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interesting newsletter
« on: September 29, 2022, 08:30:48 AM »
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  • This is a sample from an interesting newsletter. It is compiled by self-described ex-military analysts whose political sentiments often toe the ZOG line. This edition caught my eye largely due to the depth of lying by the central banks, Israel's offer to share nukes, and the increased number of widespread problems. I think this one should be entitled "war drums."

    InFocus: Weekly Economic Outlook
    Inside the Beltway
    Domestic INTSUM
    Geostrategic INTSUM
    Low-Intensity Conflict Activity Rollup & Outlook

    InFocus: Weekly Economic Outlook

    Investment bank research has turned markedly sour over the past few weeks. “More pain ahead” is the general theme, laced with some very specific warnings about a coming financial crisis. This is not limited to a few banks – everyone is saying something like this: Bank of America, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Citi Bank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Societe Generale, and others.

    First, notes from the past few days about, generally, more pain to come:

    Goldman Sachs Portfolio Strategy Research analysts noted that U.S. markets haven’t yet hit bottom, and are waiting on four indicators to call a market bottom: 1) low valuations, 2) growth deterioration stalling, 3) inflation peaking, and 4) investors more strongly positioned out of the market. They note that none of these market indicators are currently present, signaling lower lows in the coming weeks or months. (AC: Our favorite economist, Mohamed El-Erian, who’s had a great track record for the past couple years, notes that, “We are causing technical damage to the markets. People are more hesitant… [markets are having] liquidity issues… I’m staying on the sidelines for now.” This looks like another sign that markets haven’t bottomed out yet. – M.S.)
    The Goldman Sachs Commodity Research team warns that a constrained capital expenditure (capex) environment could linger, reducing investment into higher production: “Investors should remember that Fed-induced slowdowns are simply a short-term abatement of the symptom – inflation – and not a cure for the problem… With central bankers now focused on the costs of high inflation, there is a risk that the long-run cost of too deep a recession is the end of the capex cycle and a failure to grow sufficient capacity to debottleneck the system… [T]his capex cycle faces one further investment hurdle – ESG concerns – whereby capex is constrained as investors remain concerned over the true cost to society of their investments.”
    Rabobank (Dutch multinational): With the current geopolitical situation, “markets risk replaying 1987, 1994, 1997, 2000, 2008, the Arab Spring, 2012, 2015, and 2020 all at the same time… this is a global metacrisis.”
    Barclays (British multinational): “Don’t buy this dip”.
    JP Morgan Global Markets Strategy: “
    • ur perception that near-term recession risks associated with supply shocks has waned is accompanied by rising concern that central banks will, by intent or by accident, engineer a recession.” Analysts go on to say that an impatient Fed focused on inflation results will hike too much.

    Credit Agricole (France’s second largest bank): “Growing risks of a global hard landing… A more persistent inflation shock, growing stagflation and geopolitical risks plus tighter global financial conditions… [will lead to a] hard landing.”
    BlackRock: “Many central banks [including the Fed] aren’t acknowledging the extent of recession needed to rapidly reduce inflation. Markets haven’t priced that so we shun most stocks.”
    Credit Suisse: “The worst is yet to come… This pace of policy tightening has been consistent with recessions”. Six month likelihood of recession is 44% and rising. “Inflation is beginning to slow, but is likely to remain stubbornly high through next year.”
    RBC (Canadian multinational): “A number of the more financially and politically fragile OPEC+ nations have expressed growing anxiety about an oil price decline that is potentially placing their newly bolstered balance sheets at risk as well as the expansive spending programs that help secure social peace… [leading to more production cuts to buoy oil prices higher].” (AC: In the past three months, WTI Crude is down from $108/bbl to $82/bbl this morning, which has been a major driver in lower inflation readings since July. If oil reverses back up to $90-100/bbl, expect inflation to do the same. – M.S.)
    Citi Global Wealth (from last week):“Markets are deeply unsettled… A ‘rapid change of weather’ for the economy appears on the horizon… 10% [chance] of Robust [economic conditions], 20% Resilient, and 70% Recession…[The Fed is moving] so fast that the impact of their tactics is not apparent… How much tightening can the economy endure before credit costs rise and credit availability falls dangerously? … [T]he Fed’s medicine will have intended and unintended consequences. Its ability to counter mistakes will diminish over time… The case for a ‘recession’ or ‘stall’ in the economy in 2023 is quite strong and rising.”
    And now the specific warnings about a potential financial crisis:

