I think that great careers are overrated IF you take living off of debt to the banks off the table. Many go to college and end up $50-$100K in debt before they can even start their "careers". Meanwhile, working for $15 per hour during those 4 years while living at home, they could put away $100K, resulting in a $200K swing. I've seen these stats demonstrated in a video called something along the lines of "the college scam". 4-year college programs are 100% scams, where you take maybe 1 year worth of classes in your Major and are required to take all these garbage "core" courses just to keep various Leftist arts, sociology, psychology, and Humanities professors employed when they'd otherwise have to bag groceries to make a living. I have degrees/Majors in Greek and Latin and self-taught myself computer science, and I've been working in computer science now for the past 25 years and could, within about 6 months of actual practical experience, run circles around nearly all "Computer Science" majors fresh out of school.
If a young man had even a modestly-skilled line of work, something that could be acquired by 6-12 months at a trade or technical school (vs. 4 years of college), and just worked after that, while living at home, until he was in his late 20s or early 30s, he'd be set for life ... without a college degree or glamorous career of some kind. But when you leave college with $100K of debt, no savings, and then immediately get married to assume a $250-$300K mortgage, you had better have some kind of stable and lucrative "career" to get by.
Unfortunately, I myself am caught in the debt cycle due to the time spent at seminary and graduate schools, etc. ... so that I had a very late start out of the gates, but I am encouraging my kids to stay out of this trap. I was in my late 20s by the time I decided to focus on making a living rather than a vocation.
I find your thinking on this to be very hypothetical considering you have young adults in your household.
For starters, why do you give the tradesman until age 30 before he's ready to marry, but presume the college graduate will marry at 22 when he finishes his degree? Even Grad school only takes 2 additional years (or just one if you pick the right program). That gives him 6-7 more years with a Master's degree in hand to work on his financial situation. College debt is a big question mark in this scenario, but that $100K of debt isn't mandatory. If you're not finding ways to bring that number down, college might not make sense for you. There are plenty of opportunities to bring that number into the range of a legitimate good value.
Next up is the high school grad who gets a $15/hr job. In 4 years, that's $115K before
any expenses. He's only going to clear that $100K goal if his parents are not only covering his housing and food, but also his car, insurance, gasoline, and pretty much everything else. If they're willing to do that, you'd also have to presume they'd toss +/- $30K toward college if he wanted a degree instead.
On to the "college core". Yes, it's dumb. But, it's 40-45 hours out of a 120 hour degree. That's 1.5 years, not 3. If you utilize dual enrollment, those hours are done for cheap/free before you're even officially a college student.
I'm totally on board with the idea that not everyone needs a college degree, but I don't think we should be telling absolutely everyone to avoid college either.
Keep in mind also, that from a young female's perspective, a young man's value has much more to do with his potential (personality, reliability, vision, etc) than his actual cash in hand. Once you're into the 30s, the young lady is going to be wondering why he isn't already married. I'm not saying that there's anything wrong with that sort of plan, but I am saying that it's another way he's going to have to prove himself and treating it like a "good rule" is a step too far imo.