I don't put it past the government to fake moon landings. I see no reason to consider them honest and trustworthy. So I find that sort of argument plausible.
On the other hand, the argument which I find strongest in favour of the moon landings is the nature of the Cold War. Because I am old enough to remember what it was like, I find it hard to hard to believe that the Soviets wouldn't have gotten hold of the evidence of fraud and exposed it. The "space race" was a big deal and the Soviets had an effective spy system.
I don't have a good answer to that objection. But just because I don't know everything, especially secret deals made in dark rooms, terms of blackmail, and all the machinations of bad guys worldwide, doesn't mean I'm allowed to throw out the laws of Science and Statistics.
If you can't reproduce an experiment, you throw it out. Aberrations from the norm must be dismissed.
Maybe we'll know the answer to your question someday. Perhaps we'll never know. But what we DO know for sure is what I've stated above, about science and statistics.