.

    If it threatens their financial grip on energy etc they buy the inventor out, buy the silence of inventor, fabricate a 'previous' logged copyright, Kill him/her.

    Peer review - an historical 'conveyor belt' of outright lies, expounded by obnoxious stooges with bloated egos, who are proved wrong when the next person proves them wrong with the next 'discovery'.

    Offline Neil Obstat

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #6 on: September 11, 2014, 01:27:27 PM »
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  • .

    How can anyone prove that a scientific study is true or false,

    when the scientific study itself cannot prove anything to be true or false?

    Even so, in science class, don't be surprised when the professor
    says that it's time for a quiz.

    Question:  What kind of quiz will it be?  

    Answer:  True and False.

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    Offline claudel

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #7 on: September 12, 2014, 07:09:52 AM »
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  • Quote from: glaston
    Peer review [is] an historical conveyor belt of outright lies.


    I feared that this dreaded day would come whilst praying that it wouldn't. Yet here it is, and there's nothing to do but face it squarely. Of what dread and what day do I write? Nothing less than the day I find myself almost agreeing with glaston.

    The saving grace here is the "almost," in that, as ever so often, by overstating his case glaston transforms a drab falsehood into an all-star Hollywood extravaganza.

    Yes, peer review is a fraud; that much is certain. In practice, however, the committers of the fraud are less interested in perpetrating grandiose deceits against the whole of mankind than in securing their own position, with all that such security entails—that is to say, more often than not, income and prestige, with increases to the latter almost inevitably generating comparable increases to the former.

    The advice that parents used to give their children in the millennia before government and media became canonized sources of information needs reviving: Believe nothing you read and only half of what you see with your own two eyes. Heeders of this maxim still make mistakes left and right, of course—it could hardly be otherwise—but the way to bet is that they will be correct far more often than everyone else.

    My favorite description of what peer review actually is comes from the esteemed researcher Peter Duesberg, a man whose own work has been the frequent object of outright suppression and whose life and livelihood have been jeopardized. Dr. Duesberg, in almost so many words, calls the peer review process the attempt to get the approval of your competitors for a product that may put them out of business. How likely is it that their response will be free of bias or unclouded by self-interest?

    That, I aver, is a question that answers itself.


    Offline PerEvangelicaDicta

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    Almost half of Scientific Studies can be proven false!
    « Reply #8 on: September 12, 2014, 10:39:49 AM »
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  • Quote

    I feared that this dreaded day would come whilst praying that it wouldn't. Yet here it is, and there's nothing to do but face it squarely. Of what dread and what day do I write? Nothing less than the day I find myself almost agreeing with glaston.


    I literally laughed out loud.
    Quote
       Job 3:25
    For the fear which I feared hath come upon me: and that which I was afraid of, hath befallen me.