According to theologians post Bellarmine and pre Vatican II, manifest/public heretics depends on the large number of people their heresy is made manifest to. It does not matter if they are ignorant (material) nor willful (formal). See Van Noort Dogmatic Theology, Members of the Church.
2Vermont, I think in the passage you may be thinking of, Van Noort is speaking of Protestants. Van Noort says some hold even Protestant material heretics to be members of the Church, but most others teach that they are not externally united as members.
Similarly, when it is said by Pope Pius XII, that the sin of heresy is such as of its own nature to cause a person to be separated from the Church, since only formal heretics have committed the sin of heresy, it seems clear that the reference is to formal heretics.
As for St. Robert Bellarmine, he said the heretic must at least show himself to "be manifestly obstinate" as was mentioned earlier. Maybe a Council could make a presumption of heresy even for material heresy, but I don't think that laity can.
Here's a study by
Xavier Da Silveira: "As is obvious, we are not discussing the possibility of the Pope being in material heresy. No one denies, that mistakenly or by inadvertence, the Supreme Pontiff can fall into material heresy, as a private person"
Now, as regards what was being discussed earlier, I'm open to the idea as a hypothesis that a Council of Bishops, after warnings, could determine the Pope "to be manifestly obstinate". But what happens if the Council rebukes him, and then the Pope retracts?
So personally - and ironically I'm agreeing with Fr. Kramer here, though I commend Siscoe and Salza for the publication of their book, which has been endorsed by the Society of Saint Pius X, and already proved helpful for many - I don't believe a Pope will ever lose the Faith. The reason for this, although St. Robert and Bp. Gasser at Vatican I, called this only a pious opinion and not absolutely certain, is that Our Lord Jesus indeed prayed that the Faith of St. Peter and his Successors may not fail. Now faith does not fail in someone who falls into heresy but without pertinacity, as was perhaps the case with Pope John XXII, nor does it fail if a man commits ordinary mortal sins, because then only grace is lost, but not faith; but it does fail when he becomes a formal heretic, by committing the mortal sin of heresy, and then not only sanctifying grace, but even the internal virtue of supernatural faith itself is lost.
On the occult heretic thing, it is very unlikely occult heretics lose membership imo. Pope Pius XII said, to be members of the Church, it is necessary to be validly baptized, and to profess the true faith, among other things. So validly baptized professing Catholics are all included in that imo. If a person is an occult heretic but still claims to be Catholic, he remains a member. As for one unjustly excommunicated, I believe St. Robert himself says somewhere, that such a person remains within the Church but by internal bonds. Similarly, Pope Pius XII seems to endorse that opinion when he excludes from Church membership only those excluded by Church authorities for real "grave faults committed", not for mistaken penalties or injustices borne. Anyway, the Pope-heretic thing is broader.
But the prayer of Our Lord Jesus Christ in Luk 22:32 appears to be meant as an efficacious one, just like Our Lord's Prayer for the Unity of His Church in Jn 17. Thus, while the faithful are invited to pray for the same, e.g. that the Church's unity may be strengthened, that the Holy Father may not fail in the faith etc, nevertheless, it doesn't seem that the prayer of Jesus Christ can fail. And therefore, it seems more likely than not, that when corrected and rebuked by the Bishops in Council, the Pope will retract. Therefore, he will remain a Catholic, although one who erred graved, and once his error is corrected in Council, the Church goes on.
Cardinal Billot: "I said: ‘admitted the hypothesis”. But it appears by far more probable that this hypothesis is a mere hypothesis, never reducible to act, in virtue of what St. Luke says (22: 32): “I have prayed for you that your faith not fail, and you, once being converted, confirm your brethren”. That this ought to be understood of Saint Peter and of all his successors, is what the voice of Tradition attests ... "
Relatio of Bp. Gasser at Vatican I: "the opinion of Albert Pighius, which Bellarmine indeed calls pious and probable, was that the Pope, as an individual person or a private teacher, was able to err from a type of ignorance but was never able to fall into heresy or teach heresy. To say nothing of the other points, let me say that this is clear from the very words of Bellarmine, both in the citation made by the reverend speaker and also from Bellarmine himself who, in book 4, chapter VI, pronounces on the opinion of Pighius in the following words: "It can be believed probably and piously that the supreme Pontiff is not only not able to err as Pontiff but that even as a particular person he is not able to be heretical, by pertinaciously believing something contrary to the faith." From this, it appears that the doctrine in the proposed chapter is not that of Albert Pighius or the extreme opinion of any school, but rather that it is one and the same which Bellarmine teaches in the place cited by the reverend speaker and which Bellarmine adduces in the fourth place and calls most certain and assured, or rather, correcting himself, the most common and certain opinion". Anyway, it's only a Council of Bishops, after warning the Pope, that can determine pertinacity or the lack thereof for sure imo. We can determine an error.