Author Topic: 2038, That Magical French Date? (Read 1697 times)

Caraffa · « **on:** July 19, 2019, 02:50:34 AM »

A claim that has been repeated on Catholic sites over that past few years is that by 2038, the majority of the priests in France will have been ordained in the Traditional Rite by 2038. That is, that priests from the NSSPX, FSSP, & ICKSP will be the majority of the priests in France in 20 years. Our old friend XavierXem likes to repeat this in a number of threads; however XX was not the first to come up this and instead copies and pastes this calculation from the blogger Centurio as well as other sites.

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Meanwhile, as the SSPX continues to focus on the really important work of forming Priests, fostering Vocations, caring for orphans, teaching children in schools, forming strong Catholic Families, and the like, there's a good fruit of so-called Trad-ecuмenism: If we combine the Society of St. Pius X, the Fraternity of St. Peter, and the Institute of Christ the King, Tradition is expected to have more Priests than mainstream Priests in France in just less than 20 years. https://centurioweblog.blogspot.com/2014/07/traditional-priests-in-france-until-2050.html?m=1

In another thread, the claim is said this way:

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(3) Traditional Priests (SSPX, FSSP, ICRSS etc) account for about 20% of the New Ordinations in France, and are projected to increase to more than 50% of all Priests by around 2038.

Now, read that again. Your mind should recognize why that doesn't sound right. If priests from the NSSPX/FSSP/ICKSP make up 20% of the priests currently being ordained now, how are they going to be 50% of all the French priests by 2038? A bit too good to be true.

The mistake lies in a misapplication of the retirement rate. The person, Centurio, who originally calculated the retirement rate per year of those priests ordained in the New Rite applied that same retirement rate for those currently ordained. In other words, he applied a 20% retirement rate to someone just ordained in the New Rite.

So what percentage of the priests will the ConTrad groups in France make up by 2038? Once you work it all out with rough estimates, I'd say between 17% and 23% assuming current numbers continue.*

*None of this however, touches the issue of sacramental validity which is not in the FSSP's or ISKSP's favor.

MMagdala · « **Reply #1 on:** July 19, 2019, 02:59:00 AM »

I wasn't aware of that prediction about the French priesthood, but I am aware of predictions of that same year, 2038, as the Second Coming.

forlorn · « **Reply #2 on:** July 19, 2019, 05:47:51 AM »

Also there's not much reason to care if Trad priests become the majority if they only do so by a gigantic decline in NO priests. It's not like it's people switching from NO to Trad Catholicism en masse, it's mostly people switching to atheism.

SeanJohnson · « **Reply #3 on:** July 19, 2019, 06:10:05 AM »

Quote from: forlorn on July 19, 2019, 05:47:51 AM

Also there's not much reason to care if Trad priests become the majority if they only do so by a gigantic decline in NO priests. It's not like it's people switching from NO to Trad Catholicism en masse, it's mostly people switching to atheism.

That, and the fact that the so-called “trad priests” are really just conciliar priests who say a read Mass (accepting V2, etc).

2Vermont · « **Reply #4 on:** July 19, 2019, 06:47:21 AM »

Quote from: SeanJohnson on July 19, 2019, 06:10:05 AM

That, and the fact that the so-called “trad priests” are really just conciliar priests who say a read Mass (accepting V2, etc).

This is what I was thinking.

CathInfo.com

Author Topic: 2038, That Magical French Date? (Read 1697 times)

Caraffa

2038, That Magical French Date?

MMagdala

Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?

forlorn

Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?

SeanJohnson

Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?

2Vermont

Re: 2038, That Magical French Date?