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What city are you from, and on a scale of 1.0 to 4.0, where does it stand on the HousingPanic Richter Scale?
1.0: No housing problem - we didn't see much of a bubble like everyone else did, or there is no bubble because housing only goes up and up
2.0: Small housing problem - some speculative froth being washed out of system like a good enema
3.0: Big housing problem - flippers and investors really drove prices up, now they're gone, inventory rising, sales dropping, real prices falling, realtors dumpster-diving for dinner
4.0: Massive, horrific, historic, world-ending housing problem: You live in Phoenix. 'Nuff said.
Here is what some people responded:
Saturday, September 02, 2006 9:07:43 AM
San Diego: older established neighborhoods, 2.5
San Diego: new developments 3.2
Saturday, September 02, 2006 9:07:59 AM
lahaina hawaii 4.0
now in tokyo home of the previous 4.0
Saturday, September 02, 2006 11:16:45 AM
Sacramento CA 3.985628909
Builder 100k off sales
Saturday, September 02, 2006 11:35:14 AM
Bake McBride said...
Inventory at a 10yr high
Saturday, September 02, 2006 11:56:59 AM
Norfolk VA. around a 2 all the houses around my house have sold.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 12:18:17 PM
phoenix 4.0 baby!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 12:21:15 PM
Toronto - 2.9
Overbuilding condos and crappy cardboard looking townhomes like they expect the population to double or something. The jobs here sure as hell aren't doubling.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 12:50:41 PM
West Chester, PA (15 miles west of Philly) - 2.0 - notice that specific for sale signs have been on dislay for months.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 12:56:36 PM
Martha's Vineyard, MA
3.0 going to 4.0.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 1:33:11 PM
Boston: My opinion is 4, even though people are still in denial.
Washington DC: At least a 3, so many condos and town houses are for sale, but not many people to buy. You can not afford unless you want to live 50+ miles away from the city.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 1:41:05 PM
Almost no runup in prices, but foreclosures are high and increasing and inventory is high. So, the lack of flippers and price run up won't save us. In fact, foreclosures are high (already) because of the lack of a runup.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 2:36:32 PM
Irvine Ca. 3 if your talking realtors. 2 with the general public.
I can't believe how many people here have no idea what is going on with the market.
I was at a party last weekend, and had a neighbor try to bust my balls about it. Well, I ran down the numbers, and, told him where to look on the web.
On Wed. two houses on my block went up for sale! They both were bought about 1 1/2 years ago.
These to couples must has been listening.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 2:36:33 PM
Chicago area: 2.7 but headed much lower. There is a tremendous amount of inventory on the market and sales seem to be off 30 - 40% in most markets (for new homes). I believe we have not hit bottom yet - this fall should be very interesting.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 2:56:54 PM
Miami Beach: 3.0 going to 4.0. New condo inventory exploding due to speculators. Houses are being affected by overall inventory, but their owners are in denial.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 2:57:22 PM
Fort Collins, CO
people are still buying albeit at slower rates.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:08:54 PM
Miami by Neighboorhood (not a complete list)
Liberty City and Overtown (the ghetto) 1.5 some speculation and gentrification but the overwhelming number of armed drug gangs kept prices under control.
Miami Beach (South Beach, Sunny Isles, North Beach) Still alot of Section 8 houses brought the median down to around 500K. Would be a 4, but the condemned buildings and crackhouses 2 doors soen and across the street from new developments act as a pressure relief valve. So I rate it 3.2
Ft. Lauderdale built up as much as Miami, but with no following from South America and a much smaller percentage on New Yorkers moving there: 3.5
Weston, Coral Springs, Pembrooke Pines: West of the 95 and sitting on the banks of the Everglades, mosquitos, alligators and swamp gas Oh my!!! 3.7
West Palm Beach: Trailer Parks were supplanted by "luxury track homes" in gated communities. "1000 people a day move to Florida" is the county motto. It neglects to take into account approx 950 die a day, and at least that many leave the state every couple days. Shitty location, shitty houses, obnoxious home owner association fees and a town that shuts down at 9 pm everynight, except for the Pharmacy. Its open 24 hours Whoppeeee!!!!!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:14:20 PM
Sorry forgot to rate West Palm: A true 4, I would go higher if the scale allowed.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:17:23 PM
I'm with ETI on Boston, serious denial going on....bring on the clowns....there ought to be clowns...
