It's not just water; it can be any surface. Point is that when light gets concentrated at your eyes, as per the previous article, you can perceive a "reflection" when there isn't really one there, not the way you actually There are all kinds of things going on both optically and atmospherically.
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So a picture of a cloud with light on the bottom doesn't prove anything by itself.
Yes, some pictures show other phenomena. I don't buy the reflection at dawn though.
Even by the FE view, the sun is some 5500 km up there. How far away is the sun laterally at dawn? Let's be generous and say also 5500 km. So for the sun to reflect off something on the ground, that reflection would be about a 45 degree reflection from the ground, then reflecting off the clouds, then to me.
The clouds are at 10-50 km, small in relation to 5500 km. That's why I say "about a 45 degree reflection".
The big problem is that what I observe in the clouds doesn't look like a 45+ degree reflection reflection from the ground. I know what earthshine looks like. Especially at dawn, the clouds are illumined on the bottom and from the east, not on the bottom and from the ground.
A smaller problem is whether
land could reflect enough for your scenario. I could buy water reflecting enough, but not forests, and especially not forests in the dark behind a small hill at dawn. They aren't getting any light to reflect.
Speaking of which, how does a small hill cast a long shadow if the sun is 5500 km up and maybe 5500 km away? (If it's nearer at dawn, the shadow would be even shorter, not longer.)
I asked some questions, and I'll follow up with these, but as I just posted in another thread, I don't think there is much value in continuing this discussion.