    Morgan Stanley Global Asset analysts report that institutional and retail investors now own 23% of U.S. credit assets, which is up from just 10% in 2005. They note a large share of credit ownership has shifted from banks to investors due to higher yields, and cite an increased risk due to deteriorating credit conditions. Analysts estimate that the U.S. high yield bond, private credit, and leveraged loan market is valued at $3 trillion, or about three to four times the size of the 2007 private-label security subprime housing market. Ultimately, this means investors could experience heavy losses during a liquidity crisis or credit collapse, as opposed to well-capitalized banks which are better suited to absorb losses. Morgan Stanley analysts also expect loan default rates to increase, as leveraged debt maturities increase 10-fold through 2026.
    Earlier this month, Bank of America analysts issued a warning about the potential for a liquidity crisis in U.S. Treasuries. “In our view, declining liquidity and resiliency of the Treasury market arguably poses one of the greatest threats to global financial stability today, potentially worse than the housing bubble of 2004-2007.” At risk is the $30 trillion Treasury market seizing due to a lack of buyers. The New York Fed came out last month, I believe, and said that the Fed’s plan is to calm Treasury markets by saying that they’ll buy Treasuries to increase liquidity. The risk is that the Fed is unable to calm fears and encourage buyers, and the Treasury market crashes, which will spike yields and be destabilizing. This is exactly what the BoA analysts are warning could happen.
    Several banks are talking about the potential for another Plaza Accords. That was a 1985 agreement among the finance ministers of major economies to depreciate the dollar against the Deutsche Mark, Franc, Pound, and Yen due to the dollar’s strength. With expectations of a hawkish Fed hiking interest rates, the dollar is expected to continue strengthening versus foreign currencies. The dollar’s strength versus emerging markets currencies is leading to policy tightening and foreign reserve drawdowns to keep those currencies stable.
    And we’ll end on some comments from Fed officials this week:

    Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said that the U.S. economy needs a slowdown to reduce inflation, adding that there are scenarios by which the U.S. can avoid “deep, deep pain” during the process.
    Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins said that the Fed has to move expeditiously to bolster its credibility. (AC: Cleveland Fed Bank President Lorretta Mester also said this is why rates won’t be cut next year, presumably during a recession. The Fed sees rising inflation as a greater threat to its credibility than a recession. – M.S.)
    Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans said he expects a slight rebound to GDP growth in the second half of this year. (AC: Several investment banks noted the possibility that very weak growth – something like 0.5-0.8% – will keep the U.S. out of recession. – M.S.)
    Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neal Kashkari said that the economy isn’t yet fully feeling the effects of rising interest rates, and noted the risk of the Fed “overdoing it”. Kashkari said that the Fed “won’t make the same mistake” of cutting rates after signs of economic weakness. (AC: This is one of the big indicators of a deep recession: the Fed “overdoing it” by continuing to raise rates into an economic slowdown. Chicago Fed Bank President Charles Evans also noted this week that the Fed risks “overshooting” and causing an unintentionally deep recession. – M.S.)
    Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said that housing prices are still playing a “major” role in inflation. (AC: This is another reason why I’ve been saying the Fed will have to undercut the housing market, which is beginning to happen.- M.S.)
    San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said that about half of the country’s inflation comes from excess demand and that supply constraints can be resolved through reducing demand.
    St. Louis Fed Bank President James Bullard noted the risk of recession and warned that an unexpected macro shock could send the U.S. into a recession. (AC: A geopolitical crisis with China and an escalation or expansion in the Ukraine war are probably the top two geopolitical risks. – M.S.)

