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In my very unformed, unscholarly opinion, but based mainly on observation, some reading, and logic:
If Covid and suppression of the sacraments is not at least a precursor to a more severe chastisement, I can't imagine what the 'first" chastisement will look like.  This is, to me, a significant chastisement, particularly since it is global and not confined.  Precursors to it were the demonic involvement in extreme climate situations of a character we have not seen before (what were called, even by atheists, apocalyptic conflagrations, floods, tornadoes, violent surf in unprecedented manifestation and repetition). Couple that with disorder in the animal world and in the skies, and these combined "natural" (unnatural) phenomena are signs that the battle between Good and Evil is at least warming up, if it hasn't actually started.

Next phase, from my reading:
Worldwide Illumination of Conscience

followed by:
3-6 months (I forget which) for mankind to Get It Together

followed by:
Period of peace, about 20 years

followed by:
3.5-year reign of Antichrist

followed by:
Second Coming

I do believe that after the period of peace there will be other chastisements, but I don't know if those are supposed to be before or during the reign of Antichrist.  

I do not know what "the tribulation" is.  Someone could inform me.

I don't personally believe in the Warning or Illumination of Conscience part.  I believe that came initially from Garabandal, but I consider Garabandal to be diabolical in origin.  There have been several failed prophesies tied to those visions and visionaries that render them lacking in credibility.