Even St. Robert Bellarmine struggled somewhat over when heresy becomes sufficiently "manifest" to effect deposition. Manifest, moreover is an inherently subjective or criteriological term. Manifest to WHOM? To Lover of Truth? So the minute that heresy became manifest to Lover of Truth, Bergoglio ceased to be Pope? What if heresy is manifest to 25% of Catholics, while 24% of Catholics decide that Bergoglio has committed error short of heresy, while 51% think that Bergoglio was spot on and committed no error. What's the objective status of Bergolgio then? Very few heresies are as obvious as "Jesus Christ never rose from the dead."
Since heresy must be MANIFEST with the certainty of faith, and not based on private opinion, due to the papacy being dogmatic fact, only the Church's authority can make heresy MANIFEST in such a manner as to bind consciences and to bind faith. In this way can the varying opinions on the papa haereticus issue be reconciled. So, while the Church cannot ontologically EFFECT deposition, the Church must make the deposition manifest to consciences.
In the meantime, we cannot have anything other than a state of doubt.