    WHITE HOUSE: In a first-of-its-kind summit, the White House will host key regional leaders from the Pacific Islands nations this week. The purpose of the summit is to rally support for U.S.-led alliances in the Indo-Pacific. The two-day summit starts on the 28th and will feature a dinner with U.S. President Joe Biden. The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said the “goal of the summit is not just to listen, but to put substantial resources on the table.” (AC: The drive to improve U.S. diplomatic relations in the region is due to Chinese expansion into the South Pacific, most notably its broad security alliance with The Solomon Islands which gave China a military foothold in a formerly pro-Western nation. The decoupling of the U.S. and western economies from China has also produced a groundswell of opportunities for smaller Pacific Islands nations who seek to become a “friend-shoring” destination for companies exiting China. If the Biden administration focuses on economic and military agreements instead of climate change and other social justice causes, it may find an entirely new set of friends in the Pacific. – M.M.)

    CONGRESS: The House is set to vote on an antitrust bill, while the Senate is expected to debate a stopgap funding bill.


    FOOD & AG: South American soybean producers are undercutting America-produced soybean prices, forcing farmers to move crops to shipping routes as soon as possible and contributing to a backlog that stems from low water levels on many U.S. rivers. The backlog is expected to get worse in coming weeks as drought conditions are forecast to deteriorate. – T.W.

    HURRICANE IAN: The National Hurricane Center now projects Hurricane Ian, now a tropical storm after crossing over Florida, will turn north towards the Carolinas by the weekend.

    BANK OF ENGLAND NARROWLY AVERTS COLLAPSE: The Bank of England, the world’s second oldest, announced 45 million pounds of emergency government bond purchases after a bond market crisis erupted yesterday. Plummeting bond prices threatened the forced liquidation of British government bonds purchased on borrowed money by a multitude of financial institutions. The barely-avoided margin call could have triggered forced liquidations of positions across markets on a scale equivalent to the 2008 world financial crisis. (AC: The U.S. Federal Reserve wrecking ball is just now crashing into the western world after decimating Asian currencies and markets last month. Global inflation, shortages of commodities, and excessive money printing of reserve currencies are driving a global recession. Expect trickle-down misery to hit nearly all households making less than $300k/yr and a continued push by ruling elites to depersonalize life for the working class. This financial and cultural trainwreck will likely result in a series of political leadership reversals similar to this week’s Italian elections, which saw a strong right-leaning sweep across nearly the entire country. – M.M.)

    ISRAEL OFFERS TO SHARE NUCLEAR SECRETS: In a speech to the IAEA, Israel Atomic Energy Commission Chief Moshe Edri announced Israel would consider sharing nuclear technology with Abraham Accords countries in response to the IAEA’s inclusion of “Israeli Nuclear Capabilities” on its annual agenda. Israel views this inclusion as a politically-driven contradiction of the IAEA mandate, advanced by the ‘Arab Group’ of countries.  Edri said he hoped increasing nuclear cooperation through the Abraham would advance “direct dialogue” in the region threatened by Iran’s “clandestine nuclear activities.” (AC: Israel is concerned about Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, but so are the Sunni gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. All can see an existential threat from Iran, particularly since Iran has spent the decades since its “islamic revolution” bullying and threatening its Arabian Gulf Neighbors. Israel is effectively giving an ultimatum to the IAEA that if it continues to blacklist Israel’s nuclear capability it will gladly share its nuclear technology with neighboring states who feel threatened by a nuclear Iran. This legitimate threat of nuclear proliferation should put some “shut up” on the IAEA’s plate. – M.M.)

