The election of John Paul II, whose death on April 2 set in motion this papal transition, offers hints of what may come in the next few days.

That conclave started pitting Giuseppe Siri, the conservative archbishop of Genoa, against Giovanni Benelli, the more progressive archbishop of Florence and protégé of Pope Paul VI.

In the first round, each received roughly 30 votes, according to "Heirs of the Fisherman," a book about papal succession by John-Peter Pham, a former Vatican diplomat. They seesawed until Cardinal Siri reached 70 votes, just 5 shy of white smoke.

But he gave a newspaper interview the day before the conclave and made comments that were viewed as critical of John Paul I, Vatican II and sharing power with the bishops.

The interview was supposed to have been embargoed until the cardinals were sequestered, but the article came out the day the conclave started. The cardinals received copies. Cardinal Benelli was blamed for orchestrating the early publication and distributing the copies.

Less well known are indications, reported by Mr. Lai in "Secrets of the Vatican," that Cardinal Siri was told that if he would consider Cardinal Benelli as his secretary of state, he would receive enough votes. But the Genovese cardinal refused, and the stalemate continued.

That opened the way to Karol Wojtyla of Poland. The next morning, he won 11 votes, and his supporters pressed the case for him over coffee. The cardinals were under pressure to act quickly to show the world they were unified. That afternoon, Cardinal Wojtyla found himself with an overwhelming majority.