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:25:57 PM
Orlando, Florida 2
Spec condos and high rise rental communities still going up up up in downtown, although some projects have been canceled. Sales have stalled, but not stopped, prices down by an average of $5000.00 in lowest 25% and $25,000.00 in the top 25%, according to TRACKER. But Developers and Flippers are still here. "Affordable housing" is the next BIG niche, according to a friend of ‘mine in the know’.
People I talk to are aware but doubtful anything earth shattering will happen here. All a bunch of Polly Annas.
The Copious amounts of Orlando Sentinel Developer Advertisements are giving away everything but the kitchen sink to entice buyers to purchase their “Single Family Rich” or “Little Boxes of Air in the Sky”, but have not come off of their asking prices.
Still much International 2nd home/vacation home business.
Hotel occupancy down 8%.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:26:18 PM
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:30:03 PM
Plenty affordable for median buyer if you take out an option ARM, but the oversupply in the further suburbs is a killer.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:48:46 PM
San Diego 3.0
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:54:03 PM
West Virginia is not on the scale.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:54:08 PM
san diego 2.8 to 3.5 varies by area of course
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:57:04 PM
1.0 if the priced doubling in 5 years is truly part of the oil boom, or
4.0 if the shit hitting the fan spreads to here.
Prices still skyrocketing here.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:57:51 PM
- There is a 9mo inventory of homes on the market and growing.
- Prices have doubled in the past 5 years.
- Now sales are down %45 from year ago.
- Homes are no longer affordable the workers making average incomes.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 3:58:27 PM
can we go that high?
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:09:56 PM
Victorville Ca. 3.0 then the 7.0 wipes out whats left
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:17:03 PM
Dogcrap Green said...
I pad $116 for my house in 2004. two doors down a new house was built on a vacant lot. Much smaller thn mine. Sold for $235. Was only on the marrket for 2 months. Considering he said screw market value this is what I'm selling it for. I would say that's pretty good.
Per your twist of the story. This was a home builder that sold for $15,000 below his asking price.
Bottom line is. THERE ARE BETTER OPTIONS TO RENTING. Put aside your raciest views and move next door to a Mexcan or black man. Sure crime a bit higher when you have black folks in the neighborhood. A kid raise by a black woman to grow up with a black person values stoled my $125 mower. A much smaller price to pay than what you raciest renters pay to rent in your white suburbia.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:18:18 PM
just moved from a dink town in Iowa: 1
moved to Phoenix Valley: 4
Oooops... gotta go!
Suzanne is calling with a "special listing" for us: priceless!!
The fact that my wife laughs even harder at... and is more disgusted by that video than me is beyond priceless!!! I love my wife! :-)
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:28:06 PM
realtors dumpster-diving for dinner
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:31:04 PM
Los Alamos NM,
2.0 going on 3.
Lots of inventory from when
we had the cerro grande fire.
Every one turned their small
lot into 4 town homes.
Prices seem to be falling
in the 20-30k range.
Sante Fe, the Santa Barbara of
New Mexico is falling much harder
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:32:40 PM
atlanta is 1.0. Inventory is well below normal levels with homes selling on average 30 days. Outlying areas may be at 2.0 but prices are low and inventory again below normal levels. No bubble here.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:34:24 PM
frank-- WV has many markets, don't know where you are, but around D.C. exurbs, Harper's Ferry, Charles Town & out to Martinsburg, there's been massive development, and inventories are high.