    Russia-NATO SITREP

    RUSSIA: WEST’S REJECTION OF REFERENDUM A REFUSAL OF DEMOCRACY: Russian officials denounced the U.S.-led West’s rejection of Ukrainian Referendums as an insult to the democratic right of “self-determination.” In comments to state-controlled TASS media yesterday, Russian Central Election Commission representative Igor Borisov said the referendum complied with “civilized standards” and was ”valid de facto and de jure.” The official accused “powerful transatlantic political players” of ignoring the people’s “right to express their will” and “determine their destiny” for political purposes. Borisov called on the world’s countries to recognize the referendums as a historic triumph over “manipulative approaches and double standards” used to dominate global political discourse. (AC: With NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg, as well as several other European leaders, denouncing the Donbas referendums as a sham, the conflict in Ukraine is set to expand. Russia will likely annex the Donbas territories and declare them part of the Russian Union State, setting the stage for a territorial crisis which fits within Russian doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons. Expect Russia to not-so-quietly deploy tactical nuclear weapons into Crimea and Belarus as a start, but relatively soon after into the newly annexed Donbas territories. – M.M./R.P.)
    NORWAY DEPLOYS MILITARY TO PROTECT ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE: Citing increased security requirements, Norwegian officials announced the internal deployment of national police and military units to protect oil and gas infrastructure following the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. The move follows Monday’s warning from Norway’s Petroleum Safety Authority calling for extra vigilance against “accident” or “direct attack” after a series of unidentified drones had been sighted near the country’s offshore oil and gas platforms. Norway is now the largest gas supplier to Europe and possesses extensive energy oil infrastructure with 90 offshore oil and gas fields connected to more than 9,000km of gas pipelines. (AC: Several Norwegian offshore and coastal facilities are in close proximity to the bases of the Russian Northern Fleet on the Barents Sea (including the Polyarny submarine base), making them a prime target for retaliatory strikes on NATO/EU energy infrastructure since Russia claims US/NATO culpability in the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. Similarly, Norway’s newly inaugurated Baltic Sea pipeline also presents a target of opportunity for retaliation as it remains the sole baltic pipeline delivering LNG to mainland Europe  – R.P)
    LATVIA DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY ON EASTERN BORDER: Latvian government officials declared a state of emergency in the country’s eastern border regions in response to an increase in entry attempts following Russia’s mobilization. The declaration allows the deployment of additional resources to border checkpoints, train stations, and airports for the next three months, which government officials say will allow them to combat a predicted increase in illegal border crossings.  A similar order has been in place along the border with Belarus since August 2021.
    RUSSIA RESTRICTS ACCESS, OPENS CONSCRIPTION OFFICE ON GEORGIAN BORDER: Russian state media reports indicate defense officials have erected a Conscription center on the Georgian border to issue draft order summons to men attempting to flee into Georgia. The move comes simultaneously with an announcement of a heightened security alert and restricted access to the Russian region of North Ossetia after nearly 5,000 vehicles amassed on the Russian side of the Verkhny Lars border crossing into Georgia. Georgian officials say 20,000 Russian citizens have entered Georgia through the checkpoint in the past two days and warn they will be unable to “ensure order and security” should this number continue to grow.
    FRINGE GROUPS PROTESTORS CALL FOR RESIGNATION OF CZECH GOVERNMENT: Tens of thousands of alt-right and communist demonstrators took to the streets in Prague to demand the resignation of the Czech Government. Protest organizers claim the Czech government has failed to fulfill its mandate to ensure          ”security and economic prosperity” and instead serves as a puppet for the EU, America, and NATO. Security officials noted the number of protesters had significantly diminished from the 70,000 who marched in Prague on 03 September.
    Latin America SITREP

    COLOMBIA-VENEZUELA BORDER REOPENS: The governments of Colombia and Venezuela opened their border at the Simon Bolivar International Bridge yesterday. Crowds from both sides of the border turned out en masse for the event. Colombia’s new leftist President Gustavo Petro said the reopening was “a giant leap forward for human rights along the entire Venezuelan-Colombian frontier.” Gustavo is looking to resume $600 million in annual trade between the two countries after seven years of border closure.
    LEFTIST LULA POSTS INCREASING LEAD OVER BOLSONARO IN BRAZIL ELECTION: In a potential Brazilian remake of the U.S. 2020 election, former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has unexpectedly widened his lead in the upcoming presidential elections in Brazil. A national poll showed Lula with a 13 point lead over the country’s right-leaning, pro-Trump incuмbent Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil remains tense as accusations of vote-rigging and authoritarian responses to the election are being traded back and forth by “experts.” The election of Lula would follow a series of hard core leftist heads of state elected across South and Central America this year.
    China & Indo-Pacific SITREP

