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Author Topic: Average Family Size  (Read 3468 times)

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Änσnymσus

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Average Family Size
« on: September 14, 2018, 02:26:05 PM »
With modern infant mortality rate and fertility, if everyone dropped birth control and NFP, how many children would people have? This is with the natural space of time that a woman is not fertile due to breastfeeding and according to the WHO ideally she should be doing that for a year at least. How many supersized Duggar families, 7-8 families, 2-3 etc.?

Änσnymσus

  • Guest
Re: Average Family Size
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2018, 02:58:37 PM »
With modern infant mortality rate and fertility, if everyone dropped birth control and NFP, how many children would people have? This is with the natural space of time that a woman is not fertile due to breastfeeding and according to the WHO ideally she should be doing that for a year at least. How many supersized Duggar families, 7-8 families, 2-3 etc.?
Depends, in this scenario are people getting married at the average age they do now or at the average age they used to before contraception? Right now non-Catholics are only getting married in their 30s, but in a world without contraceptive use that would be untenable, because it's the contraceptive-enabled avoidance of pregnancy that allows them to delay marriage that long. So unless we're assuming the average person stops fornicating and still decides to delay their marriages to 30 anyway, people would probably be getting married younger again, in their early 20s. 
The time it takes for ovulation to resume after pregnancy varies wildly, even for mothers who do exclusively breastfeed. While the chances of getting pregnant while breastfeeding are very, very low(2%), from what I've read if the baby's nursing habits change it can cause a resumption in fertility. The most common figure I'm seeing is that breast-feeding reliably prevents pregnancy for 6 months, and after that it's less clear. 
Yet if women were getting pregnant every 6 months, or even a year, after they'd given birth to their last child, then families back in the day would've been gigantic. I understand that infant mortality rates were high, but the average number of births per woman would be well over 10 if that were the case, which it never was even before contraceptives. So I'm not sure what explains the disparity there. But regardless, if you look at the birth rate stats from before contraceptives the average family was never even close to 10 kids, and there's no reason to think it'd rise above that if contraceptives vanished tomorrow morning.  


Offline Matthew

  • Mod
Re: Average Family Size
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2018, 04:30:57 PM »
The Duggars are trying to win a prize.

They have their older kids take care of the newborns, so mom & dad can "get started" on the next baby...
Not to mention "breastfeeding? What's that?".

And I agree with most of the preceding post, except for the implication that getting married in one's 30's is enabled by the consequence-free fornication that only birth control can provide.

The American economy has changed, our culture has changed, the maturity expected of a child at age ___ has changed, and so on.  It's easy for youths to be employed when 95% of the economy is agriculture. But what about more advanced economies, with jobs that require skills? Either one needs a degree to be qualified for a job, or at least the education required to be able to work in a given profession.

Even if degrees were mostly bunk, I don't think most 16 year olds could write software professionally, or do any other professional job for that matter. You have to learn somehow, and it takes time. And children need to spend their school days on the basic well-rounded education, which only allows so much time for hobbies, side subjects, and side projects.

Kids under a certain age just need to play -- that's an absolutely ideal case for children. In other words, if you only have 1 child and you have 500 billion in the bank, and you want your child to be as successful as possible: then you really need to let him play. Creative, unstructured play is the best thing by far for children under a certain age.

Basics like farming and homemaking are "free" if the child is raised practicing these arts. But modern careers require more schooling -- on one's own and/or in a formal setting.

But even when the man's career is set, then young couples have to find each other. It's not easy. Traditional Catholics are so spread out. And even some Trads at your local chapel can be quite unsuitable -- they might have social, emotional, spiritual, physical, or psychological issues. And some might be Trad in name only. And even a young man and a young woman at a Trad chapel might be healthy in every way -- but just not be suited for each other. That happens too. You are comfortable with what you're used to, etc.

So finding a suitable spouse often takes time measured in years.

And as the saying goes, Irish birth control is "getting married late". (Ireland used to be a very Catholic country. Another related term: "Irish twins" which means a person has 2 children in the same calendar year.)

Offline Ladislaus

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Re: Average Family Size
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2018, 05:10:50 PM »
So finding a suitable spouse often takes time measured in years.

Yes, I was 32 and my wife 29 when we married ... not for reasons stated by the earlier post but because that's how it happened to work out ... per God's will.

Änσnymσus

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Re: Average Family Size
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2018, 06:28:18 PM »
Under normal circuмstances, I'd say about 8 children, if the wife is young.