I'm not far from there, in MD exurbs -I'd give it a 2.0, maybe a smidge higher, definitely poised for a spike: high inventory, sales in doldrums. Local trades/construction types grumbling
about slow work, and sadly, getting laid-off. Local Lowe's & Home Depot not "crickets", but noticeably quiet, lots of close parking spaces.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:39:32 PM
Inventory very high around this city, and nothiing moving as far as i can see.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:40:08 PM
Iowa-prices stayed on historic price line-1% plus inflation.Some cities have new construction specs by builders hurting the market. The State is a .5 except for the people who bought new in the last 2-3 years . By the time they figure in costs of sale[taxes + realtor] they are upside down by about 5-10%
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:50:52 PM
Washington, DC 3.0
I believe the only question now would be the extent of the damage for the country as a whole. The local markets (Phoenix, Las Vegas, East Coast urban centers, CA, and Florida) are being hit the hardest with the greatest declines (all those incentives are at least 5% to 15% of the selling price)! However, when the declines can no longer be hidden in the incentive prices (20% and higher), the FED will ease rates. I believe we should see easing in the first quarter FY 2008. While the FED does look at all US data, Mr. Bernanke may be most influenced by what happens in the DC area. The condo developments are still going but I cannot see who is actually buing other owners who want to rent. The rents are too low to compensate an owner for the cost of purchase. Rents need to be 20% higher or prices 20% lower to be in equilibrium. A conundrum indeed!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 4:51:29 PM
San Diego is a 4, but half the people think 3.
I know someone that lowballed a condo builder in Carmel Valley with a wild mix of outrageous terms and and conditions and they accepted it! And condos downtown are already selling for 15%-35% less than they were a year ago according to a blog that publishes links to the tax assessor's site to prove it, but as usual the MSM's reporting of it is about 6 months to a year behind reality, hence the 3 rating.
I now also have co-workers and relatives who openly talk so matter of factly that when their loan adjusts they're just going to deed the house over to the bank because they can't afford it, as if they are returning something borrowed.
Everything has changed, even the psychology of how people view all this. For there to be so many REO and defaults this early in the mortgage resets means we are headed for a mild depression, not a recession : (
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:09:41 PM
Oakland, CA 2.5
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:13:17 PM
San diego 3 to 3.5 with heavy denial!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:14:33 PM
PHX solid 3.5 or higher, denial with onset fear, panic!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:18:45 PM
Thanks to blogs like this and books like 'Sell now. End of the housing boom', I saw the sheat hitting the fan last year. I was thinking of selling my primary residence in RIVERSIDE, CA (4.0 on the crash scale) and cashing out over 200k about 4 months ago. I procrastinated and now theres about 3 homes on my block sitting no bites. Too late. I am pissed. Only consolations I have are I have a fixed 30 year under 6% and I bought pre-buuble price and I just got a 20% raise at work. I am stuck in this sheat hole of RIVERSIDE, CA.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:34:11 PM
Pensacola east to Panama, Large inventory, Condo's, sfr's, second, third homes, vacation rentals!
Denial evident by High prices and inventories!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:36:47 PM
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:38:01 PM
I woudl have said higher in San Diego, but the POS next door to me just sold for $725k, and caused the Zillow curve to jump *UP*. WTF?
This is in Clairemont/Bay Park.
3593 Ethan Allen Ave, San Diego, CA 92117
Comparables in June/July of this year are:
$661k$, $620K, $700K, $718K, $505K
With $/sqft between $382 and $742.
These are actual sales, not asking, according to Zillow at least.
I don't get it.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:45:15 PM
Just north of Washington, DC: 3.0, possibly higher.
Flight to Baltimore jacked up prices in areas convenient for commuting.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 5:52:56 PM
Prices still slowly rising in Texas due to all of the refugees from California. There's too much land available here for flippers though. Plus the property taxes will kill any maniacal run-up in prices.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:02:36 PM
From comment above,
I agree, I just don't get it!
San diego, Clairemont/ Bay Park are older areas as well. It doesn't make sense. But when did this market ever make sense?
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:07:15 PM
within 1 mile of downtown: 1.5
Adams county and Aurora (east and NE suburbs): 4
everything else: 2.5 - 3.0
Denver prices ran up 1998-2000, then for the most part have stagnated
we would have cratered 3 years ago except for Big Al's funny money extravaganza
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:09:44 PM
Just went (Aug 27 to 31) to Texas from Calif. to look at homes.
