We can argue about the later, but you missed the point, which was simply that this situation is beyond human resolution. Whether he's already deposed or whether the Church has to declare him deposed, the problem is the same, that you'll not get more than 1% of so-called Conciliar Catholics behind the election of a new pope to replace Bergoglio.
It does seem that the situation is beyond human reasoning, and yet we still try to reason it out, each of us with our own opinion on the matter.
It may have seemed beyond human reasoning that the Arian heresy would or could be defeated. After all, the Arians tended to be a violent bunch. They kidnapped pope Liberious, and they violently attacked St. Athanasius and his followers. More than once, I think. And, most of the hierarchy were Arians. But still, Arianism was eventually defeated. It helped that a pagan emperor insisted that a Council be called to deal with the matter (if only St. Pius X would have called a council!). It helped too that saints and laymen ACTVELY worked against the Arian heresy. They didn't sit around complaining that the hierarchy were heretics.