    NORTH KOREA GREETS KAMALA HARIS WITH TWIN MISSILE TESTS: South Korean defense officials revealed North Korean forces tested two ballistic missiles on Wednesday. The unidentified missiles launched 10 minutes apart matched a similar test on Sunday, flying irregular trajectories designed to confuse missile defense systems before landing in waters off the country’s eastern coast. Defense officials state the performance of the missiles bears a striking similarity to Russian Iskander ballistic missiles, with performance indicating a highly maneuverable nuclear-capable platform. The test comes less than 24 hours before a scheduled visit to South Korea by U.S. Vice President Kamala hαɾɾιs and in the middle of joint U.S – ROK military exercises off South Korea’s east coast.
    CHINA REPORTS LOWEST YUAN VALUATION RATE SINCE 2010: Despite a host of Chinese government interventions in its currency, the Yuan tumbled to a record low against the dollar yesterday. Bloomberg reported the offshore yuan, traded outside of China, fell to 7.2386 against the dollar at the close of markets yesterday. Coincidentally, the British pound sank to a record low against the dollar over fears its rudderless economy is in trouble. Investors are dumping local currencies to buy the dollar, a traditional safe haven, which has become even more valuable due to inflation-fighting rate hikes by the U.S. Fed.

    OHIO DSA PLANS SUPPLY CHAIN STRIKE: Leaders of the Akron and Columbus, Ohio Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) announced they’re organizing a strike next year to push for unionization in the logistics industry. Officials are hosting a “Logistics Call” tonight to recruit members of the industry for the strike planned for next year. The local chapters are reaching out to the Northeast Ohio Socialist Rifle Association, National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), and other left wing organizations. One senior member of the group stated that he holds membership in the Communist Party’s local chapter, which is willing to help organize the strike. (AC: Left wing groups since 2020 have tried to build renewed interest in union militancy, citing the power of big unions in the mid-20th century. Several attempts to foment a nationwide general strike have failed in the past couple years, although numerous smaller strikes have occurred. We’ll continue to look into the possible disruption this has on the U.S. economy. – M.S.)

    LEFTIST AID GROUPS PREPARE AID FOR HURRICANE IAN: The Central Florida Mutual Aid network and North Georgia Socialist Rifle Association are preparing relief efforts for victims of Hurricane Ian. Groups are still gathering supply lists, which include equipment for clearing fallen trees, mobile power banks, and mobile cooking stations. (AC: Organizing mutual aid and relief efforts has been a mainstay of left wing groups, which have focused on community outreach and organizing. While these are genuine attempts to help people in need, the strategic aim behind these efforts is intended to build popular support for left wing groups and causes. – M.S.)

    Washington, DC

    Size: TBD

    Activity: Far Left activists plan to protest the IMF and Central Banks in Washington DC to demand decarbonization and decolonization efforts. The protest will start with panel discussion then a planned “dance party” to disrupt IMF and world bank records.

    Location: 235 Carroll St NW, Washington, DC

    Time: 1800; Thursday, 29 SEP

    New York, NY

    Size: TBD

    Activity: Far Left activists coordinate March for Street Vendor Justice. Protestors demand resources, stability, and investment.

    Location: 1 Bowling Green, New York, NY

    Time: 1000; Thursday, 29 SEP

    Philadelphia, PA

    Size: TBD

    Activity: Far Left activists plan Security Culture for Activists Workshop at FDR Meadows.

    Location: 1954 Pattison Ave, Philadelphia, PA

    Time: 1800; Thursday, 29 SEP