Lots of inventory, lots of property (acreage) but it's true, prop. taxes and city taxes kinda even out the no state tax.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:12:48 PM
Look at the century ad Keith posted. There is alot of pressure in households to buy a house. There is also alot of denial in SoCal. Who ever would buy that house at that price in San Diego right now is just plum stupid. It's also one of the few sales taking place in San Diego.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:21:45 PM
Just down the street from me a POS which once had BARS on the windows was sold and flipped(!) for $800+ k.
My POS was overpriced at $270 in 2000, when I got it.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:23:19 PM
South Central PA:
2.5 - Yet still in the denial phase. The more the sellers refuse to adjust to true market prices, the uglier it will get. The hardest hit is def. the Marylanders who moved right over the PA border. Guess what happens is somewhat dependant on the Maryland market which is dependant on the DC market (like mentioned above).
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:30:10 PM
South Florida 4.0
Condos will depreciate 80% (back to their 2000-2001 prices. Single family homes will fair better because many are the same prices as smaller single family homes.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:37:12 PM
Typo. What I meant to say is that some condos in S. Fla. are selling for the same prices as single family homes. The condos will fare worse.
Extended families will have to learn to live together under one roof again. Maybe we'll see a return of family values again.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 6:50:11 PM
Philadephia single-family homes: 2.0
Philadelphia condos: 2.75
We've not had the huge run-up in prices, nor the high levels of speculative flipping that our other northeastern cousins (Boston, DC, etc) have had.
The one exception is our downtown condo market. Again, although we've not had the speculative flipping or insane levels of new construction, we're adding new units to a city that is still flat-to-declining in population growth. We're already seeing cancellations of some projects that are targeted to high-end, affluent buyers.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 7:06:39 PM
4.2 (Is that even possible?)
Saturday, September 02, 2006 7:31:57 PM
Pittsburgh, PA: 2.0
No speculators here (d'uh), but inventory has been slowly building, sales really slow. Occasional signs of folks thinking they live in the O.C.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 7:57:03 PM
Clearwater, Florida (Tampa Bay): Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Manatee Counties.
I'd say our area is in the 3.0 - 3.5 range. Not a complete melt-down, but a large crash is definitely starting to happen.
If I were to guess, I'd say the crash is the worst in Pinellas and Hillsborugh Counties. I live in Pinellas, and I can see it's very bad here. I work in Tampa, which is Hillsborugh County, and it looks almost as bad there.
Saturday, September 02, 2006 8:43:55 PM
I don't know that the scale mentioned really applies to SLC. You see, it's different here. SLC is doing now what PHX did 2004-2005.
Flippers are pushing up prices to previously unimaginable levels. A 3/2 tract house now goes for $250k-$300k. It went for $175k last year and about $125k back in 2000. That $250-300k house rents for about $1200/mo. Neg. cashflow is all the rage.
Everyone is getting suicide loans. Half the billboards on the fwy are REIC-related. There's all sorts of advertisements for "Real Estate investing."
Saturday, September 02, 2006 8:49:07 PM
I am astounded at the huge amount of Denial and the reasoning behind it!
Where? Anywhere and everywhere! So cal especially
Saturday, September 02, 2006 9:07:47 PM
Pressure to buy, from your spouse or 'life partner', realtor, etc., aside, is never a good reason to buy, ever!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 9:09:53 PM
Portland, OR: 3.67
CA equity migration soon to go kaput with Intel slashing jobs and the Boomer demographic drag setting in for buy-up properties.
Realtors turned flippers in late '04 or early '05, selling to each other at Greater-Fool prices, which spelled the beginning of the end; it was only a matter of time; time is now.
Besides, it rains here ALL THE TIME, there are earthquakes and volcanoes, the beaches are windy and cold, strange people who ride bicycles in the rain and snow, and people who drink too much coffee and microbrew, so you wouldn't like it; it's so depressing. Stay away!!!
Saturday, September 02, 2006 10:04:44 PM
road hog courier said...
Los angeles between 2.5 and 3.5 depending on location. Dwtn area 2.5
Coastal eclaves/westside 3
Innnor run-down areas 2.5
outer LA county burbs 2.5
north LA county 3.5
hi-desert la county 3.8
SFvalley 2.5 -3.0
south bay 2.8-3.3
long beach 3.0
Saturday, September 02, 2006 10:19:21 PM
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